OFFICIAL RF CLAIM: KOMAROVKA LIBERATION (1028Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially claimed the "liberation" of Komarovka in the Sumy region. This confirms earlier tactical reports of a breach in the northern border sector.
STRATEGIC PERSONNEL REVELATION: MOBILIZATION CRISIS (1022Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Fedorov, HIGH): Vice PM Mykhailo Fedorov reported to the Verkhovna Rada that 2 million Ukrainians are currently "wanted" for mobilization evasion and 200,000 are Absent Without Leave (SZCh). This is a critical transparency shift ahead of his expected confirmation as Defense Minister.
INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADE: IVANO-FRANKIVSK BLACKOUTS (1021Z, TASS/Mayor, MEDIUM): The energy crisis has reached Western Ukraine; the Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk announced preparations for 24/7 electricity shut-offs, indicating the national grid's inability to balance load during the freeze.
KUPYANSK CROSSING DESTRUCTION (1005Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces utilized FAB-500 aerial bombs to destroy a Ukrainian river crossing near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, likely aimed at isolating UAF bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
LARGE-SCALE UAV ENGAGEMENT (1024Z, TASS/MoD RF, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims to have intercepted 33 Ukrainian UAVs over the Sea of Azov, Crimea, and Krasnodar Krai between 09:00 and 13:00 MSK.
DIPLOMATIC PSYOPS: "TRUMP ROUTE" IN ARMENIA (1003Z, WarGonzo/Rybar, LOW): Russian channels are circulating claims of a US-Armenia agreement (TRIPP) involving PMCs on the Iranian border. This is likely a Russian information operation aimed at destabilizing Armenian-Iranian relations.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is expanding with the opening of a new tactical axis in Sumy, while the Ukrainian rear faces critical manpower and energy stability challenges.
Northern Axis: The fall of Komarovka (1028Z) establishes a persistent Russian foothold in Sumy Oblast, moving the conflict into a "new direction" where hostilities were previously limited.
Energy/Environment: The cold wave is forcing Western Ukrainian cities like Ivano-Frankivsk (1021Z) into total grid collapse scenarios.
Maritime: Visual confirmation of the Novorossiysk tanker strike (1001Z) validates UAF's continued capability to strike RF economic interests despite increased AD activity.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: RF is focusing on bridgehead isolation and tactical "fixing" operations. The use of FAB-500s against Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (1005Z) suggests an intent to collapse the UAF defensive line along the Oskil before the ground thaws.
Air Defense: RF has deployed Pantsir-S systems to the Sever Group AOR (1006Z) to counter the UAF's northern drone incursions.
Information Operations: RF state media is aggressively pivoting toward the "Tymoshenko Corruption" narrative (1016Z) and rumors of US-Russia backchannel negotiations (1001Z) to foster internal Ukrainian distrust.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Strategic Leadership: Mykhailo Fedorov is transitioning into the MoD role with a mandate for "deep audit" (1026Z). His focus on laser-guided artillery and domestic AD (1025Z) indicates a pivot toward high-tech attrition to compensate for personnel shortages.
Personnel Status: The admission of 200,000 SZCh (AWOL) cases (1022Z) represents a CRITICAL readiness concern. Fedorov has promised a "systemic solution" for the Recruitment Centers (TCC) to address these "problems accumulated over years."
Social Support: The Coordination Headquarters is engaging families of the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade (1007Z), likely to manage morale following recent high-intensity engagements.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Internal Subversion: The "Tymoshenko search" narrative (1002Z, 1016Z) is being used by pro-Russian sources to suggest a personal vendetta by the President's Office, aiming to trigger political fragmentation.
External Pressure: The claimed "Witkoff/Kushner" visit to Moscow (1001Z) is UNCONFIRMED and likely a narrative designed to make UAF forces feel abandoned by Western allies.
Rehabilitation Branding: Launch of the "Zmicneni" (Strengthened) campaign (1019Z) attempts to maintain social cohesion by highlighting veteran rehabilitation services.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will expand its presence in Komarovka to threaten the H-07 highway, while maintaining high-intensity FAB strikes on Kupyansk and Toretsk to force UAF into a retreat from exposed salients.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the "2 million wanted" personnel data to launch a targeted PSYOPS campaign calling for mass desertion, timed with the total blackout of Ivano-Frankivsk and other western hubs to spark national civil unrest.
Tactical Forecast: Anticipate another wave of UAF long-range UAV strikes on the Krasnodar/Novorossiysk axis within 24 hours to exploit AD gaps identified during today's 33-drone sortie.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Verify the validity of the "200k AWOL" figure. Is this cumulative since 2022 or a current active status?
[HIGH] Confirm the status of the Oskil River crossings near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. Are temporary pontoon assets available to maintain the bridgehead?
[MEDIUM] Monitor for Bloomberg or official US confirmation of the Witkoff/Kushner Moscow visit.
[MEDIUM] Identify the specific "laser-guided" systems Fedorov is referencing (1025Z)—are these indigenous "Kvitnyk" upgrades or new Western integrations?
