VIDEO CONFIRMATION: KOMAROVKA OCCUPATION (0944Z, TASS/MoD RF, HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Defense has released video footage from Komarovka (Sumy Oblast), providing visual confirmation of their presence in the settlement following earlier seizure claims.
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS: ZAPORIZHZHIA (0939Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Ukrainian authorities have ordered the mandatory evacuation of children and guardians from five settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating an expected escalation in kinetic intensity or an imminent RF offensive in this sector.
MARITIME STRIKE: NOVOROSSIYSK TANKER (0948Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Footage released showing a Ukrainian naval drone strike on a tanker near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Novorossiysk. Note: Sources report "major inconsistencies" in the visual evidence, suggesting possible BDA manipulation or recycled footage.
CROSS-BORDER KINETIC ACTIVITY (0937Z, ASTRA/Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Local authorities in Russia's Belgorod Oblast report civilian injuries following a Ukrainian drone strike, continuing the UAF campaign to disrupt RF rear logistics.
UAS THREAT: SUMY-POLTAVA AXIS (0937Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A Russian UAV (likely Shahed/Geran) was detected entering from the north of Sumy, trending south toward Poltava Oblast.
FSB COUNTER-SABOTAGE CLAIM (0946Z, Dva Mayora/FSB, LOW): The FSB claims to have prevented a "terrorist attack" against a defense industry employee in St. Petersburg. This likely serves as a domestic narrative to justify increased internal security measures.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "Buffer Zone" expansion strategy by RF forces in the north and a "Grid Attrition" campaign nationwide.
Battlefield Geometry: RF forces are actively attempting to consolidate a tactical "security zone" along the Sumy-Kharkiv border. The confirmed presence in Komarovka (0944Z) validates a 5-10km breach of the international border.
Weather/Environment: Persistent sub-zero temperatures (-15°C to -20°C) continue to maximize the impact of strikes on energy infrastructure.
Infrastructure Status: Official reports (0934Z) confirm the overnight strike wave focused on Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kherson, targeting critical heating and power nodes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: RF is executing a multi-domain pressure campaign. Tactically, they are leveraging "raid-and-hold" operations in Sumy to fix UAF reserves. Strategically, they are using the MoD's reported strikes on 145 target areas (0953Z) to maintain a state of permanent emergency across the Ukrainian rear.
Logistics/Sustainment: The ratification of the RU-BY agreement on protection from foreign persecution (0936Z) suggests deepening integration of internal security and logistical depth with Belarus, potentially securing the northern flank for further operations.
Discipline Issues: Reports of a Russian soldier escaping a collection point and committing armed robbery (0933Z) indicate localized breakdowns in discipline/morale within mobilized or convict-recruited units.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Posture: UAF remains in a defensive posture in the North and East. The 5th Separate Assault Brigade is actively using FPV drones to attrit RF infantry in unidentified sectors, maintaining a high tactical exchange ratio (0931Z).
Civilian Protection: The mandatory evacuation in Zaporizhzhia (0939Z) suggests UAF intelligence anticipates a significant RF push toward regional hubs or an increase in glide-bomb (KAB) usage against these settlements.
Regulatory Measures: In response to the economic strain of the war, the Cabinet of Ministers has moved to regulate pharmaceutical pricing (0943Z), aiming to maintain social stability amidst the energy crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Corruption Narrative (Main Effort): The NABU wiretaps involving Yulia Tymoshenko (0931Z, 0956Z) are being heavily amplified by RF state media (TASS) and "Z-channels" (Colonelcassad, Kotenok). The narrative objective is to portray the Ukrainian government as a "failed state" incapable of governance during a freeze.
Counter-Collaboration: The General Prosecutor's office is highlighting the arrest of collaborators in the education sector (0930Z), serving as a deterrent against internal subversion in occupied/recovered territories.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to leverage the Komarovka foothold to launch cross-border raids toward Sumy, aiming to disrupt the H-07 highway. Concurrently, a new wave of Shahed strikes will target the Poltava/Chernihiv transition zones to probe Air Defense gaps.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF capitalizes on the "Tymoshenko scandal" and the leaderless Energy Ministry to launch a psychological operation (PSYOPS) calling for mass protests in Kyiv over energy prices and pharmaceutical shortages, timed with a major kinetic strike on the capital's energy "islands."
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine the size and composition of the RF force currently in Komarovka. Is this a Reconnaissance-in-Force (RIF) or a permanent Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) presence?
[HIGH] Verify the status of the "five settlements" in Zaporizhzhia under evacuation. Are these adjacent to known RF mechanized concentrations?
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Poltava-bound UAV (0937Z). Confirm if the target is the Mirhorod airfield or energy sub-stations.
[MEDIUM] Track the Batkivshchyna party's response to the NABU leaks. Assess the risk of legislative paralysis extending into next week.
