MASS MISSILE STRIKE (0350Z, Tsaplienko/Monitors, MEDIUM): Reports indicate approximately 20 ballistic missiles were launched against Ukrainian targets overnight. This marks a significant escalation in kinetic intensity following the earlier UAV-only saturation phase.
ACTIVE UAV MANEUVERS (0331Z, 0354Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Approximately 30 enemy UAVs remain in Ukrainian airspace. A concentrated group of ~10 UAVs transitioned from northern Kyiv region across the reservoir toward Zhytomyr, confirming a persistent westerly bypass tactic.
RF STRATEGIC REAR UNDER ATTACK (0356Z, Two Majors/Governor, HIGH): Air defenses are currently active in Taganrog (RF) as of 0356Z. This indicates a shift in UAF long-range strike focus from the Lipetsk axis (cancelled at 0322Z) to the Rostov/Azov axis.
KINETIC IMPACT: KHARKIV (0343Z, Tsaplienko/OVA, HIGH): Confirmed fatalities (2) following strikes in the Kharkiv region. This underscores the lethality of the "Western Vector" UAV/missile approach identified in the previous 24h cycle.
POKROVSK SECTOR FRICTION (0357Z, TASS/MoD, LOW): RF MoD claims to have destroyed a UAF "PR group" near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). UNCONFIRMED and likely a counter-narrative to reported UAF 155th OMBr tactical successes in the same sector.
INTERNATIONAL DIVERSION (0332Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): US State Department has issued an immediate evacuation order for citizens in Iran due to escalating civil unrest. This potential regional instability may impact the RF-Iran drone/missile supply chain if logistics hubs are disrupted.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict remains in a multi-domain surge. The air domain is currently saturated with approximately 30 Shahed-type UAVs and the remnants of a 20-missile ballistic wave. The transit of UAVs toward Zhytomyr (0354Z) indicates an expansion of the strike zone into Western Ukraine.
Key Terrain: The Kyiv Reservoir continues to be utilized by RF forces for terrain-masking of low-altitude UAVs (0354Z), complicating detection for ground-based visual observers.
Weather: Extreme cold (-20°C) persists. This remains a critical factor for both the efficiency of interceptors and the impact of infrastructure strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities (Air/Missile): RF has demonstrated the ability to coordinate a mixed strike package (Shahed + ~20 Ballistic Missiles) under extreme weather conditions. The threat to Mykolaiv, Kherson, and eastern regions (0347Z, 0354Z) suggests a "rolling" ballistic threat following the initial UAV wave.
Tactical Adaptation: RF is using the "Oreshnik" narrative (0346Z) to project technological overmatch and deter Western AD enhancement, despite no confirmed use of that specific system in the last 6 hours.
Ground Forces: RF activity in Zaporizhzhia remains high with "Shaman" units engaged in tactical attrition (0359Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF Air Force is managing a multi-vector threat. The detection and tracking of the ~10 UAVs moving toward Zhytomyr indicates maintained radar coverage despite the complexity of the reservoir approach.
Deep Strike Operations: The attack on Taganrog (0356Z) demonstrates UAF's ability to maintain "asymmetric persistence" against RF strategic rear nodes, likely targeting logistics/aviation hubs supporting the current missile wave.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda: TASS is aggressively pushing narratives of Western AD impotence (Oreshnik blocks) and UAF "PR" failures in Pokrovsk. This is likely intended to mask the reality of the Taganrog strike and the ongoing heating crisis in RF-occupied territories.
Alerting: Ukrainian Air Force (PS ZSU) maintains high-frequency, transparent reporting to counter panic caused by the mass ballistic wave.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will focus the remaining 30 UAVs on Zhytomyr energy infrastructure to create a "secondary freeze zone" similar to Kyiv, while maintaining ballistic pressure on the Mykolaiv/Kherson logistics corridor to prevent UAF reinforcements from moving toward the Zaporizhzhia front.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the Iranian unrest (0332Z) as a pretext to launch a massive "final" winter wave of missiles, calculating that Western diplomatic attention is split, specifically targeting Kyiv’s remaining operational power nodes (TPP-5/6) to force a total evacuation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Threat: Zhytomyr and Western Kyiv regions for UAV strikes; Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Eastern Ukraine for ballistic missile arrivals.
RF Rear: Continued UAF drone activity in the Rostov/Taganrog sector is expected as UAF seeks to disrupt launch sites.
Tactical Front: High-intensity urban combat in Pokrovsk; expect RF to attempt a "morning push" following the overnight missile saturation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Taganrog BDA: Determine the target of the Taganrog attack (Airfield vs. Port) and the effectiveness of RF AD in that sector.
[HIGH] Ballistic Impact Assessment: Identify the impact points of the ~20 ballistic missiles reported at 0350Z. Priority: Energy vs. Military targets.
[MEDIUM] Iran-RF Logistics: Monitor if civil unrest in Iran impacts the departure of transport aircraft (Il-76/An-124) from Iranian drone manufacturing hubs.
