CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEGRADATION: KYIV (1123Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): "Kyivpastrans" has suspended all electric public transport (trams/trolleybuses) on the Right Bank due to grid instability; replaced by diesel buses.
GOVERNMENTAL IMPACT (1104Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): Heating failure has extended to the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament); deputies are operating in cold-weather gear, signaling a breakdown in administrative building climate control.
IN-FLIGHT MISSILE/UAV THREAT (1114Z-1123Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): High-speed missile transit detected over Sumy (Boromlya) heading toward Poltava (Zinkiv). Simultaneous UAV incursions from Dnipropetrovsk toward Kharkiv (Sakhnovshchyna/Orylka).
RF TACTICAL LOGISTICS ADAPTATION (1100Z, Воин DV, MEDIUM): RF "Vostok" group has deployed "Mangas" heavy hexacopters for "last-mile" delivery of ammo and medicine in the South Dnipropetrovsk sector, likely bypassing frozen/contested ground GLOCs.
OLEKSANDRIVSKYI SECTOR ENGAGEMENT (1124Z, Presidential Brigade ZSU, HIGH): RF small-unit "probing" tactics confirmed against the 3rd Mechanized Battalion. UAF is utilizing FPV drones to disrupt these infiltrations.
KUPYANSK-LYMAN SEAM (1120Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): Tactical engagements reported in the Borova–Novokruhlyakivka corridor; RF claiming localized successes.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Poltava): Active missile corridor. A cruise missile/ballistic asset is currently transiting Sumy toward Poltava (1123Z). UAVs continue to enter Sumy from the north.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Oleksandrivskyi):
Borova: Intense fighting localized between Borova and Novokruhlyakivka.
Oleksandrivskyi: RF is attempting "cavalry-style" small group rushes. UAF Presidential Brigade is holding positions primarily through drone-corrected indirect fire and FPV strikes.
RF is prioritizing aerial sustainment (Mangas UGVs/UAVs) to maintain assault tempo despite -20°C temperatures.
Kinetic strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in two civilian casualties (1124Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Logistics Innovation: The use of "Mangas" heavy-lift drones (1100Z) suggests RF is successfully adapting to the "Frozen Rear" conditions by moving logistics to the sub-tactical aerial domain, reducing the impact of snow-blocked roads.
Precision FPV Strikes: The "Prince Vandal Novgorodskiy" unit demonstrated successful long-range FPV interdiction against a high-value UAF soft-skin vehicle (1103Z), possibly using fiber-optic or advanced jam-resistant links.
Hybrid Warfare: RF-linked channels are amplifying reports of US "acoustic weapons" (Havana Syndrome) and EU political instability (Volodin's resignation calls) to distract from the humanitarian impact of their energy strikes (1121Z, 1128Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: UAF drone operators (e.g., "Minion" in the Butusov report, 1108Z) continue to demonstrate high tactical proficiency, utilizing environmental cues (animals/tracks) to locate RF concealed positions.
Rear-Area Security: Khmelnytskyi regional authorities successfully interdicted a major illicit trade ring (12m UAH), indicating that internal security services remain functional despite the energy crisis (1100Z).
Legal/Moral: Successful prosecution and life sentencing of a Russian war criminal (1121Z) serves as a key counter-narrative to RF "justice" propaganda.
Information environment / disinformation
"Grid Panic" Amplification: RF sources (Operational Z, 1059Z) are aggressively repurposing DTEK official interviews to emphasize the "collapse" of the Ukrainian grid.
Disinfo Pivot: Heavy circulation of a "US attack on Venezuela" and "acoustic weapons" narrative (Alex Parker, 1121Z; TASS, 1122Z) is likely an attempt to frame the US as a global destabilizer in the eyes of the Global South.
Internal RF Strain: TASS reporting on infant mortality in Novokuznetsk (1115Z) confirms that despite the "justice" focus, domestic Russian social issues are leaking into the state-controlled media space.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued missile and UAV saturation of Poltava and Kharkiv hubs to exploit the current "leaker" gaps in the AD umbrella.
MDCOA: A coordinated mechanized thrust in the Borova sector, synchronized with the current missile strikes, to collapse the Kupyansk-Lyman seam while UAF attention is diverted to the Kyiv heating/transport crisis.
Tactical Alert: Units in the South Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors should expect increased RF "Mangas" drone activity; these platforms are likely also being used for reconnaissance/dropping munitions, not just logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical analysis of "Prince Vandal Novgorodskiy" drones. Determine if the "best video of a chase" implies a fiber-optic tether (immune to EW).
[HIGH] Status of the missile transiting toward Zinkiv (Poltava). BDA required for potential energy/logistics targets in that sector.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of RF "localized success" in Borova. Assess if this constitutes a breakthrough or a standard "grey zone" fluctuation.
[LOW] Monitor the impact of the transport suspension in Kyiv on military personnel movement and mobilization throughput.
