STRATEGIC PROCUREMENT (1332Z, Bloomberg via ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Reports indicate Russia has purchased approximately $3 billion worth of missiles from Iran. This suggests a significant replenishment of long-range strike capabilities for 2026.
UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP TRANSITION (1334Z, 1357Z, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada’s National Security Committee has unanimously supported Mykhailo Fedorov’s appointment as Minister of Defense. Simultaneously, Lt. Gen. Vasyl Malyuk confirmed his departure from the role of Head of the SBU, though he remains within the service.
KYIV ENERGY CRISIS (1333Z, TASS/Strana, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a "near total blackout" in Kyiv. This follows a major sewage failure at the Ministry of Energy (1317Z) and current -20°C temperatures, elevating the infrastructure crisis to a critical level.
MARITIME INTERDICTION CONFIRMATION (1334Z, 1335Z, Военкор Котенок/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Satellite imagery and maritime reports confirm drone strikes on three Greek-flagged tankers (including Delta Harmony) near the CPC terminal in Novorossiysk.
RF COMMAND TURMOIL (1338Z, 1356Z, Два майора/Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): General-Lieutenant Sukhrab Akhmedov has been removed as Commander of the 20th Army. Internal reports allege unprofessional conduct regarding the personal property of fallen subordinates ("Varyag").
AIR THREAT ESCALATION (1334Z, 1345Z-1348Z, Colonelcassad/UA Air Force, HIGH): Active air raid alerts in Sevastopol (RF-occupied) and detected UAV incursions in Dnipropetrovsk (Slavgorod), Sumy (from NE), and Chernihiv (Ripky, moving South).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis: UAV activity is increasing. Specifically, loitering munitions are transiting via Ripky (Chernihiv) moving South toward the capital or central hubs (1348Z).
Eastern Axis (Krasny Lyman): Satellite imagery confirms localized military activity in the Krasny Lyman - Prishib sector (1342Z), suggesting potential RF tactical repositioning or offensive preparation.
Southern Axis:
Dnipropetrovsk: UAVs detected in the vicinity of Slavgorod (1345Z).
Crimea: Sevastopol is under active air raid alert (1334Z), indicating UAF follow-on strikes following the Novorossiysk success.
Maritime (Black Sea/Caspian Pipeline): The CPC terminal area remains high-risk. Confirmation of the strike on Greek tankers highlights a successful UAF operation against RF oil export infrastructure (1335Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Command & Control (C2): The dismissal of Akhmedov (20th Army) indicates friction within the RF high command, possibly linked to poor performance or internal ethical scandals. This may lead to temporary tactical hesitation in the 20th Army’s AOR.
Strategic Capabilities: The $3B Iranian missile deal indicates that RF is pivoting toward sustained, high-volume ballistic/cruise missile saturation to offset domestic production limits.
Adaptation: RF continues to utilize harassment drones in the north to map AD while likely preparing for a major strike to exploit the "Total Blackout" in Kyiv.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Leadership Realignment: The appointment of Fedorov (architect of the "Army of Drones") as MoD suggests a further shift toward high-tech, decentralized warfare and drone-centric operational planning.
Strategic Reach: Continued pressure on Sevastopol (1334Z) and the confirmed success in Novorossiysk demonstrate UAF's ability to maintain the initiative in the maritime domain despite RF defensive measures.
Rear Maintenance: Kharkiv administration is actively clearing roads amidst severe weather to ensure logistical lines remain open (1350Z).
Information environment / disinformation
EU/UK Obstruction Narrative: RF MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova is actively framing EU and UK elites as the primary obstacles to a "settlement," attempting to drive a wedge between Western populations and their governments (1356Z).
Internal RF Censorship: The fining of comedian Alexander Gudkov for a parody clip (1350Z) and the sentencing of ex-senator Arashukov (1342Z) indicate a continued focus on internal discipline and the suppression of cultural dissent.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely initiate a wave of missile/UAV strikes tonight specifically targeting Kyiv’s remaining "islands" of power, aiming to turn the current "total blackout" into a long-term humanitarian disaster.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a rapid tactical push in the Krasny Lyman sector to exploit the weather-induced logistical strain on UAF forces.
UAF Response: Expect further maritime drone or long-range missile attempts against Black Sea Fleet assets in Sevastopol while the air raid alert remains active.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the specific types of Iranian missiles included in the $3B deal (Ballistic vs. Loitering) to update AD interception protocols.
[HIGH] Assess the immediate impact of the "Total Blackout" in Kyiv on military command centers and secure communication nodes.
[HIGH] Identify the replacement for Gen. Akhmedov (20th Army) to assess the likely change in tactical posture for that sector.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for confirmation of the "Havana Syndrome" device acquisition (1358Z) to determine if this impacts SIGINT/EW safety protocols for personnel in the field.
