NEW KINETIC CONTACT: SVYATOGORSK (0446Z, TASS, LOW): Pro-RF sources report the commencement of combat operations in the eastern outskirts of Svyatogorsk. This indicates a potential RF attempt to reactivate the Lyman-Svyatogorsk axis. UNCONFIRMED.
UAF DEEP STRIKE EXPANSION: YELETS (0435Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Confirmed UAV strike in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, resulting in at least one casualty. This extends the UAF strike radius further north into the RF strategic interior.
PERSISTENT PRESSURE: TAGANROG (0459Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Follow-on UAV attacks reported against Taganrog, Rostov Oblast. This suggests a multi-wave operation targeting the "Atlant Aero" plant or surrounding military-industrial infrastructure.
KHARKIV CASUALTY INCREASE (0441Z-0445Z, Kharkiv OVA, HIGH): Confirmed fatalities from the strike on the Kharkiv suburban logistics terminal have risen to 4 KIA and 6 WIA.
RF REAR SECURITY OPS (0439Z, TASS, MEDIUM): FSB reports the detention of 25 individuals in occupied Donetsk for "drug trafficking." This likely serves as a cover for counter-insurgency/partisan filtration operations.
REGIONAL CIVIL DEFENSE: POLAND (0431Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): RF sources are circulating images of Polish civil defense brochures. Likely an information operation aimed at framing NATO as "preparing for war" to justify domestic RF mobilization.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The front has potentially expanded to the Svyatogorsk area (Donetsk Oblast). If RF claims of fighting in the eastern sector are accurate, this represents a tactical shift toward the Siverskyi Donets river line.
Deep Rear: UAF has demonstrated the ability to strike Lipetsk Oblast (Yelets) and maintain persistent pressure on Rostov (Taganrog) simultaneously, stretching RF air defense (AD) resources.
Weather: Constant extreme cold (-20°C) remains a decisive factor, favoring static defenses but increasing the vulnerability of personnel and vehicle hydraulics during movement.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Offensive Maneuver: The reported engagement in Svyatogorsk (0446Z) suggests RF is probing for weaknesses in the UAF northern flank of the Donetsk sector. This may be intended to fix UAF reserves currently supporting the Pokrovsk/Dobropillya axis.
AD Posture: RF MoD claims 11 UAV interceptions overnight (0441Z). However, successful hits in Yelets and ongoing reports from Taganrog indicate saturation of RF AD sectors in the Lipetsk-Rostov corridor.
Internal Security: The large-scale FSB sweep in the "DPR" (0439Z) indicates high concern regarding rear-area stability and potential partisan involvement in facilitating UAF deep strikes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Asymmetric Strike Campaign: UAF continues to prioritize the destruction of RF military-industrial capacity (Atlant Aero) and logistics hubs (Yelets). The use of persistent, multi-wave UAV attacks is effectively bypassing local RF electronic warfare (EW) and AD.
Force Posture: UAF maintains a defensive posture in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, despite ongoing ballistic and UAV threats. Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia (0445Z-0456Z) indicate high readiness but continued exposure to missile threats.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative Escalation: Maria Zakharova (RF MFA) has issued direct threats against the Ukrainian leadership (0446Z), framing the conflict as a struggle for "accountability" for journalist deaths. This is a standard escalation of rhetoric to justify further civilian infrastructure targeting.
External Framing: RF mil-bloggers are focusing on Polish civil defense measures (0431Z) to create a narrative of imminent NATO-led regional escalation, likely to distract from the "Frozen Rear" energy crisis in Russia.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify "probing" attacks in the Svyatogorsk sector while maintaining the missile/UAV threat over Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia to prevent UAF from shifting units to the Pokrovsk salient.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF push from the Svyatogorsk-Lyman axis combined with a mechanized breakthrough toward Dobropillya, attempting to encircle UAF groupings in Northern Donetsk during the height of the freeze.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Risk: Continued UAV/Missile strikes on Ukrainian logistics hubs in the Northeast (Kharkiv/Sumy).
Tactical Alert: Monitor the Svyatogorsk axis for confirmed mechanized movement; verify if RF has crossed the Siverskyi Donets in any localized sector.
RF Rear: Expect further UAF "asymmetric persistence" strikes on Rostov-region energy or industrial nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Svyatogorsk Combat Verification: Need immediate visual/SIGINT confirmation of RF ground activity in East Svyatogorsk. Determine if this is a reconnaissance-in-force or a major maneuver.
[HIGH] Yelets Strike BDA: Identify the specific target in Yelets (rail yard, oil depot, or military garrison) to refine UAF deep-strike intent.
[MEDIUM] Polish Civil Defense Legitimacy: Verify if the "brochure distribution" is a genuine Polish state action or a sophisticated RF deep-fake/disinfo campaign to destabilize the border region.
