KINETIC: ODESA/PIVDENNE UAV THREAT (0012Z-0024Z, AFU/Vaněk, HIGH): Approximately 13 Shahed-type UAVs detected transiting near Ochakiv (Mykolaiv Oblast) on a southwesterly heading toward Odesa and the port of Pivdenne.
KINETIC: KHARKIV CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE HIT (0025Z, RBK-Ukraine/Mayor, HIGH): Confirmed UAV strike on a children's sanatorium in the Shevchenkivskyi district. Fire reported on-site; BDA ongoing.
KINETIC: RENEWED ZAPORIZHZHIA BALLISTIC THREAT (0026Z, AFU, HIGH): High-speed ballistic target detected inbound for Zaporizhzhia city/vicinity immediately following a brief period of cleared alerts.
KINETIC: ZELENODOLSK CLEARANCE (0004Z, Vaněk, MEDIUM): UAV threat to Zelenodolsk (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) has been neutralized or passed.
INFO-OPS: MASSIVE MISSILE CLAIM (0024Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim over 20 "Iskander" missiles have struck targets in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Dnipro. UNCONFIRMED and likely exaggerated for psychological effect.
INFO-OPS: FOREIGN CASUALTY CLAIMS (0017Z, TASS, LOW): RF state media claiming 750 Colombian nationals serving in the UAF have been "liquidated." UNCONFIRMED; part of a broader campaign targeting international volunteer morale.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The RF air campaign has shifted its weight from the Central/Zhytomyr axis (reported at 2359Z) toward the Southern Littoral (Odesa/Pivdenne) and the Eastern industrial hubs (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia).
Key Terrain: The port of Pivdenne is a critical economic node; the current UAV vector suggests an attempt to degrade maritime logistics or the energy infrastructure supporting the Odesa region.
Weather: Extreme cold (-20°C) persists. Any infrastructure damage in Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia will have immediate humanitarian consequences due to the temperature.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is maintaining a high-tempo "pulsed" attack pattern. They are clearing alerts in some sectors (Kyiv, 0009Z) only to launch or detect new threats (Zaporizhzhia, 0026Z) minutes later. This prevents recovery and keeps AD crews in a state of high fatigue.
UAV Vectors: The use of the Mykolaiv/Ochakiv corridor for Odesa-bound UAVs indicates a preference for maritime approach vectors to minimize terrestrial radar detection time.
Capabilities: The claim of 20+ Iskanders (0024Z) suggests the RF is attempting to project a "massed fire" narrative even if actual impacts are more localized.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF AD is successfully clearing sectors (Zelenodolsk, Kyiv suburbs), but the saturation of Odesa (13+ units) will test the southern mobile fire groups.
Civil Readiness: Kharkiv municipal services are responding to the sanatorium strike. The rapid clearing/re-engaging of sirens in Kyiv (0010Z) indicates a highly volatile sensor environment.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Psychological Operations: RF-aligned sources are pushing "mercenary" casualty narratives (Colombians) and high-volume missile counts to overshadow the humanitarian impact of strikes on civilian infrastructure like the Kharkiv sanatorium.
Diplomatic Context: Reports on UK troop deployment preconditions (0017Z) are circulating, likely being used by RF actors to bolster "NATO intervention" narratives.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The 13 UAVs currently approaching Odesa/Pivdenne will attempt to strike port or energy distribution nodes within the next 30-45 minutes. The high-speed target toward Zaporizhzhia is likely an Iskander-M or North Korean-supplied ballistic missile intended to strike during the transition between air alerts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the UAV saturation in the South to mask a secondary cruise missile wave (Kalibr) from the Black Sea targeting the "dark" energy sectors in Western Ukraine/Zhytomyr mentioned in the previous sitrep.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Odesa Region: High risk of kinetic impacts and potential port infrastructure damage.
Zaporizhzhia: Immediate threat of ballistic impact; residents must remain in hard cover.
Kharkiv: Continued attrition via UAV; focus on fire containment at civilian sites.
Kyiv: While currently clear, the "toggling" of alerts indicates the capital remains a secondary/fixation target for upcoming waves.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Zaporizhzhia BDA: Urgent requirement to identify the impact point and nature of the 0026Z ballistic target.
[HIGH] Odesa AD Effectiveness: Monitor intercept rates of the 13-UAV group to determine if the maritime approach vector is bypassing mobile fire groups.
[MEDIUM] UK Preconditions: Clarify the source and validity of the "UK troop deployment" claims to prevent RF-narrative capture.
