NORTHERN AXIS: RF SEVER GROUP CLAIMS KOMAROVKA "MOPPED UP" (1251Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF MoD released video evidence of assault units entering Komarovka (Sumy region) and clearing buildings. While UAF has not officially confirmed the loss, the visual evidence increases confidence in the RF advance.
STRATEGIC REAR (RF): EMERGENCY DECLARED IN ROSTOV OBLAST (1232Z, TASS, HIGH): A state of emergency (SOE) has been declared in the Myasnikovsky district (Chaltyr industrial zone) following a successful UAF night UAV strike.
TECHNICAL ADAPTATION: SHAHED UAVS EQUIPPED WITH MISSILES (1245Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Flash, MEDIUM): Ukrainian radio specialist "Flash" reports daily shoot-downs of new Shahed-type UAV variants modified to carry missiles. This represents a significant escalation in RF loitering munition lethality.
INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV GRID STABILIZATION PROGRESSING (1239Z, 1245Z, RBK-Ukr/Svyrydenko, HIGH): Emergency outages in Buchanskyi district have been canceled. Right Bank Kyiv is now on a predictable 5h ON / 5h OFF rotation, indicating improved C2 efficiency under the new Ministry of Energy leadership.
TACTICAL SECTOR: 3AC NEUTRALIZES RF FPV AMBUSH (1234Z, Butusov/3AC, HIGH): The UAF 3rd Army Corps successfully detected and destroyed RF FPV "waiting mode" drones in the Lyman direction, preventing a planned ambush.
INTERNAL SECURITY: MAJOR ANTI-CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION (1230Z, OPG, HIGH): The Office of the Prosecutor General has opened a criminal case against a former prosecutor regarding illegal pension schemes, signaling an intensified domestic purge to maintain public morale.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo remains high despite sub-zero temperatures. RF forces are attempting to consolidate gains in the north (Sumy/Komarovka) while UAF focuses on degrading RF strategic logistics in Rostov and maintaining defensive integrity in the Lyman sector.
Battlefield Geometry: RF "Sever" Group is attempting to establish a viable bridgehead in Komarovka to threaten the Sumy-Kharkiv corridor. In the South, RF is maintaining pressure on Zaporizhzhia through localized drone and artillery strikes.
Infrastructure Status: Significant recovery in the Kyiv energy sector. The transition to scheduled outages in Bucha and Kyiv's Right Bank suggests the grid has survived the initial shock of recent strikes, though it remains fragile.
Weather: -18°C to -22°C range across the theater. Ground remains firm for mechanized movement, but high fuel consumption and battery degradation are impacting drone operations on both sides.
Technical Adaptation: The deployment of missile-carrying Shaheds (1245Z) indicates a pivot from simple "kamikaze" strikes to a multi-role aerial platform capable of standoff engagements or releasing sub-munitions. This complicates AD target prioritization.
Course of Action (COA): RF is utilizing "small-group" infiltration tactics (verified in Komarovka video) to bypass UAF heavy fire zones. This reduces visibility to ISR but increases their vulnerability to localized UAF counter-attacks if detected early.
Personnel/Morale: Internal reporting from the RF 106th VDV (119th Regiment) indicates persistent issues with pay deception (1259Z), suggesting that even elite RF units are facing sustainment-driven morale degradation.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Operational Success: The 3rd Army Corps (Lyman direction) demonstrated superior EW/ISR integration by identifying RF FPV "waiting" drones before they could be triggered, preserving UAF mechanized assets in the sector.
Defensive Posture: UAF AD units are maintaining a "near-daily" interception rate against the new Shahed variants, although the technical shift requires rapid software updates for EW jamming systems.
Rear Stability: The OPG's focus on prosecutor corruption (1230Z) is a critical stabilization measure to counter RF narratives of a "failing state" (1237Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain) (IPB Step 4)
RF Hybrid Ops: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, TASS) are heavily amplifying Donald Trump’s Greenland/NATO rhetoric (1247Z, 1249Z) to distract from the Rostov SOE and VDV morale issues.
Counter-Information: UAF sources are effectively using combat GoPro footage (1234Z) for both tactical BDA and recruitment, maintaining high domestic engagement despite the energy crisis.
RF Domestic Control: Putin’s focus on water supply in occupied DPR (1239Z) is a calibrated propaganda effort to project "normalcy" and administrative control over annexed territories.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will attempt to expand the Komarovka bridgehead toward the regional highway to disrupt UAF reinforcements moving toward Lyman. Expect a massed "Shahed-Missile" strike on energy nodes in Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia within the next 48 hours to test the new scheduled power limits.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the technical breakthrough of missile-carrying UAVs to target UAF AD radar nodes specifically, followed by a concentrated tactical aviation push in the Sumy sector to seize key high ground before the freeze ends.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Technical exploitation of the "Shahed-with-missile" wreckage is required to determine guidance type (laser, IR, or GPS) and range of the carriage missile.
[HIGH] Confirm if UAF forces have completely withdrawn from Komarovka or if they maintain a presence in the surrounding treelines (Sever Group video shows buildings cleared, not the entire periphery).
[MEDIUM] Monitor for retaliatory RF naval activity in the Black Sea following the UK's reported plan to use "shadow fleet" oil funds for Ukraine (1251Z).
[LOW] Verify the status of the "Chaltyr" industrial zone in Rostov; assess damage to specific logistics or UAV production facilities.
