STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE – KYIV (1614Z, Tsaplienko/Kucherenko, HIGH): 5 missiles confirmed hitting TPP-5 (CHP-5) in Kyiv. Damage is catastrophic; officials state restarting the heat supply (heating agent) will be "very difficult."
MARITIME ESCALATION – BLACK SEA (1616Z, TASS/Kazakh MinEnergy, HIGH): Two tankers (under Liberian and Maltese flags) were attacked by UAVs near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk. Vessels were intended for Kazakh oil; no cargo was aboard during the strike.
NORTHERN FRONT – SUMY BORDER (1602Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Confirmed localized Russian offensive operations along the border section of Sumy Oblast. Maps indicate Russian advances into border-adjacent territory.
TACTICAL SUCCESS – UAF DRONE OPS (1625Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF "Baba Yaga" night-bomber drones successfully neutralized a fortified position ("Izbushka") belonging to the RF 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
DIPLOMATIC – FINLAND-UKRAINE (1605Z, Zelenskiy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy coordinated with Finnish President Stubb regarding Euro-Atlantic security and air defense/recovery potential following recent strikes.
INTERNAL RF FRICTION (1627Z, Mobilizatsiya Novosti, MEDIUM): An RF officer has released a video appeal alleging "criminal negligence" and systemic medical neglect within Russian units, leading to "unjustified losses."
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy Border: Russian forces have initiated localized ground assaults (1602Z). This represents a broadening of the front beyond the Kharkiv/Lyman axes, likely intended to fix UAF reserves and prevent their deployment to the critical Pokrovsk sector.
Kharkiv: Continued pressure from loitering munitions. UAF continues to leverage specialized "Shahed-cutter" drone units to mitigate the aerial threat (1611Z).
2. Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Sector Status: While new kinetic reports in this window are sparse, the earlier daily report of a battalion-sized mechanized assault on the Shakhtarskyi district remains the primary operational threat.
RF Attrition: UAF drone units are successfully targeting RF rear-area shelters and hardware, specifically attriting the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment (1625Z).
3. Strategic Rear / Kyiv:
Energy Grid: The situation has moved from "critical degradation" to "partial collapse." The hit on TPP-5 (1614Z) is a decisive blow to Kyiv’s heating infrastructure during -20°C temperatures.
RF Intent: Russian state-aligned sources (1622Z) explicitly state the goal is the "destruction of the unified energy system of Ukraine," indicating that nuclear power plant (NPP) switching substations may be the next priority targets.
4. Maritime Domain (Black Sea):
Novorossiysk Sector: The UAV strike on neutral-flagged tankers (1616Z) near the CPC terminal indicates a Russian "false flag" or a high-risk retaliatory move following the Marinera seizure. By striking tankers intended for Kazakh oil, Russia may be attempting to pressure international energy markets while maintaining plausible deniability or blaming UAF long-range drones.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The enemy is executing a dual-track escalation: 1) A "freeze-out" campaign targeting Kyiv’s primary heating plants (TPP-5) and 2) A maritime escalation in the Black Sea to disrupt non-Russian energy exports.
Tactical Adaptation: Localized pushes in Sumy suggest the RF is testing for gaps in border defenses where UAF manning may have been thinned to support the East.
Logistics/Sustainability: RF units continue to rely on volunteer/public fundraising (1601Z, NgP Razvedka) for basic military equipment, suggesting that despite the high-level GRAU ammo surge, tactical-level procurement remains fractured.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Defense: Focus is on emergency repair and stabilization of the Kyiv energy hub. High-level diplomatic engagement with Finland (1605Z) is likely centered on acquiring specialized energy equipment and AD interceptors.
Tactical ISR/Strike: Continued success of the "Baba Yaga" platforms (1625Z) against RF motorized rifle units provides a high-value, low-cost counter-attrition mechanism.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Diversion: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily saturating the environment with reports on Greenland's sovereignty (1628Z) and unrest in Iran (1612Z, UNCONFIRMED) to dilute the international focus on the catastrophic humanitarian impact of the TPP-5 strike.
Demoralization: Pro-Russian mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, 1622Z) are using the partial blackout to project an aura of "inevitability" regarding the total collapse of the Ukrainian state.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Further missile/drone strikes on energy substations in Central Ukraine to prevent the redistribution of power from NPPs to the now-crippled Kyiv grid.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): Russian ground forces in the Sumy sector transition from "localized operations" to a multi-battalion cross-border raid to seize high ground or a key logistics node, exploiting the current C2 focus on the Kyiv energy crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess the operational status of remaining turbines at Kyiv TPP-5. Can any capacity be salvaged, or is the facility a total loss for the winter season?
[HIGH] Identify the origin of the drones used in the Novorossiysk tanker attacks (1616Z). If UAF, assess BDA; if RF/False Flag, analyze the trajectory for evidence of launch from occupied Crimea or RF territory.
[MEDIUM] Determine the depth of the Russian advance in the Sumy border sector (1602Z). Are these reconnaissance-in-force elements or the vanguard of a new offensive axis?
