KAB STRIKES COMMENCED - DONETSK SECTOR (0132Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) by RF tactical aviation against targets in Donetsk Oblast. This follows the 0123Z detection of increased aviation activity.
UAV PROGRESSION - KOROSTEN DISTRICT (0155Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A UAV has reached the Korosten district of Zhytomyr Oblast, currently maintaining a north-western heading. This indicates a deviation or specific vectoring toward northern logistics or energy hubs near the Belarusian border.
AMPLIFIED NARRATIVE - ZELENSKY AS "OBSTACLE" (0139Z, RBK-UA/Reuters, HIGH): Strategic information pressure is peaking with reports that Donald Trump explicitly identifies President Zelensky, rather than Vladimir Putin, as the primary barrier to a peace settlement.
REGIONAL STRATEGIC SHIFT - IRANIAN AIRSPACE (0148Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Iran has reopened its airspace. This potentially signals a de-escalation in Middle Eastern tensions that could allow for stabilized RF-Iran logistical corridors.
PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS - "SVO" PROPAGANDA (0135Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Release of a high-production military montage ("Assault") performed by pro-RF artist Chicherina, aimed at domestic RF morale and glorifying frontline storm units.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Zhytomyr/Korosten): The UAV threat is now localized in the Korosten district. The north-western vector (0155Z) is significant as it moves toward critical rail junctions and potentially the Rivne/Volyn oblast boundaries. This route may be designed to avoid established AD corridors in central Zhytomyr.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk): The transition from "activity detected" to "active KAB launches" (0132Z) indicates an active fire mission. Likely targets include UAF defensive fortifications, command posts, or logistical nodes in the Pokrovsk or Bakhmut-Kramatorsk sectors.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/ZNPP): No new kinetic updates. Presence of RF hardware at ZNPP (from 14 JAN report) remains a primary shield for RF EW and C2 assets in the sector.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Aviation Courses of Action: RF is currently executing a coordinated strike window. Tactical aviation is providing heavy fire support (KABs) in the East while a single or small group of UAVs maintains a "deep-look" or harassment profile in the North-West.
Adaptation: The UAV's north-western heading in Korosten suggests an intent to probe the "Northern Border" AD posture or target the H-07/M-07 logistics lines that facilitate western aid flow.
Logistics: The reopening of Iranian airspace (0148Z) may facilitate the transit of additional UAV components or ballistic munitions, potentially addressing RF sustainment requirements for the "Geran-4" program mentioned in the 14 JAN report.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively vectoring Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) toward the Korosten axis.
Information Defense: Ukrainian media (RBK-UA) is now reacting to the Trump/Zelensky narrative (0139Z), necessitating a high-level strategic communication response from the GOU to maintain international and domestic cohesion.
Information environment / disinformation
Cognitive Target: International Support. The narrative framing Zelensky as the obstacle to peace (0139Z) is a "wedge" operation. By citing Western news agencies (Reuters), RF-aligned sources are attempting to validate the claim that Ukraine is losing its primary diplomatic shield (the US).
Diversionary Propaganda: The Italian/Greenland narrative (0133Z) is assessed as low-credibility "noise" intended to portray NATO members as strategically incompetent and distracted by hypothetical US aggression.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued KAB strikes throughout the pre-dawn hours in Donetsk to degrade UAF frontline positions. The Korosten UAV will likely attempt a strike on a specific high-value target (HVTs) such as a rail transformer or fuel depot before 0400Z.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A sudden escalation in Sumy (building on the Komarovka capture) synchronized with the current aviation activity to force a breakthrough while UAF air defense is occupied with Zhytomyr/Donetsk threats.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the Korosten UAV is a standard "Shahed" or the newer jet-powered "Geran-4" capable of air-to-air engagement.
[HIGH] Monitor for RF mechanized movement in the Sumy "buffer zone" following KAB activity.
[HIGH] Assess the impact of KAB strikes in Donetsk on UAF C2 nodes and frontline casualty rates.
[MEDIUM] Track the specific timing of the Trump-Machado meeting (Thursday 20:30 MSK) for potential shifts in US-RF-Venezuela energy/diplomatic alignment.
