STRATEGIC STRIKE CONFIRMED (0409Z, Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): The nighttime attack on Taganrog targeted the "Atlant Aero" aircraft manufacturing plant. This confirms the UAF shift toward high-value military-industrial nodes in the RF strategic rear.
NEW UAV WAVE (0400Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Additional groups of Shahed-type UAVs have entered Sumy region from the Kursk (RF) axis. This represents a secondary surge following the initial overnight saturation.
KINETIC IMPACT: KHARKIV LOGISTICS (0403Z-0426Z, OVA/RBK/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Confirmed strike on a "Nova Poshta" (civilian logistics) terminal in the Kharkiv suburbs. Casualties: 2 KIA, 5 WIA. This continues the pattern of targeting Ukrainian dual-use and civilian logistics infrastructure.
RF TACTICAL TECH DEPLOYMENT (0403Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-RF sources report the deployment of "Mangas" heavy hexacopter UAS to the front lines. These units are likely intended for heavy-lift munitions delivery to exploit UAF defensive gaps during extreme cold.
RF OFFENSIVE MANEUVER (0407Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Elements of the RF 150th Division are reportedly conducting "leveling" operations toward Dobropillya. This aligns with efforts to expand the Pokrovsk salient.
RF REAR AD ACTIVITY (0415Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 11 UAF drones overnight across multiple regions. This acknowledges the scale of the UAF "asymmetric persistence" operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The air domain remains the primary theater of active engagement. A new ingress point via Sumy (0400Z) indicates a widening of the strike front beyond the Zhytomyr/Western vector identified in the previous 6h.
Weather: Extreme cold (-20°C) continues to degrade battery life for tactical UAVs and complicates the maintenance of outdoor air defense batteries.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities (UAS): The introduction of "Mangas" heavy hexacopters (0403Z) suggests RF is seeking to compensate for reduced FPV efficiency in cold weather by using larger, more stable platforms with higher payload capacities.
Ground Forces: The focus on the Dobropillya axis (0407Z) by the 150th Division indicates a Russian attempt to broaden the Pokrovsk offensive, likely aiming to sever logistics between Dobropillya and the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad hub.
Logistics/Sustainment: The strike on Atlant Aero (0409Z) disrupts RF aircraft maintenance and potentially drone development, impacting long-term sustainment of the air campaign.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF air defenses are actively engaging new UAV groups in Sumy. The strike on civilian logistics in Kharkiv (Nova Poshta) highlights the continued difficulty of defending decentralized civilian infrastructure against high-velocity/ballistic threats.
Offensive Posture: UAF maintains a high tempo of deep strikes, successfully penetrating RF airspace to hit industrial targets in Taganrog despite claims of 11 interceptions by RF MoD.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda: RF MoD is pushing a narrative of "PR groups" with flags (0359Z) to minimize reported UAF tactical successes in occupied areas. Simultaneously, state media is weaponizing casualty figures (45 deaths) to frame UAF strikes as "terrorist" actions for international and domestic consumption (0406Z).
Diversionary Content: Russian state channels are disseminating localized environmental data (microplastics in Moscow River, 0424Z) to project a sense of normalcy despite the "Frozen Rear" crisis and ongoing deep strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will utilize the new UAV wave in Sumy to fix Ukrainian mobile AD groups in the north, while the 150th Division attempts to seize high ground near Dobropillya before the mid-day temperature "peak" (which remains well below freezing).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the "Mangas" heavy UAS to conduct a saturation strike on the repair facilities of the 155th OMBr in Pokrovsk, combined with a mechanized push, aiming to break the "kill zone" and force a retreat toward the wider Donetsk-Dnipro border.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Threat: Continued UAV strikes in Sumy and Kharkiv; ballistic threat persists for central and eastern logistics hubs.
RF Rear: Possible follow-up strikes by UAF on the Rostov axis to capitalize on disrupted AD coverage following the Taganrog hit.
Tactical Front: Escalating pressure on Dobropillya and the western approaches to Pokrovsk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Atlant Aero BDA: Detailed satellite/ELINT assessment of the Taganrog strike to determine if production of specific airframes/UAVs was halted.
[HIGH] Mangas UAS SIGINT: Need frequency profiles for the new "Mangas" heavy hexacopters to adjust EW jamming protocols.
[MEDIUM] Dobropillya Force Composition: Verify if the 150th Division is being reinforced by reserve units for a full-scale breakthrough attempt.
