SBU LEADERSHIP DISMISSAL (1210Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada has dismissed Vasyl Maliuk from his position as Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) with 235 votes in favor. This follows the dismissal of the Defense Minister and Deputy PM (1212Z, Оперативний ЗСУ).
KYIV ENERGY EMERGENCY (1200Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): High-rise buildings in Kyiv are being directly connected to high-power generators to bypass failed grid segments and provide emergency heat/power (1203Z, РБК-Україна).
BELGOROD INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE (1221Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): Governor Gladkov has reported a critical failure in the Belgorod (RF) energy system and advised residents to evacuate to areas with functional light and heat. A regional evacuation plan is reportedly being drafted (1224Z, Alex Parker).
CASPIAN MARITIME ATTACK (1224Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): A tanker chartered by a Kazakh company was reportedly attacked by a drone near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facility.
BALLISTIC THREAT (1221Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): High-risk alert for ballistic weaponry launches from the east. This follows detected high-speed targets moving toward Zaporizhzhia (1203Z).
GUIDED BOMB (KAB) STRIKES (1201Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RF aviation has launched KABs targeting the Sumy region, coinciding with UAV incursions from the north (1244Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy: Under active bombardment. KAB launches (1201Z) and UAVs approaching from the north (1244Z) indicate a concerted effort to suppress northern border defenses.
Kharkiv (Lyman direction): RF "Zapad-Akhmat" and 82nd Motorized Rifle units claim to have repelled a UAF sortie (1218Z, Kadyrov_95). UNCONFIRMED due to high propaganda value.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Dnipro):
Troitske (Dnipropetrovsk Obl): RF claims a successful Iskander-M strike on a UAF concentration of personnel and armor (1211Z, Colonelcassad). UNCONFIRMED; BDA required.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Zaporizhzhia City: High-speed aerial targets detected from the south (1203Z). Reconnaissance UAVs are loitering south of the city, likely performing BDA or spotting for follow-on strikes (1212Z).
Frontline: Video evidence suggests active combat on the immediate approaches to Zaporizhzhia (1205Z, Kotsnews), indicating RF pressure to capitalize on recent aerial suppression.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Infrastructure Parity: The RF appears to be suffering from mirror-image infrastructure failures in Belgorod as seen in Kyiv. This may lead to an increase in "spite strikes" against Ukrainian energy nodes to justify domestic failures.
Tactical Missile Usage: The use of Iskander-M systems against rear-area targets in Dnipropetrovsk (Troitske) suggests RF is attempting to interdict reserves before they can reach the stabilizing Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Asymmetric Maritime Threat: The drone attack in the Caspian Sea near Kazakhstan-linked assets indicates a potential expansion of the conflict's geography to target regional energy export hubs, possibly as retaliation for Western maritime sanctions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Security Realignment: The dismissal of Vasyl Maliuk (SBU) completes a significant reshuffle of the security/defense cabinet. This likely signals a strategic shift in internal security or counter-intelligence priorities under a new, yet-to-be-named leadership.
Civil Resilience: Implementation of large-scale generator connectivity for residential Kyiv indicates a transition to decentralized energy support to mitigate the -20°C freeze.
Legal Counter-Intelligence: Continued prosecution of pro-Russian political elements (OPZZh MP extension) remains a priority despite leadership changes (1213Z, Prosecutor General).
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Distraction: RF state media (TASS) is pivoting toward domestic social issues (pharmacy laws, maternity ward checks) to dilute the impact of the Belgorod energy crisis and the Novokuznetsk infant mortality scandal.
Foreign Outreach Propaganda: Zelensky’s reported address to the Iranian people in Farsi (1206Z) is being framed by pro-RF channels as a "desperate" attempt to incite rebellion, likely to preempt further Iranian-RF military cooperation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain ballistic and KAB pressure on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia to prevent UAF from shifting assets to cover energy repair sites.
MDCOA: A catastrophic failure of the Belgorod energy grid may trigger a panicked RF "retaliation" strike against the Kyiv Reservoir or remaining TPPs to force a symmetric humanitarian crisis.
Kyiv Status: Expect continued administrative friction as the SBU and MoD transition to interim leadership.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Identify the interim or permanent successor for the Head of the SBU (Maliuk).
[HIGH] Verify BDA for the Iskander strike in Troitske (Dnipropetrovsk). Determine if the targeted unit was a primary reserve for the Southern Axis.
[HIGH] Investigate the origin and type of drone used in the Caspian Sea attack. Determine if this was a false-flag or a genuine expansion of kinetic operations.
[MEDIUM] Assess the operational status of the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment in the Kharkiv/Lyman sector to verify Kadyrov’s claims of suppressed UAF sorties.
