ALL-CLEAR ISSUED FOR KYIV/NORTH (0732Z-0734Z, KMVA/AFU Air Force, HIGH): The ballistic missile and UAV threat for the capital and northern regions has been cleared; no new kinetic impacts reported in Kyiv city limits since 0728Z.
GERASIMOV INSPECTION - DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION (0741Z-0744Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov conducted a field inspection of the "Tsentr" (Center) Group of Forces, signaling prioritized operational focus on the axis leading toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
MYKOLAIV KINETIC IMPACTS (0740Z-0745Z, Nikolayevsky Vanek/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Confirmed missile/drone arrivals in the suburbs of Mykolaiv following earlier ballistic alerts.
LVIV BDA UPDATE (0741Z-0743Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU/Alex Parker, MEDIUM): A "Shahed" OWA-UAV struck near civilian infrastructure in Lviv; Russian sources claim a missed attempt on a symbolic monument.
GROUND ROBOTIC ENGAGEMENTS (0758Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM): Russian 68th Reconnaissance Battalion reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian Ground Robotic Systems (UGVs) using FPV drones in the Novopavlovka and Torske sectors.
DIPLOMATIC EXPULSION FINALIZED (0729Z-0754Z, TASS/FSB, HIGH): UK diplomat Samuel Gareth Davies has officially departed the Russian MFA following the revocation of his accreditation on espionage charges.
ARCTIC DISINFORMATION (0734Z-0736Z, WarGonzo/RVvoenkor, LOW): Russian channels are reporting "rising tensions" between Denmark/France and the USA over Greenland. UNCONFIRMED / PROBABLE HYBRID IO.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has subsided, with air defense alerts cleared as of 0734Z. However, the operational focus is shifting toward the Dnepropetrovsk/Donbas transition zone.
Environmental Factors: Heavy snowfall is currently impacting the Dnipropetrovsk region (0750Z, Dnipropetrovsk OVA). Over 130 units of specialized equipment are engaged in road clearance. This weather significantly degrades visual reconnaissance and slows mechanized movement, favoring static defense or specialized drone operations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Command and Control (C2):
The arrival of General Gerasimov at the "Tsentr" Group's command post (0741Z) is a high-level indicator of an impending operational shift. His briefing with Colonel General Lyamin suggests a transition from localized tactical engagements (as seen in the 24-hour summary for Pokrovsk) to a broader coordinated offensive targeting the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
New Capabilities & Recruitment:
UAV Specialization: The RF Southern Military District (ЮВО) has begun recruiting for a "Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems" (0752Z). This indicates a move to institutionalize drone warfare at the regimental level, moving away from ad-hoc unit-level drone detachments.
Counter-UGV Tactics: The successful targeting of Ukrainian UGVs in Torske (0758Z) confirms that RF reconnaissance units (68th ORB) are now specifically tasked with hunting ground-based robotic logistics and fire-support assets.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Activity:
3rd Army Corps: The 63rd Mechanized Brigade is maintaining active operations (0757Z), utilizing precision strikes against Russian personnel sheltering in infrastructure ("pipes").
Robotic Integration: UAF is increasingly deploying Ground Robotic Systems (UGVs) in high-attrition sectors like Torske and Novopavlovka to mitigate personnel risk, though these assets remain vulnerable to RF FPV saturation.
Logistics & Infrastructure:
Crowdfunding: The "Sternenko" fund reports 3 million UAH raised out of a 50 million goal (0747Z), likely directed toward the fiber-optic drone procurement previously identified as a counter-EW priority.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Hybrid Distraction: Russian state and mil-blogger assets are amplifying a narrative of "Western fragmentation" regarding Greenland (0734Z). This appears to be a coordinated effort to divert international attention from Gerasimov’s front-line movements and the diplomatic fallout in Moscow.
Internal RF Messaging: TASS is emphasizing domestic "successes," such as anti-corruption raids in Kaliningrad (0741Z) and legislative support for pregnant women (0749Z), likely to bolster domestic morale amid the ongoing mobilization for the Donbas offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF "Tsentr" Group will use the current heavy snowfall as cover to reposition mechanized assets for a push toward the H-08/H-15 highways. Gerasimov's inspection likely finalized the timing for this maneuver.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Exploiting the decentralized nature of the newly deployed Ukrainian mini-CHPs, RF executes a concentrated strike on Dnipropetrovsk’s energy transit nodes while UAF road crews are hampered by the blizzard, aiming to freeze localized logistics.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[URGENT] Identify the exact location of General Gerasimov’s current C2 node in the Dnipropetrovsk direction for potential long-range fires targeting.
[HIGH] Determine the operational status of the UAF UGV units in Torske; assess if the loss of two systems (0758Z) indicates a localized technical vulnerability.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the frequency of "Geran" missions targeting Western Ukraine (Lviv) to see if the "missed" strike (0741Z) was a pilot error or the result of new electronic deception measures.
[MEDIUM] Confirm if the "Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems" (0752Z) is receiving the new jet-powered Geran-4 assets identified in the previous daily report.
