COORDINATED BALLISTIC SURGE (1708Z–1721Z, UAF Air Force/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): A multi-vector ballistic missile wave was launched from the South and Northeast. Impacts/explosions confirmed in Dnipro (1714Z) and Zaporizhzhia (1715Z). High-speed targets tracked through Kharkiv toward Poltava (Opishnya/Kigichivka).
MARITIME ESCALATION (1716Z, TASS/Chevron, HIGH): US energy giant Chevron confirmed a chartered tanker was struck by drones. Kazakhstan (1700Z) also confirmed attacks on two tankers in the Black Sea, escalating the maritime economic warfare dimension.
INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE – KYIV (1700Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Kyiv’s ground electric transport has ceased operations, leading to massive public transit queues and total reliance on diesel buses. This confirms the critical degradation of the capital's power grid.
TACTICAL RF ADVANCE – KHARKIV (1706Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly achieved localized gains southwest of Vovchansk (Burluk direction), attempting to secure the banks of the Vovcha River.
LOGISTICS STRIKE – DNIPRO (1706Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): RF kinetic strike on rail infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, likely aimed at disrupting UAF movement toward the Pokrovsk/Donetsk front.
ADAPTATION – ANTI-UAV TECH (1720Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): UAF 57th Brigade revealed successful operational use of interceptor drones to down RF ISR assets, a critical development in neutralizing Russian aerial observation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kyiv):
Kyiv: Ground transport failure indicates the grid is unable to support non-essential loads. A UAV remains active in the NW (1707Z), transitioning toward Zhytomyr (Narodychi), suggesting a flanking route to avoid established AD corridors.
Sumy: UAF 80th Air Assault Brigade remains active with offensive drone operations, maintaining the buffer zone despite persistent RF pressure (1706Z).
2. Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Kharkiv (Vovchansk): RF advances southwest of Vovchansk indicate an attempt to expand the bridgehead and threaten UAF lateral communications along the Vovcha River.
Pokrovsk: Small-group RF infiltrations persist; UAF 67th Mechanized Brigade is utilizing UAVs to interdict these movements before they reach the city outskirts (1712Z).
Logistics: A "winter collection" drive by RF-linked volunteer groups (Workshop 77/Interbrigades) for the Konstantinivka direction (1717Z-1719Z) confirms that frontline RF units still suffer from gear and drone shortages.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):
Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia: The current ballistic wave is actively targeting regional C2 and rail hubs. The strike on railway infrastructure (1706Z) suggests a systematic effort to isolate the Southern front from reinforcements.
Vilniansk: New UAV threat detected from the NE (1722Z), likely performing BDA for the 1715Z ballistic strikes.
4. Strategic Rear / RF Territory:
Taganrog: RF sources confirm one civilian fatality from earlier UAF strikes (1701Z). UAF deep-strike capability remains a persistent threat to Rostov-region logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF has shifted to a synchronized multi-vector strike profile. By launching ballistics from both the South (Crimea/Azov) and NE (Belgorod/Kursk) simultaneously, they are attempting to oversaturate AD radar and fire control in Central Ukraine.
Logistics: The focus on Dnipro’s rail infrastructure indicates an operational-level intent to prevent UAF from shifting reserves between the Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk sectors.
Crowdfunding Indicators: Sustained RF reliance on civilian collections for "5th convoys" and drones (1700Z, 1719Z) suggests that despite high SAR signatures at GRAU bases, the "last mile" distribution of tactical tech remains broken.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technical Superiority: The disclosure of anti-UAV interceptor drones (57th Brigade) provides a cost-effective counter to RF Orlan/Zala ISR platforms, potentially blinded RF artillery in localized sectors.
Defensive Interdiction: 46th Airmobile Brigade and 67th Mechanized Brigade are successfully using rocket artillery and drones to break up RF assault groups in the Donetsk sector (1702Z, 1712Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Maritime Narrative: RF-aligned channels (Rybar, 1727Z) are pivoting toward "Trump vs. Iran" rhetoric to distract from the confirmed Chevron tanker attack, likely to mitigate international backlash against maritime disruptions.
Internal Stability: Pro-RF sources are amplifying Kyiv’s transport chaos (1700Z) to catalyze "failed state" narratives amid the energy crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued ballistic and high-speed cruise missile strikes targeting the Dnipro-Poltava rail corridor to paralyze UAF tactical maneuvering.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF maritime assets in the Black Sea attempt to seize a commercial vessel in "retaliation" for the Chevron drone strike, using the confusion of the drone attacks as a pretext.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA on Dnipro railway infrastructure strike (1706Z). Determine if the main line to Pokrovsk is severed.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of RF gains southwest of Vovchansk. Has the river line been breached?
[MEDIUM] Monitor for Iranian missile deliveries; RF "acceleration" mentions (1700Z) suggest a potential arrival of Fath-360 or similar systems.
