AIR THREAT - MASS STRIKE WARNING (1522Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Intelligence indicates a high probability of a massed missile and UAV attack across Ukraine within the next 48 hours.
MILITARY AID - POLISH MiG-29 TRANSFER (1515Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister Zalewski confirmed the transfer of up to nine MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.
ENERGY SECTOR - KHARKIV RED ALERT (1516Z, Synehubov, HIGH): All specialized services in Kharkiv are in "intensified mode" following repeated strikes on regional energy infrastructure.
TACTICAL SUCCESS - LYMAN DIRECTION (1521Z, Butusov/SIGNUM, HIGH): Ukrainian SIGNUM Battalion confirmed successful drone interdiction of enemy personnel and transport in snowy woodland terrain near Lyman.
INTERNAL SECURITY - VAKS ANTI-CORRUPTION PROCEEDINGS (1505Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The High Anti-Corruption Court (VAKS) will consider a preventive measure for Yulia Tymoshenko on January 16 regarding parliamentary bribery allegations.
MARITIME INTERDICTION - SECOND TANKER SEIZED (1519Z, Hayabusa/ASTRA, HIGH): U.S. forces reportedly seized a second Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the Caribbean; thermal footage of the operation has been released.
GLOBAL HYBRID OPS - MADAGASCAR & ARCTIC (1526Z, Rybar; 1527Z, Parker, MEDIUM): Russia announced new military cooperation with Madagascar. Simultaneously, NATO activity in Greenland is escalating, with UK, Finland, and Estonia signaling military/officer deployments to the region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv: Civil and utility services are on maximum alert (1516Z). The focus is on preventing total grid collapse following the destruction of the primary energy hub reported earlier (1433Z).
Sumy: No new kinetic updates in the last 2 hours; however, the 48h missile warning suggests Sumy remains a high-risk zone for "buffer zone" shaping strikes.
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas):
Lyman Sector: UAF "SIGNUM" Battalion drone operations have demonstrated high lethality against RF infantry in forested areas (1521Z). This indicates UAF is successfully using FPV/thermal assets to compensate for RF's small-unit winter infiltration tactics.
Donetsk: RF continues to promote tactical "data visualizations" claiming territorial superiority (1502Z), though ground truth in areas like Siversk remains unconfirmed and likely static.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Stepnohirsk:[UNCONFIRMED] No new visual or official confirmation of RF control since the 1441Z claim. The sector remains the highest-risk area for a potential RF tactical breakthrough toward the H-08 highway.
Zaporizhzhia City: UAF continues winter training exercises (1502Z) and hardened infrastructure construction to mitigate the threat of intensified RF shelling.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Strategic Air Campaign: The 48h mass-strike warning (1522Z) suggests RF is synchronizing its missile inventory to strike while the energy grid is most vulnerable (post-Kharkiv strike and during the cold snap).
Global Posturing: The expansion into Madagascar (1526Z) and the reaction to NATO's Greenland movements (1507Z, 1527Z) indicate a Russian intent to stretch Western attention across multiple global theaters (Arctic, Africa, Caribbean) to dilute support for the Ukrainian front.
Tactical Friction: Internal RF morale issues are surfacing, evidenced by reports of a soldier fined for firing at a playground (1500Z) and continued logistical corruption arrests.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Aviation Modernization: The pending arrival of nine Polish MiG-29s (1515Z) provides a critical, albeit short-term, boost to air defense and CAS (Close Air Support) capabilities ahead of the predicted RF air offensive.
Training & Readiness: Intensive winter warfare training (1502Z) is ongoing, focusing on maintaining combat effectiveness in -20°C temperatures.
Rule of Law: High-profile anti-corruption cases (Tymoshenko, 1505Z) continue despite the military emergency, signaling institutional stability to Western partners (President Pavel’s visit).
Information environment / disinformation
Arctic Narrative: Russian channels are framing Finnish and Estonian officer deployments to Greenland as "aggressive" and "direct threats" to Russian maritime interests (1507Z), likely as a pretext for future naval provocations.
Strategic Compromise: Pro-Russian sources are heavily amplifying a quote from Germany’s Friedrich Merz regarding "Russia as a European country" to push a narrative of fading Western resolve (1514Z).
Energy Defeatism: Russian proxies (Basurin) are aggressively messaging that the Ukrainian government is "sacrificing" the people to the energy crisis (1510Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely conduct "shaping" UAV strikes tonight to locate active UAF air defense batteries in preparation for the massed 48h missile window.
MDCOA: A synchronized strike on the Kyiv/Dnipro energy nodes occurring simultaneously with a mechanized push from the Stepnohirsk breach to capitalize on localized C2 confusion during blackouts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm Stepnohirsk FLOT: Priority remains visual confirmation of town status.
[HIGH] Mass Strike Composition: Identify if RF is moving "Oreshnik" or other intermediate-range assets to launch positions (Kapustin Yar).
[MEDIUM] MiG-29 Logistics: Determine the delivery timeline and integration schedule for the Polish aircraft into the UAF tail-number inventory.
[MEDIUM] Greenland/Arctic: Monitor RF Northern Fleet movements for signs of asymmetric response to NATO’s Greenland mission.
