Situation Update (0730Z 15 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC STRIKES ON KYIV (0728Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Multiple explosions reported within Kyiv city limits following ballistic missile and UAV alerts.
- BALLISTIC VECTOR SHIFT (0714Z-0723Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A new high-speed ballistic threat originated from the South, resulting in at least three confirmed explosions in Mykolaiv (0717Z, 0724Z).
- LIVIV INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (0716Z, RBK-Ukraine/Lviv OVA, HIGH): Drone strikes overnight caused significant damage to the Church of Saints Olga and Elizabeth in central Lviv.
- DIPLOMATIC EXPULSION (0715Z-0727Z, TASS/FSB, HIGH): Russia has revoked the accreditation of British diplomat Gareth Samuel Davies, alleging he is an intelligence officer, and ordered his departure within 14 days.
- VIP ARRIVAL (0721Z, Reuters/Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has arrived in Kyiv for high-level meetings despite the ongoing kinetic environment.
- POKROVSK INTENSITY (0706Z, GenStaff via Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): 25 of the 132 combat engagements over the last 24 hours occurred in the Pokrovsk sector (approx. 19% of total front-line activity).
- REPORTED IRAN-ISRAEL DE-ESCALATION (0706Z-0717Z, WP/Operatsiya Z, LOW): Russian sources claim Moscow brokered a "non-aggression pause" between Iran and Israel. UNCONFIRMED/PROBABLE IO.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The tactical situation has escalated since the 0700Z report. The Russian Federation (RF) has launched a multi-vector strike package. While the previous 0657Z threat was from the North-East, the 0714Z threat shifted to a Southern vector, targeting Mykolaiv and Kyiv simultaneously with high-speed ballistic assets and OWA-UAVs.
Weather Factor: Fog and low visibility persist. Intelligence suggests UAF is increasingly relying on fiber-optic guided drones (0709Z, Sternenko) which bypass RF Electronic Warfare (EW) and perform better than traditional radio-linked FPVs in winter atmospheric conditions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation and Missile Strikes:
RF is executing a sophisticated "time-on-target" operation. By launching UAVs from the South (Pozniaky/Kyiv vector) and simultaneously firing ballistics at Mykolaiv and Kyiv, they are attempting to saturate the Ukrainian Integrated Air Defense System (IADS).
- Capabilities: Continued use of tactical aviation in the NE (0712Z) suggests a secondary effort to draw SHORAD away from the capital.
- Tactical Shift: Deployment of the 58th Combined Arms Army's drone units in the Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv sector is being reinforced by private/business-level Russian fundraising (0704Z, Dva Mayora), indicating localized logistics strain for specialized UAV parts.
Counter-Intelligence/Diplomatic:
The expulsion of the UK diplomat (0715Z) marks a significant escalation in the hybrid domain, likely a retaliatory measure for recent Western intelligence successes or as a "spoiler" for the IMF visit.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture:
UAF maintains high operational tempo in the Pokrovsk sector. Despite 25 major engagements, the line remains stable but under extreme pressure.
- Technological Adaptation: The "Sternenko" fund’s focus on fiber-optic drones (0709Z) indicates a tactical pivot to "un-jammable" strike assets to counter Russian EW superiority in the Donbas.
- Strategic Resilience: The arrival of the IMF head (0721Z) during an active ballistic alert demonstrates high confidence in UAF's "close-in" protection and provides critical political capital.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- RF Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels are heavily pushing a narrative of US-NATO "imminent collapse" (0703Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza) and framing President Zelensky as the "sole obstacle" to peace (0727Z, Alex Parker).
- Hybrid IO: The "Moscow-brokered Iran-Israel pause" (0706Z) is likely being amplified to portray Russia as a global peacemaker while it simultaneously strikes Ukrainian civilian targets.
- Internal RF Sentiment: Reports of a shortage of psychologists for Russian veterans (0700Z, NgP RaZVedka) suggest growing internal social friction from the "special military operation."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will continue intermittent ballistic launches from the South over the next 6 hours to prevent UAF Air Defense units from reloading or moving, specifically targeting logistics nodes in Mykolaiv.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the IMF delegation's location or transport route to Kyiv, framed as "accidental debris damage," to disrupt macro-financial stability.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the specific missile type used in the 0723Z Mykolaiv strikes (Iskander-M vs Oniks) to determine if sea-based platforms in the Black Sea are actively participating.
- [HIGH] Assess BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for Kyiv following the 0728Z explosions; prioritize energy grid impacts.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor Russian 58th Army frequencies in the Orikhiv sector for signs of a mechanized push following their recent drone unit replenishment.
- [LOW] Verify the "fiber optic drone" effectiveness claims via ELINT to see if Russian EW "dead zones" are being successfully exploited.
//END OF REPORT//
