MASS AIR ATTACK: NATIONAL (0734Z-0750Z, UAF Air Force/ASTRA, HIGH): Overnight, RF launched a massive combined strike utilizing 18-25 missiles (Iskander-M/K, S-300) and 293 UAVs (Shahed, Gerbera). UAF reports 7 missiles and 247 UAVs intercepted/suppressed.
ENERGY CRISIS: KYIV/KHARKIV (0755Z-0756Z, RBK-UA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Energy infrastructure in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv) damaged; power outages in Kyiv projected to last until end of day (13 Jan) per DTEK data.
MARITIME STRIKE: NOVOROSSIYSK (0738Z-0747Z, Kotenok/Operativnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Corroborated reports confirm a drone strike on the Greek-flagged tanker "Delta Harmony" near Novorossiysk. This follows earlier unconfirmed reports, now verified by multiple visual and state sources.
TACTICAL TECH: RIVERINE USVs (0757Z, Two Majors, MEDIUM): RF 18th Combined Arms Army has deployed a new "riverine" Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) in the Dnieper Delta (Kherson direction) for littoral operations.
COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE: MARIUPOL (0729Z-0750Z, RVvoenkor/Kotenok, MEDIUM): FSB detained a 17-year-old in Mariupol for allegedly collecting SIGINT/HUMINT on RF troop dispositions for Ukrainian GUR.
BORDER REGION CRISIS: BELGOROD (0733Z-0744Z, Two Majors, MEDIUM): Belgorod Governor Gladkov is discussing potential evacuations due to the "consequences" of strikes on energy infrastructure, indicating parity in grid instability.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a period of "Strategic Grid Attrition." The RF is saturating Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) with high-volume, low-cost UAV swarms (293 units) to mask ballistic strikes against energy nodes.
Weather/Environment: Persistent temperatures of -15°C to -20°C (0739Z) are being weaponized. The "freeze-out" strategy aims to achieve civil-administrative collapse by disabling heating during the thermal minimum.
Force Disposition: UAF assets in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole) are reportedly shifting to a drone-centric "active defense" due to heavy RF assault group pressure (0739Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is preparing for a follow-on massed strike. Strategic aviation (Tu-95/160) is currently being redistributed to staging airfields (0757Z). This suggests the overnight strike was a "shaping operation" to deplete AD interceptor stocks.
Tactical Adaptations:
Littoral/Riverine: Deployment of USVs in the Dnieper Delta (0757Z) indicates an intent to disrupt Ukrainian cross-river logistics or small-boat operations.
Ground Robotics: Use of UGVs for remote mining (0732Z) continues despite UAF counter-drone success.
Internal Security: RF is intensifying crackdown on "internal threats" in occupied territories (Mariupol) and managing domestic fallout from the Kuzbass health crisis (infant deaths) to prevent civil unrest (0745Z-0757Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Performance: High interception rate for UAVs (84%) but lower for ballistic missiles (28-38%) (0740Z). The "suppression" (Electronic Warfare) of UAVs is becoming as critical as kinetic intercepts.
Zaporizhzhia Defense (Huliaipole): 225th Separate Assault Regiment (OShP) remains in control of the city but characterizes the situation as "heavy fighting" with a total reliance on drones to compensate for RF infantry mass (0739Z).
Counter-Maritime: UAF continues to demonstrate "long-reach" capabilities against Russian oil logistics in the Black Sea, successfully targeting third-party hulls (Delta Harmony) to enforce an economic blockade (0745Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Russian channels (Poddubny, Parker) are framing the energy strikes as "retaliatory" and mocking Western military warnings to project an image of technical superiority (0734Z, 0752Z).
International/Hybrid: Significant focus on Iran (US citizen withdrawal) is being utilized by pro-RF sources to distract from the scale of the Ukrainian winter campaign (0735Z).
Diplomatic Pressure: Ukraine’s UN Representative (Melnyk) is framing the strikes as "deliberate freezing of civilians" to accelerate the 20th EU sanction package expected by Feb 24 (0731Z, 0739Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will execute a second "sledgehammer" strike within the next 24-48 hours once strategic aviation is repositioned. Focus will remain on Kyiv and Dnipro to force a municipal state of emergency.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF "River USV" and airborne assault in the Kherson/Dnieper sector to collapse the Ukrainian bridgeheads while AD is distracted by the missile campaign.
Timeline: 13 JAN 1800Z – Potential launch of a secondary UAV swarm to identify newly repositioned AD batteries.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Grid Impact: Expect rolling blackouts to expand in Kyiv as the -15°C load stresses the remaining damaged infrastructure.
Maritime: High risk of "tit-for-tat" Russian strikes on commercial shipping near the Danube or Odesa in retaliation for the Novorossiysk incident.
Tactical: Increased RF assault activity in Huliaipole; UAF will likely require urgent battery/UAV resupply.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Identify new staging airfields for RF strategic aviation (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) to provide early warning of the next missile wave.
[HIGH] Capture technical specifications or SIGINT from the "River USV" (Kherson sector) to develop EW countermeasures.
[MEDIUM] Assess BDA of the Bohodukhiv energy node (0755Z) to determine impact on regional Kharkiv military logistics.
