KINETIC: IMPACTS IN ODESA (0106Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Confirmed "arrivals" (impacts) in Odesa following the "massive" Shahed-type UAV raid reported at 0043Z. Visual evidence confirms active strikes within city limits.
KINETIC: NORTHERN AERIAL PENETRATION (0111Z, UAF, HIGH): UAV groups detected in central Chernihiv Oblast and northern Kyiv Oblast, indicating a deepening penetration of the northern AD screen.
KINETIC: SECOND WAVE NORTHERN ENTRY (0122Z, UAF, HIGH): New groups of UAVs entering Ukrainian airspace via Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, suggesting a sustained multi-wave effort to saturate northern sectors.
KINETIC: TACTICAL AIR STRIKES (0123Z, UAF, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, marking an escalation from long-range UAVs to frontline precision-guided munitions.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The RF has expanded the geography of the air offensive. While Odesa remains the primary kinetic focus in the south, the entry of UAVs into Chernihiv and northern Kyiv indicates a flanking maneuver likely intended to bypass the dense AD concentrations around Kyiv or to fix mobile AD groups in the border regions.
Weather Factors: Sub-zero temperatures (-20°C) persist. The integrated use of KABs in the east and UAVs in the rear maximizes the stress on both frontline troop rotations and civilian infrastructure resilience (the "Frozen Rear").
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is executing an integrated "High-Low" attack profile.
Low: Massed "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs to saturate radar and identify AD gaps.
High: KAB launches in Donetsk/Kharkiv to strike tactical positions while AD is preoccupied with UAV swarms.
Capabilities: The entry of new UAV groups at 0122Z confirms the RF maintains significant launch capacity in the Sumy/Chernihiv border sectors. The use of KABs indicates RF Su-34/Su-35 platforms are operating within range of the frontline, potentially exploiting AD focus on the Odesa/Kyiv UAV threats.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF AD is currently engaged in at least four distinct sectors (Odesa, Kyiv/Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Donetsk). The "arrival" reports in Odesa (0106Z) suggest the saturation threshold of local point-defense systems may have been reached.
Readiness: Extreme cold continues to degrade drone battery performance and mechanical reliability of ground equipment.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda: Pro-RF sources (Colonelcassad) were quick to disseminate visual confirmation of strikes in Odesa (0106Z), aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the "massive" raid and signal the failure of local AD.
Narrative Control: The focus on "arrivals" in Odesa serves to validate RF strategic bombing efficacy during the extreme winter window.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to cycle UAV waves through the Sumy/Chernihiv corridor to force Kyiv's AD into a state of perpetual engagement. Simultaneously, KAB strikes in the east will intensify to soften defensive lines in Donetsk before a potential dawn ground assault.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the UAV saturation in northern Kyiv/Chernihiv as a screen for a high-velocity ballistic or hypersonic strike (Iskander-M/Kinzhal) against power-generation or command nodes in Kyiv within the next 2-4 hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kyiv/Northern Sector: High probability of air defense engagements continuing through 0600Z.
Odesa: BDA phase likely to begin at dawn; expect further UAV harassment to prevent repair crews from accessing strike sites.
Donetsk/Kharkiv: High kinetic activity due to KAB launches; frontline units must maintain high readiness for mechanized follow-up attacks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Odesa BDA: Specifically, determine if the "arrivals" at 0106Z targeted the port's grain terminals or energy substations.
[HIGH] KAB Targets: Identify specific impact zones in Donetsk and Kharkiv to determine if the RF is targeting 155th OMBr drone control centers or logistical hubs.
[MEDIUM] EW Impact: Monitor if the previously identified K-15 EW complexes are being used in coordination with the current KAB strikes to jam local AD telemetry.
