AIR THREAT - UAV PENETRATION (1556Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Video intercept confirms a Russian FPV drone (unit "Rubikon") operating directly over Sumy. This indicates a deepening of the tactical reconnaissance-strike complex (TRSC) into provincial capitals.
VREMIVKA SECTOR - RF AERIAL STRIKES (1541Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army bombers conducted strikes on UAF reinforcements near Gorkoe and Novoe Pole.
INTERNAL SECURITY - NABU INDEPENDENCE (1543Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): NABU Director Kryvonos publicly stated the agency is free from Presidential interference, reinforcing institutional stability during a period of high-profile anti-corruption proceedings.
LEGAL - TYMOSHENKO PROCEEDINGS (1540Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): SAP has requested a 50 million UAH bail for Yulia Tymoshenko.
DEFENSE PROCUREMENT - CORRUPTION CRACKDOWN (1530Z, Prosecutor General, HIGH): A case involving a 1.4 million UAH extortion scheme during military drone (UAV) procurement has been referred to court.
MARITIME/GEOPOLITICAL - IRAN SANCTIONS (1551Z, ASTRA, HIGH): The U.S. has imposed significant new sanctions on Iranian security forces and international evasion networks, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman to de-escalate (1534Z).
TACTICAL CLAIM - KHORLY ATTACK (1538Z, TASS/Saldo, LOW): RF-installed official Vladimir Saldo claims a "cynical" UAF attack on Khorly (Kherson Oblast). [UNCONFIRMED]
LOGISTICS - RF AMMO DEPOT STRIKE (1546Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims the destruction of a UAF ammunition depot in the Kharkiv region via Kornet ATGM.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by increased Russian reconnaissance-in-depth via FPV drones and a broadening of the air threat.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains fluid in the Vremivka direction (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border). RF is actively targeting UAF logistics and reinforcements in this sector to prevent stabilization following previous maneuvers.
Weather: Continued extreme cold (est. -20°C) is driving both sides to prioritize strikes on hardened shelters, energy nodes, and ammunition depots.
UAV Corridors: Active UAV transit noted moving South from Snovsk (Chernihiv) and West past Komyshuvakha (Zaporizhzhia).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities: The deployment of the "Rubikon" FPV unit over Sumy (1556Z) suggests the RF has successfully miniaturized or extended the range of its strike UAVs, or is operating infiltration teams closer to urban centers.
Tactical Shift: In the Vremivka direction, RF is transitioning from small-unit probes to localized aerial bombardment (1541Z) to fix UAF reserves.
Logistics & Personnel: Reports indicate severe demographic strain in Russian ethnic republics, with 4% of working-age men from the Dzhidinsky district (Buryatia) killed (1548Z). Internally, RF is focusing on "transport terrorism" with 159 teenagers arrested for sabotage over three years (1543Z), indicating a persistent threat to Russian internal supply lines.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF continues to maintain defensive screens in the North (Chernihiv/Sumy) despite increased UAV harassment.
Readiness & Sustainability: Fundraising for UAF assets (specifically drones) is showing signs of "donor fatigue" according to prominent volunteer Sternenko (1552Z). This coincides with intensified legal scrutiny of drone procurement (1530Z), which may temporarily disrupt acquisition cycles but improve long-term transparency.
Air Defense: Active alerts in Zaporizhzhia (1550Z) indicate high readiness for incoming UAV/missile threats.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative Control: Pro-RU sources (Two Majors) are attempting to minimize the impact of U.S. maritime seizures by claiming the "Veronica" tanker was empty (1539Z).
Global Positioning: The focus on US-Iran tensions (1534Z) is being used by pro-RU channels to project an image of fading U.S. attention on Ukraine.
Domestic (UA): The messaging surrounding NABU and the Tymoshenko case aims to reassure Western partners of Ukraine's commitment to the "Rule of Law" amidst the kinetic crisis.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current tempo of UAV reconnaissance throughout the night (15-16 JAN) to finalize targeting for the massed missile strike warned of in the previous 24h.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized strike on Sumy and Kharkiv using the "Rubikon" FPV elements to disable local electrical substations and C2 nodes immediately preceding a larger cruise missile wave.
Timeline: 6-12h window for intensified UAV/FPV harassment in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect heightened air defense activity across the northern and southern axes. The presence of FPV drones over Sumy suggests a high risk of "precision terror" strikes on civilian or utility infrastructure. UAF units should prioritize EW (Electronic Warfare) coverage for rear-area logistics in Sumy and Chernihiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the launch point of FPV drones operating over Sumy (Infiltration vs. Long-range).
[HIGH] Verify the status of the ammunition depot in Kharkiv following the claimed Kornet ATGM strike (1546Z).
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the Vremivka aerial strikes (Gorkoe/Novoe Pole) on UAF's ability to reinforce the Stepnohirsk breach.
[LOW] Cross-reference the "6th tanker" claim with Western naval sources to confirm the scale of the Shadow Fleet interdiction campaign.
