UAF DEEP STRIKE: ROSTOV OBLAST (0810Z-0814Z, GS ZSU/RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian missiles successfully struck a drone production facility in Rostov Oblast. This represents a strategic shift toward targeting the source of the "Shahed/Gerbera" swarms.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: ODESA (0828Z, RBK-UA/DTEK, HIGH): Massive strikes have caused "significant damage" to two DTEK energy facilities in Odesa. This expands the "freeze-out" campaign beyond Kyiv and Kharkiv.
SBU LEADERSHIP CRISIS (0803Z-0807Z, RBK-UA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): The Rada Defense Committee has supported the dismissal of SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk. Concurrently, Martial Law and mobilization have been extended for 90 days (0809Z).
CONTINUED AIR ASSAULT: SUMY (0829Z, UAF Air Force, MEDIUM): New UAV incursions detected entering Sumy from the north, indicating a multi-wave "pulse" tactic to prevent AD recovery.
COMMUNICATIONS BLACKOUT: SOUTHERN DONETSK (0823Z, Mash on Donbas, MEDIUM): Significant communication disruptions reported in southern occupied Donetsk (DNR), potentially masking RF troop movements or the result of Ukrainian EW/sabotage.
FINANCIAL PRESSURE: IMF DEBT (0827Z, TASS/NBU, MEDIUM): RF sources report Ukraine has not yet settled a $179.6M IMF debt due this morning, likely used as an information operation to signal economic instability.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict remains in a state of "distributed attrition." The RF is utilizing a 10:1 UAV-to-Missile ratio to saturate Ukrainian defensive envelopes. The focus has pivoted to the Odesa Hub, likely to disrupt maritime logistics and thermal power for the southern region.
Weather/Environment: The extreme cold (-15°C to -20°C) remains the primary operational factor. Damage to Odesa’s energy grid during this thermal window is a deliberate attempt to force a humanitarian "migration wave" or local capitulation.
Force Disposition: RF "Tsentr" Group is increasing pressure in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, utilizing massed artillery to clear the way for assault detachments (0800Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is maintaining a high tempo of air operations. Su-25 "Grach" pairs are active in the Vostok (Eastern) sector, specifically targeting Ukrainian rotation routes at low altitudes (0803Z).
Tactical Adaptations:
Electronic Warfare (EW): RF is successfully disrupting communications in Southern Donetsk, which may precede a localized offensive toward the Vuhledar-Kurakhove seam.
Aviation: Use of Su-25s for "rotation disruption" indicates a focus on preventing fresh Ukrainian reserves from reaching the freezing front lines.
Logistics: The strike on the Rostov drone plant (0810Z) is a direct hit to the RF’s primary attrition tool. If production is significantly hampered, RF may be forced to rely more heavily on increasingly scarce missile stocks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Counter-Strike Capability: UAF has demonstrated the ability to penetrate deep into Rostov with missiles (likely modified Neptune or Storm Shadow/SCALP equivalents) while simultaneously suppressing targets in occupied territories (0810Z).
Personnel & Readiness: Internal political shifts (SBU leadership) and the 90-day extension of mobilization suggest a transition to a long-term "total war" footing, even as RF propaganda attempts to highlight "low morale" by showcasing captured cooks in assault roles (0800Z).
Tactical Success: UAF FPV units continue to maintain high lethality in urban sectors, with visual confirmation of successful strikes on RF infantry in entrenched positions (0812Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Focus is on "Ukrainian instability" (IMF debt, SBU dismissal, and forced mobilization). SVR is pushing a bizarre "Antichrist/British Intelligence" narrative in the Baltics (0816Z) to distract from battlefield losses.
US/Iran Distraction: RF channels are amplifying US warnings for citizens to leave Iran (0802Z), attempting to frame the Ukraine conflict as a secondary theater to an "imminent" Middle East war.
Maritime Blockade: The confirmation of the strike on the Greek-flagged "Delta Harmony" near Novorossiysk serves as a warning to international shipping engaged in the RF oil trade.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue "pulse" UAV strikes (like the current Sumy incursion) to keep AD systems active and depleted until the next major strategic missile wave can be launched against Odesa and Kyiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the communications blackout in Southern Donetsk to launch a mechanized breakthrough toward the Huliaipole-Orikhiv axis, capitalizing on the "Tsentr" group's current artillery momentum.
Timeline: 13 JAN 1200Z - 1800Z: Expected BDA from Odesa will likely trigger a new wave of rolling blackouts.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Infrastructure: Critical vulnerability in Odesa. Expect rapid deployment of mobile heating units.
Tactical: High intensity in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk; RF will likely attempt to capitalize on Su-25 air support to seize UAF forward positions before nightfall.
Deep Strike: Potential RF "retaliatory" strike on Ukrainian industrial sites in the West (Lviv/Khmelnytskyi) following the Rostov drone plant hit.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess the operational status of the Rostov drone plant; determine if the production line for "Shahed" type UAVs was neutralized or merely damaged.
[HIGH] Investigate the nature of the "communications disruption" in Southern DNR—identify if this is RF EW activity or a prelude to a significant ground offensive.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the continuity of SBU operations following Maliuk's dismissal to ensure counter-sabotage efforts remain effective during the energy crisis.
