Situation Update (0259Z 15 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- TACTICAL AVIATION ESCALATION - DONETSK (0241Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast. This follows the 0132Z KAB strikes, indicating a sustained multi-wave aerial bombardment.
- REPORTED ATTRITION OF HIGH-VALUE ASSET - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0247Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF claims destruction of a UAF "Bohdana" Self-Propelled Gun (SPG) by the 305th Artillery Brigade (5th Army, Group "Vostok"). Action reportedly involved a "Lancet" loitering munition and a "KVN" operator. UNCONFIRMED but supported by alleged video evidence.
- WESTWARD UAV PENETRATION - ZHYTOMYR (0250Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A UAV is currently transiting Zviahel district, Zhytomyr Oblast, maintaining a western heading. This is a continuation of the 0155Z vector.
- REINFORCED PEACE NARRATIVE WEDGE (0249Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Direct reporting of Donald Trump’s assertions that Ukraine, rather than Russia, is delaying a peace settlement. This aligns with pro-RF information operations identified in the 0223Z report.
- REGIONAL INSTABILITY - IRAN (0247Z-0248Z, RBK-Ukraine/Two Majors, MEDIUM): Conflicting reports of internal unrest/violence against protesters in Iran vs. diplomatic overtures from FM Abbas Araghchi regarding "readiness for concessions."
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Zhytomyr/Chernihiv):
The aerial threat in the North is persistent. The UAV in Zviahel (0250Z) has bypassed the Korosten area and is moving West, likely targeting logistical nodes or energy infrastructure in Western Ukraine. The Chernihiv UAV (0207Z) trajectory toward Nizhyn remains a concern for the Kyiv defensive perimeter.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk):
Tactical aviation remains the primary threat. Frequent KAB launches (0241Z) suggest RF is targeting UAF hardening positions or recently rotated units along the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove line.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
The reported loss of a "Bohdana" SPG (0247Z) indicates that RF "Group Vostok" has deployed effective hunter-killer teams (Lancet + KVN/spotter). This correlates with the 0223Z report of clearing operations in Huliaipole, suggesting an active RF effort to degrade UAF counter-battery capabilities in this sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Tactics:
RF is utilizing a "pulsed" aviation strategy—waves of UAVs to saturate AD in the North, followed by high-mass KAB strikes in the East. This forces UAF to choose between protecting rear-area infrastructure (Zhytomyr) and front-line combat units (Donetsk).
Hunter-Killer Team Adaptation:
The mention of a "KVN operator" alongside "Lancet" (0247Z) may refer to a specialized EW-reconnaissance or laser-designation asset. The 5th Army's success against the "Bohdana" suggests highly coordinated tactical C2 between drone pilots and artillery spotters.
Logistical Sabotage (Daily Context):
Persistent threat of PTM-3 magnetic mines on the Kovel-Kyiv rail line (re: Jan 14 report) remains a critical secondary threat to Western aid shipments moving toward the active Zhytomyr UAV sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are engaged in Zviahel district.
- Counter-Battery: UAF artillery in the Zaporizhzhia sector is under heightened threat from loitering munitions. Recommendation: Increase relocation frequency ("shoot-and-scoot") and deploy additional anti-drone netting/EW for all SPG units.
Information environment / disinformation
- Strategic Isolation: The synchronization of Trump’s "Ukraine is delaying peace" rhetoric with Iranian diplomatic "concession" signals (0248Z-0249Z) is being weaponized to portray Ukraine as the sole belligerent in a global context.
- Hybrid Distraction: Heavy reporting on Russian domestic corruption (Adygea, 0257Z) and criminal cases (Khabarovsk, 0241Z) serves as a domestic "cleansing" narrative to bolster the image of the Russian state's integrity despite the ongoing war.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continuation of KAB strikes in the East through dawn. The Zhytomyr UAV will likely attempt to strike an energy or transit target in the Rivne/Lviv direction or orbit to conduct reconnaissance of rail traffic.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Coordinated strike by "Geran-4" jet-UAVs (identified Jan 14) against UAF AD positions that have been revealed while engaging the current Shahed/KAB waves.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Technical identification of "KVN" asset mentioned in Zaporizhzhia—is this a new EW platform or a specific designation for a "Lancet" guidance relay?
- [HIGH] Confirm status of "Bohdana" SPG in Zaporizhzhia; assess if this indicates a breakthrough in RF's ability to track mobile UAF artillery.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor Iranian internal stability—a significant escalation in protests (0247Z) could impact the immediate delivery schedule of Shahed components.
//END OF REPORT//
