Situation Update (0229Z 15 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- NEW AERIAL THREAT - CHERNIHIV SECTOR (0207Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A UAV has entered Novhorod-Siverskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast, moving on a south-western course. This represents a second distinct aerial vector alongside the previously reported Zhytomyr UAV.
- REPORTED COMSEC BREACH - HULIAIPOLE (0223Z, TASS, LOW): RF claims to have gained access to UAF service chats following the capture of a company commander’s mobile device during clearing operations in Huliaipole. UNCONFIRMED.
- DIPLOMATIC LAWFARE - BALTIC FRONT (0202Z, TASS, HIGH): Russian Investigative Committee has charged Estonian PM Kaja Kallas in absentia for the "destruction of Soviet monuments," escalating legal friction with NATO's eastern flank.
- AMPLIFIED STRATEGIC DISCOURSE (0223Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): Pro-RF channels are aggressively circulating claims attributed to Donald Trump, framing President Zelensky as the primary obstacle to a peace settlement.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Zhytomyr):
The aerial threat has expanded. While one UAV remains active in the Korosten district (0155Z report), a new threat has emerged in the Novhorod-Siverskyi district (0207Z). The south-western heading of the Chernihiv UAV suggests a possible trajectory toward Nizhyn or Kyiv’s outer northern suburbs.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk):
KAB strikes (confirmed at 0132Z) are likely ongoing. No new kinetic changes reported in the last 30 minutes, but the sustained aviation presence suggests high-intensity preparation for ground assaults at dawn.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
The report of a captured commander's phone in Huliaipole (0223Z) suggests active "clearing" or reconnaissance-in-force operations in this sector. If the COMSEC breach is legitimate, RF tactical units may possess real-time visibility into local UAF troop movements and fire support requests.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Intelligence Exploitation:
The claim of accessing UAF service chats via captured hardware (0223Z) indicates an RF focus on immediate tactical SIGINT/HUMINT exploitation. This poses a localized threat to operational security (OPSEC) in the Huliaipole sector.
Multi-Vector Aerial Harassment:
The simultaneous presence of UAVs in Zhytomyr and Chernihiv, combined with KAB strikes in the East, is designed to overstretch UAF Air Defense (AD) and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) ahead of the 0600Z-0900Z window.
Hybrid Lawfare:
The charges against Kaja Kallas (0202Z) are an extension of RF "historical memory" operations, intended to provide domestic legal justification for aggressive posturing against the Baltic states and to intimidate NATO leadership.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense: MFGs are currently tracking two distinct UAV vectors (North-West and North). AD remains in high-alert status for potential follow-on missile launches or jet-powered "Geran-4" interceptions.
- Electronic Warfare (EW): Recommendation issued for tactical units in the Huliaipole sector to immediately transition to secondary/backup encrypted communication channels and implement remote-wipe protocols on all mobile devices.
Information environment / disinformation
- Trump-Zelensky Wedge: RF state media is weaponizing US political rhetoric (0139Z, 0223Z) to undermine Ukrainian domestic morale and portray the GOU as diplomatically isolated.
- Cultural Normalization: TASS reporting on Russian "victories" in feline competitions in Croatia (0212Z) serves as soft-power filler to project a "business as usual" image despite international sanctions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV probing of northern AD corridors to identify gaps. Likely tactical pushes in the Huliaipole sector if RF units believe they have exploited the reported chat data.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF use of "Geran-4" jet-UAVs (identified in Jan 14 report) to intercept UAF logistical drones in the Pokrovsk or Huliaipole sectors, combined with localized breakthroughs facilitated by the reported COMSEC breach.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Verify the status of the Company Commander (Huliaipole) and the level of potential compromise regarding Signal/Telegram/WhatsApp service chats.
- [HIGH] Identify if the Novhorod-Siverskyi UAV (0207Z) is a reconnaissance platform (Orlan-10/Supercam) or a strike asset (Shahed).
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for increased RF tactical aviation sorties originating from Belarus or southern RF airbases following the reopening of Iranian airspace (0148Z).
//END OF REPORT//
