DEEP STRIKE: TAGANROG, RF (0915Z, SBU/VMS, HIGH): Joint SBU and Ukrainian Navy operation successfully struck a drone production plant in Taganrog. Local RF authorities have declared a State of Emergency (SoE) for two enterprises and surrounding residential areas, confirming kinetic impact (0926Z, Operativnyi ZSU).
STRATEGIC COORDINATION: KYIV (0917Z, GSZSU, HIGH): Commander-in-Chief Gen. Syrskyi held high-level consultations with US Gen. Christopher Donahue (CG USAREUR-AF). Focus: Modernizing C2 and optimizing defensive posture for the 2026 winter campaign.
FRONTAL PRESSURE: HULIAIPOLE (0901Z, RF MoD, LOW / 0902Z, GSZSU, MEDIUM): RF forces claim the "liberation" of Huliaipole. UNCONFIRMED. UAF General Staff reports ongoing "clashes near Huliaipole," suggesting a contested environment rather than a confirmed collapse.
CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE: KHARKIV (0924Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Overnight strike on a "Nova Poshta" logistics terminal in Novyi Korotych using 2 missiles and 4 UAVs. This continues the RF pattern of targeting logistics and postal hubs to disrupt dual-use supply chains.
ENERGY PERSONNEL RESHUFFLE: KYIV (0927Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): PM Shmyhal reportedly planning a total replacement of Deputy Energy Ministers. This suggests a systemic response to the current energy crisis and possible dissatisfaction with infrastructure hardening performance.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains highly active across 11 distinct sectors. The RF has shifted from a singular focus on Pokrovsk to a broad-front attrition strategy, with significant combat spikes in the Lyman and Huliaipole sectors.
Weather: Persistent extreme cold (-20°C) continues to dictate operational tempo. RF "massive strikes" (0909Z, TASS) are being framed as retaliation for UAF strikes, but geographically they target the same energy nodes identified in the 0900Z sitrep to maximize thermal weaponization.
Key Terrain: The Huliaipole axis is currently the most critical point of reported change. If RF claims of capture are even partially true, it threatens the right flank of the Velyka Novosilka salient.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Strategic Air: RF MoD has officially acknowledged a "massive strike" using high-precision weapons against the energy sector and "VPC" (Military-Industrial Complex) targets (0912Z).
Ground Forces: The "Vostok" Group's activity in Zaporizhzhia (0901Z) indicates a pivot toward the southern front to exploit potential gaps created by the focus on Pokrovsk.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is using UAVs south of Zaporizhzhia city (0911Z) to map the periphery of urban AD before launching KAB sorties (0926Z).
Logistics/Rear: The state of emergency in Taganrog indicates a successful UAF disruption of the RF drone supply chain, likely impacting Shahed-type or Lancet production/assembly.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF maintains a high-intensity "active defense." GSZSU reports 24-hour clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Kherson.
Successes: The Taganrog strike demonstrates a sophisticated multi-domain capability (SBU + Navy) to penetrate RF air defenses in the Rostov region.
Internal Governance: Increased activity by the Prosecutor General against mobilization evasion (0900Z) indicates a tightening of domestic military administration to ensure replacement flow for the winter campaign.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Framing energy strikes as "retaliation for terrorist attacks" to justify infrastructure destruction to domestic and international audiences (0909Z, TASS).
Western Tensions: RF channels are highlighting reported France/Germany rifts over funding (0911Z, Kotsnews) to undermine European solidarity.
US Stance: The US condemnation of energy strikes as an "insult" to peace efforts (0903Z) indicates a hardening of the US diplomatic position despite RF claims of seeking negotiations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground assaults in the Huliaipole-Zaporizhzhia sector to capitalize on the "fog of war" surrounding their capture claims. Simultaneously, expect a second wave of UAVs tonight to conduct BDA on the energy targets hit overnight.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed breakthrough at Huliaipole leads to an RF mechanized push toward the N-15 highway, threatening to cut off the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove logistics group from southern reinforcement.
Timeline: Next 6 hours: High-intensity KAB strikes expected in Zaporizhzhia (0926Z). Potential for UAF to release footage of Huliaipole to counter RF disinformation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Huliaipole: High risk of tactical encirclement if UAF cannot stabilize the western outskirts.
Taganrog/Rostov: Potential for "retaliatory" RF missile strikes on Odesa or Mykolaiv in response to the drone factory hit.
Kyiv: Energy Ministry reshuffle may cause temporary administrative friction during a critical infrastructure crisis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of Huliaipole status via GEOINT or ground-truth from 102nd TDF or 128th Assault Brigade.
[HIGH] Assessment of BDA at the Taganrog drone factory; determine if production lines or storage warehouses were the primary impact points.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT monitoring of RF "Vostok" group C2 to determine if the Huliaipole "liberation" report was an operational success or a premature report for MoD consumption.
