Situation Report

Situation Update (0329Z 15 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• DEEP UAV PENETRATION - WESTERN UKRAINE (0304Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A Russian UAV has progressed from Zhytomyr Oblast and is currently at the border of Rivne and Khmelnytskyi oblasts, maintaining a south-western heading.
• SUSTAINED TACTICAL AVIATION STRIKES - DONETSK (0320Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast. This marks the third confirmed wave of KAB strikes since 0132Z.
• REPORTED ARMORED ATTRITION - KUPYANSK (0318Z, TASS, LOW): RF claims destruction of HMMWV and "Kozak" armored vehicles west of Kupyansk. UNCONFIRMED; single-source state media report.
• DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION - IRAN (0318Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): UN Security Council meeting scheduled for 23:00 MSK (20:00Z) today specifically to discuss the situation in Iran.
• INTERNAL RF DISCIPLINE NARRATIVE (0303Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin signaled intensified asset seizures from corrupt officials, reinforcing the "domestic cleansing" narrative identified in previous reports.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern/Western Axis (Rivne/Khmelnytskyi/Zhytomyr): The aerial threat has transitioned from Central to Western Ukraine. The UAV tracked at 0250Z in Zviahel has moved approximately 60-80km SW to the Rivne/Khmelnytskyi border (0304Z). The trajectory suggests potential targeting of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant (KhNPP) vicinity or the strategic rail junctions in Shepetivka.

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Kupyansk):

• Donetsk: RF tactical aviation is maintaining a high sortie rate. The 0320Z KAB launches indicate a systematic attempt to dismantle UAF defensive fortifications, likely in the Pokrovsk or Kurakhove sectors.
• Kupyansk: Potential localized RF offensive activity west of the city. While the claim of destroying HMMWV/Kozak vehicles (0318Z) is unconfirmed, it suggests RF is prioritizing the neutralization of UAF mobile reserve assets in the Kharkiv-Luhansk border region.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): No new kinetic updates since the 0247Z report of the "Bohdana" SPG loss. RF "Group Vostok" remains the primary threat to UAF mobile artillery in this sector.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Aviation and UAV Tactics: RF is executing a "pincer" aerial strategy. High-mass, low-precision KAB strikes are pinning down frontline units in the East, while long-range UAVs conduct deep-penetration reconnaissance or strikes against logistical "safe" zones in the West. The deep penetration into Rivne/Khmelnytskyi suggests the use of high-endurance variants or specialized routing to bypass Air Defense (AD) pockets.

Tactical Adaptation: RF continues to emphasize FPV drone proficiency (0303Z) as a primary method for vehicle interdiction. The focus on light armored vehicles (HMMWV, Kozak) in the Kupyansk sector (0318Z) indicates an intent to degrade UAF tactical mobility and casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) capabilities.

Logistics and Sustainment: The PTM-3 magnetic mine threat on the Kovel-Kyiv rail line (previous daily report) remains high. Western-bound UAVs may be tasked with spotting repair crews or identifying stationary trains halted by mine-clearing operations.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and AD units are being repositioned to intercept the westward-moving UAV.
• Maneuver: UAF units in the Kupyansk sector appear to be under increased observation; standard operational security (OPSEC) regarding vehicle concealment is critical given the reported FPV and armor losses.

Information environment / disinformation

• Internal Russian Stability: High-profile anti-corruption rhetoric (0303Z, 0313Z) is being used to project a "clean" and disciplined rear area to the Russian public. This is a cognitive maneuver to offset the economic pressures of the war.
• International Pressure: The announcement of the UNSC meeting on Iran (0318Z) will likely be used by RF-aligned media to pivot global attention away from the Sumy/Donetsk offensives and toward "Western interference" in the Middle East.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): The UAV in the Rivne/Khmelnytskyi region will attempt a kinetic strike or electronic intelligence (ELINT) collection on critical infrastructure before dawn. KAB strikes in Donetsk will continue into the morning as RF attempts to capitalize on night-time suppression.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the "Geran-4" (jet-powered) assets identified in the Jan 14 daily report to intercept UAF reconnaissance drones over the Kupyansk sector, facilitating a mechanized push toward the Oskil River.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [HIGH] Confirm current status of the UAV on the Rivne/Khmelnytskyi border; identify specific target profile (Energy vs. Rail).
2. [MEDIUM] Corroborate TASS claims of armored vehicle losses west of Kupyansk via SIGINT or independent visual confirmation.
3. [HIGH] Technical evaluation of FPV drone footage (0303Z) to determine if RF has integrated thermal/AI-assisted terminal guidance in the Kupyansk/Donetsk sectors.

//END OF REPORT//