KINETIC: MASSIVE UAV ATTACK ON ODESA (0043Z-0056Z, UAF/RBK-UA, HIGH): A "massive" wave of Shahed-type UAVs has reached Odesa from the Black Sea. Local reports confirm multiple explosions within the city.
KINETIC: BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (0058Z, UAF, HIGH): New alert issued for ballistic missile launches originating from the east, following the expiration of previous alerts in Zaporizhzhia.
KINETIC: NORTHERN UAV VECTOR TO KHARKIV (0041Z, UAF, MEDIUM): New UAV units detected approaching Kharkiv from the north, supplementing the atypical western approach vectors identified in previous reports.
KINETIC: DNIPROPETROVSK UAV ACTIVITY (0034Z, UAF, MEDIUM): UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on a southwesterly course, likely targeting logistical hubs or transitioning toward southern sectors.
CASUALTY CLAIM: 110th OMBr OFFICER (0033Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Pro-RF sources claim the liquidation of Major Dmytro Andrusyk, Chief of Engineering for the 110th Mechanized Brigade, via UAV strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UNCONFIRMED.
GEO-POLITICAL: US-IRAN TENSIONS (0055Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Unconfirmed reports of US State Department urging citizens to depart Iran; potentially utilized as a narrative diversion from operations in Ukraine.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The RF is executing a synchronized multi-vector assault. While Odesa is the current focus of "massive" UAV saturation, the re-introduction of ballistic threats from the east indicates a "high-low" tactical mix designed to overwhelm Air Defense (AD) fire control.
Environmental Factors: Temperatures remain at a critical -20°C. Kinetic strikes on Odesa’s port and energy infrastructure are likely timed to maximize the humanitarian and technical strain of the "Frozen Rear" crisis.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is increasingly utilizing maritime approach vectors (Black Sea) to circumvent terrestrial AD. The "massive" designation by UAF Air Force (0043Z) suggests a higher density of airframes than the 13 units previously reported at 0012Z.
Targeting Priorities: Current activity suggests a shift toward:
Maritime Logistics: Pivdenne/Odesa port infrastructure.
Command & Control (C2): If the claim regarding the 110th OMBr Engineer Chief is accurate, it indicates a refined hunter-killer capability against specific tactical leadership in the rear.
Capabilities: The persistence of ballistic threats from the east (0058Z) confirms that RF maintains ready-to-launch Iskander or North Korean KN-23/24 batteries despite the high-volume UAV campaign.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Engagement: UAF AD is currently heavily engaged in Odesa. The "massive" nature of the wave increases the probability of "leakers" (UAVs penetrating the screen).
Status of 110th OMBr: The brigade’s engineering capability is a priority for verification following the reported loss of its chief. Engineering assets are critical for defensive fortifications and minefield maintenance.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Narrative Diversion: RF sources are amplifying external geo-political news (US/Iran) and internal US logistics issues (0055Z, 0057Z) to dilute focus on the humanitarian impacts of strikes in Kharkiv and Odesa.
Visual Propaganda: Pro-RF monitoring groups are circulating strike maps (0049Z) to project an image of total theater dominance and precision.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV saturation of Odesa for the next 2 hours to force AD depletion, followed by a precision ballistic or cruise missile strike on identified "blind spots" created by the saturation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The ballistic threat from the east (0058Z) materializes as a coordinated strike on the Dnipro River crossings or the Kyiv heating infrastructure while AD assets are fixed on the southern UAV waves.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Odesa/Southern Littoral: Expected high kinetic impact. Port operations will likely be suspended through the morning.
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: High risk of ballistic impacts within the hour.
Kharkiv: Continued multi-vector UAV harassment; monitor for secondary strikes on emergency response teams (double-tap tactics).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Personnel Verification: Confirm the status of Major Dmytro Andrusyk (110th OMBr). If confirmed, analyze the strike's signature to determine if it was a targeted assassination via reconnaissance-strike complex.
[HIGH] Odesa BDA: Identify specific impacts in the Odesa port zone to assess degradation of the maritime corridor.
[MEDIUM] Ballistic Signature: Determine the type of ballistic weapon launched from the east (0058Z) to differentiate between standard RF inventory and North Korean-supplied assets.
