STRATEGIC ENERGY STRIKE: NATIONAL (0949Z, RF MoD, HIGH / 0954Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): RF MoD confirmed a "massive strike" using high-precision surface-based weapons and UAVs targeting energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy reports power outages in Kyiv and seven oblasts (Kyivska, Odeska, Kharkivska, Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Chernihivska, Zaporizka).
FRONTAL PRESSURE: SVIATOHIRSK (0943Z, Mash na Donbasse, LOW): Reports indicate the start of urban combat in eastern Sviatohirsk. UNCONFIRMED; likely an RF attempt to expand the northern Donetsk salient.
UNIT RECOGNITION: HULIAIPOLE (0930Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy officially recognized the 1st and 225th Assault Regiments for their actions in the Huliaipole sector. This contradicts earlier RF claims of the town's total "liberation," suggesting UAF maintains a significant presence and active defense.
BATTLEFIELD STRIKES: VREMIVKA (0941Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF 11th Air and AD Army conducted bombing sorties against UAF positions in Zaliznychne.
REAR AREA IMPACT: KYIV (0931Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Major retail chains (Silpo, NOVUS) have begun temporary closures in Kyiv and the surrounding region due to energy instability, signaling a degradation of civilian logistics and food security.
STRATEGIC DISRUPTION: TAGANROG, RF (0956Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Local authorities confirmed the introduction of a State of Emergency (SoE) for two enterprises and several residential/educational zones following the UAF UAV strike.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a period of extreme multi-domain pressure. While ground lines of communication (GLOCs) remain contested in the east and south, the RF has successfully initiated a systemic "Blackout" campaign synchronized with -20°C temperatures.
Weather: Extreme cold persists. The impact of the energy strikes is amplified by these temperatures, causing retail closures and threatening the integrity of water and heating systems in 7+ regions.
Key Terrain: The Huliaipole-Zaliznychne axis is the current focal point of RF tactical aviation. In the north, Sviatohirsk has emerged as a new point of friction.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is executing a coordinated "retaliatory" doctrine. The massive strike (0949Z) is framed as a response to UAF strikes on RF civilian/industrial targets (e.g., Taganrog). The primary intent is to force a collapse of Ukrainian domestic resilience while pinning UAF forces with localized ground assaults.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is employing diverse UAV vectors:
Sumy: Approaching from the North-East (0933Z).
Kherson/Dnipro Border: Moving West (0938Z).
Zaporizhzhia: Targeting Orikhiv and Vilniansk (0947Z).
Logistics/Rear: The state of emergency in Taganrog (0956Z) confirms that UAF strikes achieved significant kinetic impact on RF industrial capacity.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF maintains "active defense" in the Huliaipole sector, with the 1st and 225th Assault Regiments reinforced by presidential commendation (0930Z).
Successes: The Taganrog strike has successfully forced RF to declare a State of Emergency in a key industrial hub, likely disrupting drone production/repair cycles.
Constraints: High-intensity KAB launches toward Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk (0956Z) continue to stress tactical air defenses. The loss of a 67-year-old civilian from an earlier Kryvyi Rih strike (0935Z) highlights the long-term attrition of the civilian population.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Russian channels are using "State of Treason" cases in Mariupol (detention of a teenager, 0931Z) to reinforce control in occupied territories. Simultaneously, they are amplifying domestic tragedies (Novokuznetsk infant deaths, 0930Z) to potentially pivot domestic frustration away from the war's costs.
UAF Narrative: UAF is maintaining a defiant posture at the international level; Amb. Melnyk’s aggressive rhetoric at the UNSC (0955Z) signals no intent to negotiate under the current energy blackmail.
Satire/Hybrid: RF sources (Medvedev) are using political satire regarding US leadership (0947Z) to attempt to influence Western political discourse and distract from the Taganrog impact.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current intensity of UAV and KAB strikes over the next 12 hours to prevent UAF from stabilizing the power grid. Ground activity will likely focus on the eastern outskirts of Sviatohirsk to test UAF's northern flank.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A sustained blackout in Kyiv leading to a total failure of the central heating system, necessitating a massive diversion of military logistics and engineering assets to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the capital.
Timeline: 0-6 hours: Expect continued UAV saturation over Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. 6-12 hours: Potential BDA from RF on the morning's missile strikes, followed by a second wave of "Shahed" type UAVs to targets identified as still functional.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kyiv/Oblast: High risk of logistical gridlock if major retailers remain closed and power outages persist past nightfall.
Sviatohirsk: Risk of tactical penetration. If eastern Sviatohirsk falls, RF could threaten the Lyman GLOC.
Zaporizhzhia: Intensified KAB and UAV activity targeting Orikhiv suggests a softening of the line for a possible mechanized push.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the "Blackout" extent. Determine if any major TPP/CHPP (Thermal Power Plants) have sustained permanent turbine or transformer hall damage versus switchyard damage.
[HIGH] GEOINT/SIGINT verification of combat in Sviatohirsk. Determine if RF "Vostok" or "Center" groups are committing reserves to this new vector.
[MEDIUM] BDA of the Taganrog enterprises. Identify specific production lines affected (e.g., A-50 repair or UAV assembly).
