NATIONAL POWER CRISIS – UKRAINE (1651Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Ukrenergo confirms scheduled blackouts will be implemented across ALL regions of Ukraine tomorrow, 14 January, following catastrophic strikes on the energy sector.
LOGISTICS STRIKE – KHARKIV (1637Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): Russian forces conducted a nighttime strike on a Nova Poshta terminal in Korotych, targeting a critical civilian-military dual-use logistics hub.
AERIAL THREAT – NORTHERN AXIS (1637Z–1657Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Russian UAVs detected transitioning from Chernihiv Oblast toward Vyshhorod (Kyiv), Nizhyn, and Chernihiv outskirts.
TACTICAL STRIKE – SUMY (1636Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF specialists used "Geran-2" UAVs to strike a storage area and a reported UAF drone command post in Mironovka.
OPERATIONAL STRIKE – ZAPORIZHZHIA (1630Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Aviation elements of the RF 11th Air Force/AD conducted strikes on Barvinovka (NW of Huliaypole), expanding the targeting depth in the southern sector.
ECONOMIC WARFARE – MARITIME (1648Z, Bloomberg/RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian oil exports are "stuck" at sea due to the loss of the Indian market, complicating RF revenue streams.
INTERNAL SECURITY – UKRAINE (1654Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The Abbot of "Holosiivska Pustyn" has fled Ukraine following an SBU investigation into an FSB-linked "underground school" at the site.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kyiv):
Air Domain: A persistent UAV threat is developing over Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. Drones are currently tracking toward Vyshhorod (1637Z), potentially targeting the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant or remaining regional substations.
Sumy: RF continues to utilize long-range loitering munitions (Geran-2) against tactical C2 and storage nodes (Mironovka) to degrade UAF drone capabilities near the border.
2. Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Donetsk):
Kharkiv Logistics: The strike on Korotych (1637Z) indicates a systematic RF campaign to sever the logistics backbone of the Kharkiv defense. Targeting "Nova Poshta" infrastructure suggests an intent to disrupt small-unit resupply and volunteer-driven technical logistics.
Pokrovsk (Baseline): Mechanized pressure remains the primary threat (ref: 1500Z report), though new kinetic data is limited in this 30-minute window.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Huliaypole Sector: RF aviation has intensified strikes on Barvinovka (1630Z). This likely aims to disrupt UAF tactical reserves positioned to support the line north of Huliaypole.
Civilian Recovery: Successful restoration of power to 90% of consumers in Vilniansk (1634Z) demonstrates UAF/NGO resilience despite continued bombardment.
4. Strategic Rear / RF Territory:
Taganrog BDA: Regional authorities confirm one female fatality from the morning UAF strike (1631Z, 1654Z), confirming UAF penetration of RF airspace in the Rostov region.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a "high-low" strike profile: "high" strategic strikes on Kyiv’s TPP-5 (reconfirmed at 1642Z) and "low" tactical UAV strikes on logistics/C2 (Korotych/Mironovka).
Logistics Status: RF sustainment remains reliant on "volunteer" efforts (Kotenok appeal, 1630Z), suggesting that despite heavy GRAU throughput, frontline "assault troops" (Shturmoviki) face persistent shortages of basic equipment.
Adaptation: Increased use of aviation in the Zaporizhzhia sector (1630Z) suggests the RF is seeking to exploit clearer skies or gaps in AD coverage following the focus on infrastructure defense.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Internal Security: Ukrainian counter-intelligence successfully disrupted an FSB-linked cell operating under religious cover (1654Z). This reduces the risk of local surveillance/sabotage in the Kyiv metropolitan area.
Grid Management: Ukrenergo is proactively managing the coming total-grid deficit by announcing nationwide schedules (1651Z) to prevent an uncontrolled blackout.
Information environment / disinformation
Diversionary Narratives: RF-aligned channels (Colonelcassad, 1642Z) are heavily amplifying US national debt data to project Western economic instability, likely to distract from Russian oil export failures in India (1648Z).
Psychological Ops: Video appeals regarding RF losses (1627Z baseline) are being countered by pro-RF "military correspondents" with donation drives (1630Z) to normalize the attrition and redirect public frustration toward "support" rather than "criticism."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued UAV incursions over Kyiv and Chernihiv to exhaust AD interceptors before a potential early-morning missile wave targeting the national grid on 14 Jan.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF aviation in Zaporizhzhia shifts from Barvinovka to striking the Zaporizhzhia city energy hub, coinciding with the national blackout to trigger a regional humanitarian crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm current flight paths of UAVs over Vyshhorod (1637Z). Are they loitering for BDA on TPP-5 or moving toward the Hydroelectric dam?
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the Korotych logistics strike on 155th OMBr resupply lines in the Kharkiv sector.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Indian port data to verify Bloomberg’s report (1648Z) on "stuck" Russian oil; determine if these vessels are being rerouted to other secondary markets.
