UAF DEEP STRIKES: CRIMEA/RF REAR (1027Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF claims to have intercepted 15 UAF UAVs between 0800Z and 1300Z over Crimea, the Sea of Azov, and Volgograd/Kursk regions. Indicates sustained UAF pressure on RF strategic depth despite severe weather.
INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES: MARIUPOL/MAKIIVKA (1018Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF 1st Center for Unmanned Systems and "Kairos" Battalion released footage confirming strikes against energy and military infrastructure in occupied Mariupol and Makiivka.
MARITIME SEIZURE: INTERNATIONAL (1013Z, Kotenok, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Denmark assisted the US in the seizure of the Russian tanker "Marinera" (Bella 1). This follows the UK’s earlier authorization of "Shadow Fleet" seizures, marking a significant escalation in maritime economic warfare.
TACTICAL STRIKE: DNIPROPETROVSK (1002Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed KAB (guided bomb) launch targeting Petropavlivka. This suggests RF is targeting logistics/rail nodes connecting Dnipro to the eastern front.
AIR THREAT: ZAPORIZHZHIA/SUMY (1001Z-1005Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): UAV incursions detected moving toward Zaporizhzhia (from NE) and Sumy (east of Yampil, heading S/SW).
ECONOMIC VOLATILITY: NATIONAL (1012Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) has seen sharp devaluation, with the Euro approaching 51 UAH.
EU AID DISPUTE: INTERNATIONAL (1020Z, Poddubny, LOW): Reports of friction between Paris and Berlin regarding the allocation of billions in Ukraine aid. UNCONFIRMED; likely RF-amplified narrative to signal Western fatigue.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy): RF UAVs are active east of Yampil (1005Z), suggesting a reconnaissance or harassment vector targeting regional GLOCs.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Mariupol): UAF has successfully retaliated for energy strikes by targeting the Mariupol and Makiivka grids (1018Z). RF remains focused on internal security, evidenced by the detention of a 17-year-old for alleged GUR espionage in Mariupol (1021Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The Petropavlivka KAB strike (1002Z) indicates a widening of the RF target set to include secondary logistics nodes. UAV activity toward Zaporizhzhia city (1001Z) remains a persistent threat to city infrastructure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Logistics: Visual evidence (1023Z) shows RF infantry utilizing non-military, portable civilian tents for shelter in snow. ASSESSMENT: Indicates continued shortages in military-grade winter sustainment gear, likely impacting combat effectiveness during the forecasted -25°C freeze.
Aerial Operations: RF is maintaining a high tempo of KAB and UAV strikes to overstretch UAF Air Defense (AD) assets. The focus is shifting toward logistics nodes (Petropavlivka) and energy targets in the rear.
Internal Security: Heightened state of paranoia in RF rear areas, evidenced by raids at Ural Federal University (1011Z) and domestic espionage arrests in occupied territories.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Response: UAF is successfully utilizing its Unmanned Systems (OC SBS) to strike deep into occupied territory (Mariupol/Makiivka), specifically targeting the energy sector to create reciprocal pressure on RF occupation authorities.
Strategic Resilience: General Syrskyi’s retrospective (1024Z) frames current operations as a continuation of the "great trial" of 2025, emphasizing the successful denial of RF's strategic goals (Odessa/Right Bank) despite ongoing tactical pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels (Dva Mayora) are amplifying inflammatory social content (1028Z) to incite domestic tension.
Western Unity: RF sources are heavily leaning into the "France vs. Germany" aid dispute (1020Z) to undermine Ukrainian morale and signal a breakdown in EU support.
Economic Anxiety: The UAH devaluation is being framed by some outlets to trigger currency flight/panic (1012Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Weather Factor: As temperatures drop further toward -20°C tonight, expect RF to intensify strikes on heating and energy hubs in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
Kinetic Activity: High probability of continued UAF drone strikes on RF-controlled Crimea and the Sea of Azov to disrupt the "Shadow Fleet" and associated logistics.
Logistics: Petropavlivka will likely remain a target for tactical aviation (KABs) to disrupt UAF reinforcements moving toward the Pokrovsk/Vremivka sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] BDA of UAF strikes in Mariupol and Makiivka. Determine if the strike on the Makiivka grid has affected RF troop concentrations or just civilian infrastructure.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the Danish/US tanker seizure details. Monitor for RF Black Sea Fleet movements in potential retaliation against commercial shipping.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT/ELINT on the UAV vector toward Zaporizhzhia (1001Z) to identify if these are reconnaissance-only or strike-capable Shahed-variant leakers.
