ACTIVE CRUISE MISSILE STRIKE: KYIV OBLAST (0525Z-0526Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): At least three cruise missiles are currently inbound to Kyiv Oblast from the Sumy/Poltava vector. This follows a persistent saturation wave of ~30 Shahed-type UAVs across Northern Ukraine.
RF REGIONAL OFFENSIVE: ZAPORIZHZHIA/ORIKHIV (0518Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Pro-RF sources report an activation of the Orikhiv sector, claiming Zaporizhzhia is the primary RF operational focus for January. This correlates with reported intensified aerial bombing in the Vremivka area.
TAGANROG STRIKE CONFIRMATION (0526Z, TASS/Rostov Governor, HIGH): RF authorities confirm damage to an "industrial object," residential buildings, and gas infrastructure in Taganrog following UAF UAV strikes. No casualties reported.
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT: VREMIVKA SALIENT (0510Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Video evidence confirms RF 11th Air Force strikes on UAF positions in Zaliznychne.
UAV SATURATION: NORTHERN SECTOR (0510Z, RBK-Ukraina, HIGH): Approximately 30 UAVs remain active over Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv Oblasts, specifically targeting Vyshhorod, Brovary, and Makariv.
RF PERSONNEL ATTRITION (0500Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF reports +950 RF casualties over the preceding 24-hour period.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a high-intensity "strategic rear" phase. RF is executing a coordinated multi-axis air assault (UAV + Cruise Missile) targeting the Northern/Central corridor, while simultaneously increasing pressure on the Southern front (Zaporizhzhia).
Weather: Severe cold (-20°C) persists. This remains the primary environmental factor, as current RF missile trajectories suggest a deliberate attempt to collapse the already strained heating infrastructure in the Kyiv metropolitan area.
RF Rear: Successful UAF penetration of Rostov Oblast (Taganrog) has caused confirmed damage to gas and industrial infrastructure, likely disrupting local military-industrial logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Strategic Air Campaign: RF has shifted from simple UAV saturation to a "complex strike" profile. Use of ~30 drones to map/drain AD followed by cruise missiles (0525Z) indicates a sophisticated attempt to penetrate the Kyiv AD umbrella.
Zaporizhzhia Activation: Increased RF activity in the Orikhiv and Vremivka sectors (0510Z, 0518Z) suggests a secondary effort to fix UAF forces in the south and prevent the redistribution of units to Northern/Eastern defensive lines.
Tactical Adaptation: RF continues to utilize "Molniya-2" UAVs (0502Z) for tactical strikes in Zaporizhzhia, indicating a reliance on low-cost, high-volume loitering munitions to offset precision artillery shortages.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Defense is currently engaged in high-intensity kinetic operations over Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava. The diversion of resources to protect the capital's thermal infrastructure is a critical operational constraint.
Zaporizhzhia Defense: UAF forces in the Zaporizhzhia/Zaliznychne area are under significant aerial pressure from the RF 11th Air Force. One civilian casualty confirmed in the Zaporizhzhia district (0510Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is framing the Zaporizhzhia sector as their primary "success" vector for early 2026 to mask high attrition rates (+950 daily KIA/WIA).
International Diversion: Reports of escalating tensions in Iran (US State Dept evacuation orders, Trump sanctions rhetoric) are being amplified in the information space (0519Z, 0525Z). This may be leveraged by RF to suggest a shift in Western attention away from the current missile offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the current cruise missile wave targeting thermal power plants (TPPs) and electrical substations in the Kyiv/Brovary area to maximize the humanitarian impact of the -20°C freeze.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary wave of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) launched immediately after the cruise missile wave to hit first responders and repair crews, aiming for a total collapse of the Kyiv energy grid.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Extreme Kinetic Activity: High probability of explosions in Kyiv and surrounding suburbs as AD engages cruise missiles.
Infrastructure Risk: Critical threat to gas and heating networks in Central Ukraine.
Southern Front: Expect continued RF tactical aviation strikes in the Vremivka/Orikhiv sectors as they attempt to capitalize on the air-raid-induced distraction.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA of Kyiv Strikes: Immediate assessment of impacts on heating/energy nodes following the 0525Z cruise missile wave.
[HIGH] Taganrog Industrial Identification: Identify the specific "industrial object" hit in Taganrog (0526Z) to determine the impact on RF aircraft or missile production.
[MEDIUM] Molniya-2 Technical Specs: Collect data on the effectiveness of Molniya-2 UAVs against UAF fortified positions in Zaporizhzhia to update EW countermeasures.
