GOVERNANCE: SHMYHAL APPOINTED MINISTER OF ENERGY (1215Z, RBK-Ukraine/Sternenko, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada has confirmed Denys Shmyhal as First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Energy on the second attempt. This resolves the critical C2 leadership vacuum identified in the 24h daily report.
TACTICAL SECTOR: RF MAIN EFFORT TOWARD HRYSHYNE (1212Z, Tsaplienko/DShV, HIGH): UAF 7th Quick Reaction Corps (DShV) confirms the primary RF strike vector in the Pokrovsk sector is now directed at the settlement of Hryshyne, corroborated by DeepState mapping.
NEW CAPABILITY: RF DEPLOYS BM-35 STRIKE UAV (1205Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Russia has introduced the BM-35, a long-range loitering munition specifically designed for SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses). Reported combat use is unconfirmed but likely.
NORTHERN AXIS: RF CLAIMS CAPTURE OF KOMAROVKA (1211Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF "Sever" (North) Group claims to have seized Komarovka using small-unit tactics and continuous artillery support. (UNCONFIRMED).
TACTICAL INNOVATION: RF DEPLOYS "COURIER" UGV (1217Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian forces are reportedly using "Courier" ground robots (UGV) to assault/detonate UAF strongpoints on the Kupyansk axis.
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR: RF ADVANCES NEAR HULIAIPOLE (1224Z, Slivochnyi Kapriz, MEDIUM): Positional advances by RF forces are reported west of Huliaipole (Staroukrainka direction).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV ENERGY OUTLOOK (1213Z-1229Z, Svyrydenko/RBK-Ukr, MEDIUM): Deputy PM Svyrydenko states power outages in Kyiv may decrease starting Thursday, contingent on the absence of new mass missile/UAV strikes.
MARITIME: RF MOD CONFIRMS MATILDA DISTRESS CALL (1217Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): Russian MoD acknowledges a distress call from the tanker Matilda at 1015Z on 13 Jan, confirming the incident timing from earlier reports.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from a leadership crisis in Kyiv to a localized tactical intensification.
Battlefield Geometry: The RF focus in the Pokrovsk sector is narrowing toward Hryshyne, likely aiming to sever regional logistics. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, RF forces are seeking bridgeheads for long-range shelling of the city (1206Z).
Weather: Sustained freezing temperatures continue to stress the grid, but the formal appointment of an Energy Minister (Shmyhal) allows for centralized crisis management.
C2 Status:STABILIZED. The confirmation of Shmyhal ends the period of ministerial vacancy, though the death of MP Oleksandr Kabanov (1209Z) may impact legislative margins for future votes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Technical Adaptation: The deployment of the BM-35 UAV (1205Z) indicates a prioritized RF effort to degrade UAF air defense networks protecting critical infrastructure and Pokrovsk logistics.
Ground Tactics: The use of "Courier" UGVs in Kupyansk (1217Z) and small-unit infiltration in Komarovka (1211Z) suggests RF is attempting to reduce personnel losses in high-attrition "meat assaults" by substituting technology and specialized infantry tactics.
Intentions: RF is likely trying to capitalize on the current sub-zero temperatures by maintaining pressure on the energy grid while simultaneously fixing UAF reserves in Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk to prevent reinforcement of the Hryshyne/Pokrovsk axis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Defensive Posture: The 225th Separate Assault Regiment is actively fundraising for ISR "eyes" (1209Z), indicating a persistent gap in tactical drone availability at the regimental level.
Resource Constraints: Zaporizhzhia OVA is actively recruiting military drivers (1210Z), suggesting a localized shortage of logistics personnel for front-line delivery.
Logistics/Rear: Law enforcement successfully disrupted a major counterfeit stamp operation in Vinnytsia (5m UAH loss), mitigating a minor but notable economic sabotage risk (1200Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Propaganda Escalation: RF State Investigative Committee (Bastrykin) is doubling down on narratives linking the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack to Ukrainian special services (1205Z, 1229Z). This is likely a precursor to justifying "retaliatory" strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers.
Diplomatic Hybrid Ops: RF channels are amplifying Donald Trump’s comments on Greenland/NATO to sow discord within the Western alliance and distract from the Ukrainian theater (1211Z, 1215Z).
Internal Criticism: Video of maritime figure Leonid Yakovyshyn criticizing the post-Soviet political class is being circulated to degrade trust in current governance (1218Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify the assault on Hryshyne within the next 12 hours, utilizing "Courier" UGVs and artillery to probe UAF lines. Expect a continuation of the ballistic threat from the East (triggered 1217Z, cleared 1224Z) as RF tries to keep AD units mobile and vulnerable.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes a BM-35 UAV swarm to successfully neutralize a Patriot or IRIS-T battery near Kyiv, followed by a massed Kalibr/Kh-101 strike targeting the "unprepared" energy nodes identified by Shmyhal yesterday.
Strategic Timeline: The "improvement" in Kyiv's energy situation (slated for Thursday) provides a narrow window for RF to launch a disruptive strike before the grid becomes more resilient.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Verify the capture of Komarovka. If confirmed, assess if this opens a new flanking route toward the Sumy-Kharkiv interior.
[HIGH] Technical exploitation of the BM-35 UAV. Range, payload, and guidance systems must be identified to update AD electronic warfare profiles.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of MP Kabanov’s death on the parliamentary quorum. Does this jeopardize the confirmation of a new Defense Minister (Fedorov)?
[LOW] Investigate the reported $3B Iranian missile purchase (referenced in 24h report) for arrival at RF Caspian ports.
