KINETIC: SUSTAINED TACTICAL AVIATION STRIKES (0146Z, UAF, HIGH): Confirmed repeated launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. This indicates a sustained sortie rate by RF Su-34/35 aircraft, continuing the pressure observed earlier at 0123Z.
STRATEGIC: IRAN-RF MILITARY-TECHNICAL ACCORD (0152Z, RBK-Ukraine/Bloomberg, HIGH): Intelligence reports confirm Iran has transferred billions of dollars worth of missiles and UAVs to the Russian Federation. This reinforces the long-term sustainment of the current "Shahed" saturation tactics.
REGIONAL: IRANIAN AD READINESS ALERT (0152Z, NgP Razvedka, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-RF sources suggest Iranian air defense forces are being moved to "normal combat" (high alert) status. This may indicate concerns of external retaliation or a proactive defensive posture following the confirmation of expanded missile transfers.
KINETIC: PERSISTENT UAV THREAT (0144Z, UAF, HIGH): Ongoing movement of UAV groups; previous vectors (Chernihiv, Kyiv, Sumy) remain active, maintaining the saturation of the northern AD screen.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The RF is maintaining a dual-track air offensive. The northern/central sectors (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy) are facing a "volume-based" UAV saturation, while the eastern sectors (Donetsk, Kharkiv) are facing a "precision-based" KAB campaign.
Environmental Factors: Extreme cold (-20°C) continues to strain UAF mechanical systems and personnel endurance. The "Frozen Rear" crisis in Kyiv (800 buildings without heat) is now entering its most critical overnight window.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF has moved from "interdiction" to "sustained bombardment" in the east. The "repeated" KAB launches (0146Z) suggest the RF is operating an established "shuttle" of tactical aviation, likely exploiting the diversion of UAF AD assets to the UAV swarms in the north.
Logistics & Sustainment: The confirmation of a multi-billion dollar Iranian supply line (0152Z) suggests that the current UAV expenditure rate is sustainable for the RF in the medium term.
Command & Control: Coordination between long-range UAV assets and tactical aviation (KABs) appears synchronized to maximize the cognitive load on UAF regional command centers.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting multiple penetration vectors simultaneously. AD units in the east are forced to operate under the threat of KABs while managing the drone-saturated environment.
Vulnerabilities: The persistent UAV presence over the Kyiv Reservoir and northern Oblasts prevents the redistribution of mobile AD groups to the east where KAB strikes are escalating.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda: RF-aligned channels are highlighting Iranian military readiness (0152Z), likely to signal "strategic depth" and deter Western intervention in the logistics chain.
Resilience: The UAF official reporting remains the primary source for factual kinetic updates, countering RF claims of total AD suppression.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF tactical aviation will continue KAB cycles through dawn (approx. 0600Z) to suppress UAF frontline fortifications in Donetsk. UAV groups in the north will continue to loiter and maneuver to force the UAF to keep radars active, exposing them to potential SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported Iranian missile stocks to launch a ballistic strike (Fath-360 or Iskander-M) against the TPP-5/TPP-6 energy nodes in Kyiv while the city’s AD is distracted by the current northern UAV swarm.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Donetsk/Kharkiv: High kinetic intensity. Expect continued KAB strikes and potential dawn ground assaults by RF motorized rifle units to exploit "softened" defensive lines.
Kyiv/Northern Sector: Continuous UAV harassment until sunrise. High risk of localized heating infrastructure failure due to extreme cold and potential secondary strikes.
Strategic: Monitor Iranian AD posture for signs of regional escalation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] KAB Impact Assessment: Identify if the "repeated" strikes in Donetsk (0146Z) are targeting the 155th OMBr's drone-operator "kill zones" in Pokrovsk.
[HIGH] Iranian Missile Deployment: Determine if the "billions in sales" reported by Bloomberg includes the immediate arrival of Fath-360 ballistic missiles in the RF Southern Military District.
[MEDIUM] EW Signature Tracking: Monitor for K-15 EW complex activity in coordination with the latest KAB launches to see if the RF is effectively masking Su-34 ingress/egress.
