AIR THREAT ESCALATION (1405Z-1426Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Significant increase in aerial activity. Russian forces launched KAB (guided bombs) at Kharkiv from the east, followed by ballistic missile threats from the NE targeting Chuhuiv and Bilyi Kolodyaz.
RF COMMAND INSTABILITY (1404Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Further confirmation of the removal of Lt. Gen. Sukhrab Akhmedov. New reports identify him as Deputy Commander of the Navy for Coastal and Ground Troops, suggesting his dismissal impacts not just the 20th Army but broader RF naval infantry coordination.
UAV SATURATION (1410Z-1423Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active UAV incursions detected moving West from Chernihiv and across multiple vectors in Dnipropetrovsk (Slavgorod, Pavlohrad, Synelnykove) and Zaporizhzhia (Vilniansk).
MARITIME DISINFORMATION (1401Z, Kotsnews, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim UAF strikes on Kazakhstan-flagged tankers in the Black Sea. This contradicts confirmed strikes on Greek-flagged tankers and likely constitutes a "false flag" narrative or attempt to strain UAF diplomatic relations with Central Asian partners.
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (1427Z, Politico via Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Germany and France have reached an impasse regarding the use of a €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine; France reportedly opposes the procurement of US-made weaponry with these funds.
DOMESTIC DISRUPTION (1413Z-1415Z, Filolog v Zassade, MEDIUM): High-level internal Russian discussions suggest a growing "maintenance crisis" or "purges" (metaphorically referred to as "capitol repairs in the restroom") affecting the Russian military hierarchy beyond Akhmedov.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
Kharkiv/Chuhuiv: Under heavy pressure from standoff munitions. KAB launches (1405Z) followed by high-speed ballistic targets (1426Z) indicate a concentrated effort to degrade logistics hubs supporting the Eastern front.
Chernihiv: UAVs detected moving West (1410Z), likely attempting to bypass AD corridors to reach Western Ukraine or northern logistics nodes.
Kyiv: Remains in a critical infrastructure state (-20°C, near total blackout). No new kinetic strikes reported in the last hour, but the ongoing UAV activity suggests pathfinding for a night wave.
2. Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donetsk):
Kupyansk: Russian "Rubicon" units claim to have destroyed UAF Humvees and temporary deployment points (1413Z, TASS - LOW confidence/Propaganda).
Donetsk: Continued Russian shelling resulting in at least two civilian casualties (1420Z, ASTRA).
3. Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia):
Dnipropetrovsk: High-density UAV activity (1416Z-1423Z) targeting Slavgorod, Pavlohrad, and Synelnykove. This suggests a reconnaissance-in-force or preparation for strikes on rail/supply junctions.
Zaporizhzhia: UAVs detected moving near Vilniansk from the NE (1423Z).
4. Maritime (Black Sea):
Information Contestation: Following UAF success against Russian oil exports in Novorossiysk, RF sources are attempting to frame UAF as a threat to neutral (Kazakh) shipping (1401Z). This is likely a response to the UK's authorization to seize "Shadow Fleet" vessels.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The shift from UAV harassment to KAB and ballistic missile launches against Kharkiv suggests Russia is attempting to exploit the weather-induced strain on UAF mobility.
Command & Control: The dismissal of Akhmedov and hints of broader "systemic flaws" (1414Z) by Russian mil-bloggers suggest an internal struggle within the MOD. This may lead to unpredictable tactical decisions as new commanders attempt to prove "results" quickly.
Logistics: Internal RF debt relief (2.2B rubles) for military families in the Moscow region (1422Z) indicates a continued focus on maintaining domestic social stability amidst high mobilization requirements.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Actively engaging targets across the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk sectors. Early warning systems are providing high-fidelity tracking of ballistic and UAV threats.
Internal Security: Successful anti-corruption operation in Lviv (1400Z, OGP) demonstrates the Ministry of Justice and Prosecutor General's continued focus on rear-area integrity despite frontline pressure.
International Volunteers: Canadian volunteers (Khartia Corps) remain active in the Kupyansk sector, maintaining defensive lines (1408Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Kazakh Tanker" Narrative: Marked as DISINFORMATION. Attempt to pivot the maritime narrative from Russia's "Shadow Fleet" vulnerabilities to UAF "piracy."
"Havana Syndrome" / Pulse Weapons: Russian-aligned channels are disseminating reports (citing CNN) that the US used Russian-designed pulse weapons (1422Z). This is likely an attempt to muddy the waters regarding RF's own use of advanced EW (K-15) and to create friction between the US and Ukraine/allies.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued ballistic and KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Chuhuiv to capitalize on the "Fast Target" alerts triggered this afternoon. A secondary wave of Shahed-type UAVs will likely target Dnipropetrovsk energy substations tonight.
MDCOA: Coordinated strike on Kyiv's remaining heating/power infrastructure during the 0000Z-0400Z window to maximize humanitarian impact during -20°C temperatures.
UAF Response: Potential for asymmetric maritime or long-range UAV strikes against RF rear-area command posts to further exploit the current RF C2 instability following Akhmedov’s removal.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the Kazakhstan-flagged tankers mentioned by Kotsnews (1401Z) to deconflict with international partners.
[HIGH] Identify specific launch sites for KABs hitting Kharkiv; determine if they are utilizing new airfields or closer-to-border "pop-up" sites.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the EU loan disagreement (DE/FR) on immediate ammunition and air defense procurement timelines.
[LOW] Monitor the "Havana Syndrome" narrative for signs of a new RF SIGINT/EW deployment that could threaten UAF tactical communications.
