RF OFFENSIVE ACTIONS - KRASNYI LYMAN (0855Z, Slivochny Kapriz, MEDIUM): Confirmed Russian ground assaults in the vicinity of Dibrova. This follows earlier reports of probing near Ozernoye, suggesting an escalation of the RF effort to collapse the Lyman salient.
TACTICAL AVIATION KAB STRIKES - DONETSK OBLAST (0858Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in the Donetsk sector, likely supporting localized ground pressure.
ENERGY GRID INSTABILITY - MULTIPLE OBLASTS (0849Z/0857Z, MinEnergo/RBC-UA, HIGH): Emergency power outages have spread beyond Kyiv to Zhytomyr and Kharkiv oblasts. Planned schedules are currently suspended in several regions due to the cumulative impact of strikes and freezing temperatures.
RF TANK ARMOR UPGRADE DATA (0831Z, Philologist in Ambush, MEDIUM): Reporting indicates the delivery of 1,086 Dynamic Armor (DZ) kits to RF frontline units. This quantity is sufficient to up-armor approximately 150–200 tanks, primarily new production variants, reducing the prevalence of "naked" (unprotected) RF armor on the battlefield.
SUCCESSFUL UAF COUNTER-ASSAULT / POW CAPTURE - DOBROPOLYE (0855Z, Mykolaiv Vanek/Azov, HIGH): Elements of the Azov Brigade captured a 6th Russian prisoner of war during engagements in the Dobropolye direction (Donetsk sector), indicating successful tactical resistance against RF probes.
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES - SUMY (0845Z, ASTRA/Prosecutor's Office, HIGH): A Russian drone strike in Sumy Oblast resulted in injuries to four children and significant structural damage to residential property.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing along the Lyman–Dibrova axis as RF forces transition from probing to active offensive maneuvers. Extreme weather continues to be a decisive factor; an abnormal cold wave (–12°C to –15°C) is forecast for the Bryansk–Northern Ukraine corridor through Jan 20 (0832Z), which will strain both military logistics and civilian energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian power grid is showing signs of systemic stress, with unplanned outages now affecting the northern and eastern regions (Zhytomyr, Kharkiv).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Developments:
Armored Sustainability: The delivery of over 1,000 DZ kits (0831Z) suggests RF industry is successfully keeping pace with the modernization of tank hulls. This reduces the effectiveness of light Ukrainian anti-tank weapons (AT-4, older RPG variants) against RF mechanized columns in the coming weeks.
Lyman Sector Push: The focus on Dibrova (0855Z) suggests the RF "Zapad" group is attempting to exploit the forested terrain to bypass UAF strongpoints and threaten the supply lines toward Lyman.
Aviation/Strikes:
Donetsk Axis: Consistent KAB launches (0858Z) indicate RF aviation is prioritizing the suppression of UAF defensive positions ahead of anticipated mechanized pushes in the Donbas.
Sumy/Kharkiv: Sustained UAV activity (0841Z, 0850Z) targets logistics hubs and energy infrastructure, likely aiming to fix UAF units and prevent their movement toward the Lyman or Pokrovsk fronts.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Successes:
Dobropolye Sector: The Azov Brigade's ability to capture multiple POWs (0855Z) indicates high combat effectiveness and the ability to maintain the "security zone" in the Donetsk sector despite RF KAB saturation.
Legal/Strategic Posture:
War Crimes Framing: The SBU and Prosecutor General's Office have officially classified RF strikes on energy infrastructure as "crimes against humanity" (0831Z). This provides a legal basis for increased international diplomatic pressure and future accountability.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Smear Campaigns: RU-aligned channels are targeting the Head of the President's Office (Yermak) with allegations of draft dodging (0838Z) to exploit domestic tensions regarding mobilization.
Hybrid Distractions: Russian state media (TASS) is amplifying "jokes" by US officials about Iceland/Greenland (0849Z) to dilute focus on the kinetic war in Ukraine and project an image of Western geopolitical instability.
Domestic Stability: In Russia, corruption cases against high-ranking defense officials (Irina Yasakova, Oboronstroy, 0837Z) are being publicized, likely to signal an "internal cleanup" to the Russian public amidst high war costs.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground assaults in the Dibrova sector while utilizing the cold snap to maximize the impact of UAV/KAB strikes on the energy grid, aiming to trigger a civilian displacement event in Kharkiv or Zhytomyr.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RF forces, newly equipped with up-armored tanks (DZ kits), launch a concentrated mechanized breakthrough toward Lyman from Dibrova, seeking to seize the high ground before the cold weather eases and ground conditions soften.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine the unit ID and origin of the POWs captured by Azov in Dobropolye to assess if the RF "Tsentr" group is committing fresh reserves.
[HIGH] Confirm the current penetration depth of RF forces near Dibrova and the status of UAF's second-line fortifications in that sector.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of "ice plugs" and freezing temperatures on UAF mechanized unit readiness; specifically, the performance of Western-supplied fluids and batteries in –15°C.
[LOW] Monitor the movement of Iranian civil aviation (0855Z); while a de-escalation signal, it may also mask the delivery of additional drone components via "grey" cargo flights.
