RU TACTICAL AVIATION KAB STRIKES - SUMY (0803Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aircraft launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in Sumy Oblast, following the previous day's capture of Komarovka.
SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE ENGAGEMENT - KHARKIV (0816Z, Tsaplienko/UAF, HIGH): The "Khartiya" Brigade (NGU) repelled a Russian assault, resulting in approximately 70 enemy casualties and the destruction of the attacking force.
NEW MINING TECHNOLOGY DEPLOYED (0823Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF drone units have begun utilizing PTM-K2N anti-transport cumulative mines equipped with "Iskra" proximity fuzes for remote drone-delivered mining of logistics routes.
SIGNIFICANT UAF LOGISTICS CORRUPTION BUST (0800Z, Prosecutor General, HIGH): A criminal organization within an Eastern region military unit was exposed for embezzling 47 million UAH via fraudulent "paper" FPV drone contracts.
EU OIL PRICE CAP REDUCTION (0803Z/0816Z, Tsaplienko/RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): The EU has finalized a reduction of the Russian oil price cap from $47.6 to $44.1 per barrel, effective 01 FEB.
POSITIONAL FIGHTING - KRASNY LYMAN (0802Z, Slivochny Kapriz, MEDIUM): Reports of active positional engagements near Ozernoye, indicating RF attempts to probe the Lyman sector.
HYBRID NARRATIVE ESCALATION - GREENLAND (0827Z, TASS/Bild, LOW): Russian state media is amplifying reports of European troops arriving in Greenland amid alleged US-Denmark tensions. PROBABLE HYBRID IO.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains defined by RF efforts to expand "buffer zones" in the North (Sumy) while maintaining high-intensity pressure in the East. Heavy snowfall continues to impact the Dnipropetrovsk/Donbas transition zone, though RU tactical aviation remains active using standoff munitions (KABs). The geometry of the battlefield is expanding into the Suwałki Gap and Arctic regions within the information domain, likely to dilute Western focus on the Donbas.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Developments:
Remote Mining: The deployment of PTM-K2N mines with "Iskra" fuzes (0823Z) represents a significant evolution in RU drone-based area denial. These mines are designed to disable heavy vehicles and represent a high threat to UAF logistics "drone bridges" and ground supply lines in the Pokrovsk and Lyman sectors.
Morale and Discipline: POW testimony from the 27th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) (0821Z) highlights systemic issues, including the use of "disciplinary pits" (yamas) and high attrition in "meat assaults." This suggests that while RF command (Gerasimov) is planning large-scale maneuvers, the underlying infantry quality remains brittle.
Aviation/Strikes:
RF aviation is prioritizing the Sumy axis (0803Z) to consolidate gains in the Komarovka sector. This supports the assessment of a "fixing operation" to prevent UAF reserves from shifting south to protect the Dnipropetrovsk border.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Posture:
Kharkiv Sector: The "Khartiya" Brigade has demonstrated high defensive readiness, successfully neutralizing a company-sized RU assault (0816Z). This indicates that northern defenses remain robust despite the Sumy incursion.
Logistics & Readiness: The 47 million UAH fraud case involving "paper drones" (0800Z) is a critical blow to localized capability. This indicates a potential 500-1,000 unit shortfall in FPV drones in the Eastern region, which RF forces may exploit if they identify the specific units affected.
Internal Security:
Civil unrest in Kyiv (0801Z) involving fraudulent call centers and journalists suggests domestic stability requires monitoring to prevent RF psychological operations from exploiting "internal chaos" narratives.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
International Hybrid Ops: RU channels (TASS/Kotsnews) are heavily pushing a narrative of NATO preparation for war in the Suwałki Gap and "fragmentation" in the Arctic (0809Z, 0827Z). This is designed to create a sense of inevitable wider conflict and pressure European leaders.
Economic Warfare: The EU price cap reduction (0803Z) is being framed by RU sources as self-harming to the West (0802Z), while UAF sources (Sternenko) highlight the "managed contraction" of the RU coal industry (0811Z).
Domestic Morale: Zaporizhzhia OVA is actively counter-messaging with high-quality patriotic content (0800Z) to maintain civil resilience in the face of the Gerasimov-led threat.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB saturation of Sumy logistics hubs while utilizing the new PTM-K2N mines to interdict UAF reinforcements moving toward the H-07 highway.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Exploiting the "paper drone" supply gap in the Eastern sector, RF "Tsentr" group launches a mechanized breakthrough toward the Dnipropetrovsk border before UAF can backfill the embezzled drone inventory.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Identify the specific UAF units impacted by the 47m UAH drone fraud to prioritize emergency inventory redistribution.
[HIGH] Technical analysis of "Iskra" proximity fuzes; determine if standard UAF EW/jammers can pre-detonate PTM-K2N mines during RU drone transit.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU 27th MRD movements; assess if low morale is leading to localized mutinies or if the unit is being rotated for reconstruction.
[MEDIUM] Verify the presence of non-Danish NATO troops in Greenland to confirm/refute the TASS hybrid narrative.
