CABINET SHAKEUP (1134Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada has dismissed Denys Shmyhal from the position of Minister of Defense and Mykhailo Fedorov from his roles as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation (1151Z, Оперативний ЗСУ).
RF COMMAND PURGE (1138Z, Два майора, HIGH): Vice-Admiral Sukhrab Akhmedov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Navy (Coastal/Ground Forces), has been dismissed following disastrous "armored column" assaults and tactical failures at the Dobropillya salient and Vuhledar (1142Z, Alex Parker Returns).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT: KHARKIV (1151Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple high-speed missile launches detected from Belgorod (RF) targeting Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv. This follows reported UAV incursions toward Slobozhanske (1140Z).
KYIV LOGISTICS STABILIZATION (1158Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): The Cabinet of Ministers has taken direct control of supermarket supply chains in Kyiv to prevent food shortages following the Right Bank transport suspension.
UAF TECHNOLOGICAL SUCCESS (1136Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (PNK Group) utilized "ReDrone" specialized FPVs to eliminate 6 RF personnel and 1 Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) in the Kharkiv sector.
RF REAR INSTABILITY (1135Z, ASTRA, HIGH): A major public health crisis is unfolding in Novokuznetsk (RF) following the mass death of nine infants at Maternity Hospital No. 1; investigation into criminal negligence is underway.
UNCONFIRMED MARITIME SEIZURE (1142Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, LOW): Reports suggest the US Coast Guard seized the tanker Bella 1, allegedly carrying 1.5 tons of gold and UAV electronic components.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv: Under active missile and UAV threat. RF is utilizing Belgorod-based assets for rapid-response strikes. UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is actively interdicting RF infiltrations using modified drone tech.
Sumy: UAVs detected transiting toward Putivl from the southeast (1142Z), suggesting a corridor mapping or loitering mission.
Eastern Axis (Dobropillya/Donetsk):
The dismissal of Gen. Akhmedov confirms significant RF losses in the "Dobropolsky protrusion." RF sources admit to columns being decimated by minefields and cross-sectional drone strikes (1142Z, Alex Parker).
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): RF MoD is attempting to frame UAF successes here as "fake videos" using coerced POW testimony (1136Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
RF "Phobia" drone unit (392nd Motorized Rifle Regiment) successfully targeted a UAF Self-Propelled Gun (SPG) near Pavlovka (1141Z, Colonelcassad).
93rd Mechanized Brigade is effectively utilizing unmanned systems for CASEVAC operations to reduce personnel exposure (1129Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Failure & Friction: The removal of Vice-Admiral Akhmedov highlights deep dissatisfaction within the RF MoD regarding "meat-grinder" tactics. Akhmedov was reportedly resistant to cooperating with volunteer/charity funds (1140Z, Два майора), suggesting internal friction between formal command and the "mil-blogger" support ecosystem.
Saturation Strikes: RF is maintaining high-tempo missile pressure on Kharkiv to coincide with the ongoing grid instability in Kyiv, likely aiming to overwhelm AD coordination across two major hubs.
Humanitarian Distraction: RF state media is pivoting to narratives of Western corruption (Canadian aid fraud, 1159Z) and "US acoustic weapons" (1130Z) to overshadow the Novokuznetsk health crisis and internal military purges.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Command Transition: The dismissal of Fedorov and Shmyhal (MoD role) represents a massive shift in the defense and digital transformation leadership. This may lead to a temporary "bureaucratic pause" in procurement but suggests a move toward a new operational management phase.
Innovation in CASEVAC/Rescue: Both the 93rd and 31st Mechanized Brigades have demonstrated high-level proficiency in unconventional rescue—utilizing unmanned systems and rapid trench extraction (1153Z, Butusov)—crucial for maintaining morale in -20°C conditions.
Active Counter-Drone Ops: The use of "ReDrone" programs to target RF UGVs indicates UAF is successfully adapting to the emerging "unmanned vs. unmanned" battlefield layer.
Information environment / disinformation
"Acoustic Weapon" Narrative (LOW CONFIDENCE): Pro-RF channels are circulating videos of "US acoustic cannons" on helicopters (1130Z). This is a classic "Havana Syndrome" pivot to frame US involvement as experimental and non-conventional.
Coerced Testimony: RF MoD's release of a POW "confession" regarding faked videos in Pokrovsk is likely a pre-emptive attempt to discredit future visual evidence of RF armored losses in that sector.
Internal RF Morale: The Novokuznetsk infant death reports (ASTRA) and the Akhmedov dismissal provide a counter-narrative to the TASS reports of "70,000 applicants" wanting to study in Russia, highlighting domestic decay.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued missile saturation of Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv to force UAF AD to expend interceptors.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a localized breakout in the Dobropillya sector to "prove" the new command's effectiveness following Akhmedov's dismissal, despite high risk and sub-zero temperatures.
Kyiv Status: Government control of supermarkets suggests fears of civil unrest or panic-buying. Expect heightened National Guard presence in urban centers.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Clarification of the "Minister of Defense" dismissal. Denys Shmyhal is the Prime Minister; confirmation is needed if this refers to a broader cabinet reshuffle or a specific misidentification of the MoD head.
[HIGH] Assessment of the "ReDrone" tech specs. Determine the range and payload capacity of these FPVs that are now successfully targeting UGVs.
[MEDIUM] BDA of the missile strikes in Staryi Saltiv. Determine if the target was logistics/bridges or energy infrastructure.
[LOW] Verification of the Bella 1 tanker seizure. If components for drones were found, identify the point of origin and the specific electronic modules.
