CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV TRANSPORT (0703Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Kyiv high-speed tram and specific trolleybus routes have ceased operations due to a lack of voltage in the grid following overnight emergency shutdowns.
AIR DEFENSE: DNIPROPETROVSK (0723Z, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, HIGH): 28 enemy UAVs were successfully intercepted and destroyed over the Dnipropetrovsk region between the evening of Jan 12 and the morning of Jan 13.
UNCONFIRMED MARITIME STRIKE: NOVOROSSIYSK (0716Z, Fighterbomber, LOW): Reports indicate a possible drone attack on the Greek tanker "Delta Harmony" in the Black Sea near Novorossiysk. If confirmed, this marks a significant escalation in maritime targeting.
SECTOR ENGAGEMENT: KONSTANTINOVKA (0705Z-0726Z, MoD Russia/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Heavy kinetic activity reported. UAF 28th Brigade neutralized an RF "tank-shed" (turtle tank) and an MT-LB via a "drone storm," while RF MoD claims Giatsint-B artillery strikes in the same direction.
INTERNAL RF CRISIS: AVIATION SHORTAGE (0705Z, ASTRA/Izvestia, MEDIUM): Significant deficiency reported in Russian state aviation search and rescue (SAR) helicopter availability, likely due to parts shortages or diversion of frames to the front.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The operational focus has shifted to maintaining urban viability in the rear. The shutdown of Kyiv’s electric transport (0703Z) indicates that the "energy-freeze" strategy is achieving localized paralysis of civilian movement.
Weather/Environment: The -20°C temperature remains the primary environmental force multiplier for RF strikes. Grid instability is now affecting secondary critical systems (transport), increasing the difficulty of emergency response.
AOR Expansion: Successful UAF intercepts in Dnipropetrovsk (0723Z) and the reported strike near Novorossiysk suggest the air/maritime domain of conflict is expanding south and east beyond the immediate line of contact.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities/Intentions: RF continues to utilize a mix of tactical artillery (Konstantinovka) and massed UAV swarms (28 downed in Dnipro) to saturate UAF defenses. The use of explosive-laden ground drones (0727Z) indicates an adaptation to high-attrition infantry environments.
Logistics & Sustainment: Evidence of strain in the RF rear is emerging. The confirmed shortage of SAR helicopters (0705Z) suggests that the RF's civilian and paramilitary aviation sectors are suffering from the cumulative impact of sanctions and military prioritization.
Naval Retaliation: The reported attack on the "Delta Harmony" (0716Z) may be a direct Russian response to the UK’s recent authorization to seize "Shadow Fleet" vessels (see Daily Report 12 Jan).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Prowess: The 28th Brigade’s "drone storm" near Konstantinovka (0726Z) demonstrates high proficiency in coordinated UAV-led counter-attacks against heavy RF armor and "tank-shed" modifications.
Resilience: Nova Poshta has initiated a compensation program for the Kharkiv terminal strike (0716Z), showing civilian logistical organizations are prepared for kinetic disruptions.
Air Defense: High effectiveness (100% or near-100% intercept rates) in the Dnipropetrovsk sector (0723Z) suggests successful repositioning of AD assets.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
National Unity: Simultaneous commemorative posts across all major Ukrainian military and civilian channels at 09:00 (0659Z-0710Z) reinforce national morale and institutional cohesion.
RF Propaganda: RF channels are actively promoting the "Oreshnik" missile system's alleged invulnerability to NATO's Patriot systems (0707Z, TASS) to counter the domestic impact of the Novokuznetsk health crisis (0709Z).
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-RF channels are circulating satirical or fake posts regarding US interest in Greenland (0714Z) and "indirect sanctions" on Iran (0659Z) to distract from battlefield attrition and domestic failures.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the "blackout corridor" focus, likely targeting the Dnipropetrovsk grid next, given the high volume of UAV activity detected there overnight.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF initiates a broader campaign against international commercial shipping in the Black Sea to enforce a de facto blockade, using "deniable" drone strikes to retaliate against Western maritime sanctions.
Timeline: Next 6-12 hours will see a peak in thermal load on the grid as the freeze continues; expect a secondary wave of strikes targeting electrical substations that power transit and water pumping.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Urban: Increased disruption to municipal services in Kyiv and Dnipro.
Tactical: High probability of RF mechanized push in the Konstantinovka/Kupiansk sectors as RF attempts to exploit the impact of recent artillery prep.
Maritime: Elevated risk to commercial hulls in the vicinity of Novorossiysk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Corroborate "Delta Harmony" strike: Secure satellite imagery or AIS data for the Novorossiysk roadstead to confirm the nature of the explosion.
[HIGH] Technical specs on RF ground drones: Determine if the UGV destroyed by 108th TDF was remote-controlled via Starlink or traditional RF (0727Z).
[MEDIUM] BDA on Taganrog: Assess the extent of the "consequences" mentioned by the Mayor of Taganrog (0721Z) regarding the aircraft component facility.
