KINETIC: KYIV PERIPHERAL GRID COLLAPSE (2330Z-2344Z, RBK/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Near-total power and water outages reported in Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel following strikes on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure.
KINETIC: ZHYTOMYR INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (2331Z, Colonelcassad/AFU, HIGH): Confirmed "Geran" (Shahed-type) UAV strike on a 330 kV electrical substation in Beloshitsy, Zhytomyr Oblast. Thermal imagery BDA suggests significant damage.
KINETIC: VOLNYANSK BALLISTIC THREAT (2355Z-2357Z, AFU/Vaněk, HIGH): High-speed ballistic targets detected moving toward Zaporizhzhia and Volnyansk immediately following UAV saturation.
KINETIC: KHARKIV SUBURBAN ATTRITION (2344Z-2351Z, Syniehubov, HIGH): Fatalities confirmed in Kharkiv suburbs; at least two additional civilians killed as new UAV groups approach from the east.
AIRBORNE: WESTWARD UAV TRANSIT (2331Z-2357Z, AFU, HIGH): Multiple UAV groups are transiting Zhytomyr Oblast on headings toward Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Novohrad-Volynskyi.
INFO-OPS: IRANIAN LINKED MESSAGING (2347Z-2355Z, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): RF-linked channels are explicitly framing the strikes as "retaliation for Iran" and criticizing the performance of Western-supplied Air Defense (AD) systems.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The RF is executing a multi-axis deep strike operation targeting the energy inter-ties between Kyiv and Western Ukraine. By striking the 330 kV node in Zhytomyr and the peripheral substations in the Kyiv Oblast (Irpin/Bucha), the enemy is attempting to isolate the capital's power grid.
Key Terrain: The 330 kV substation in Beloshitsy (Zhytomyr) is a critical junction for energy transmission from western generating assets toward the central region. Its degradation in -20°C weather is a force multiplier for civilian distress.
Weather: Extreme cold (-20°C) continues to exacerbate the impact of power outages, turning tactical infrastructure damage into a strategic humanitarian crisis.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is utilizing a "Saturation-to-Precision" sequence. Massive UAV swarms (as seen in Zelenodolsk, 2353Z) are being used to deplete AD interceptors and fix sensors, followed immediately by high-speed ballistic strikes on high-value targets like Volnyansk (2357Z).
Intent: The enemy's focus has shifted from the city centers to the "Satellite Infrastructure" (Irpin, Bucha, Volnyansk). This likely bypasses the most dense AD umbrellas concentrated directly over major administrative hubs.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF AD is currently engaged across four oblasts (Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia). The movement of UAVs toward Rivne and Khmelnytskyi suggests the RF is probing for gaps in the western AD corridor.
Civil Readiness: Severe water and power loss in the Kyiv suburbs (2330Z) will likely trigger immediate emergency relocation requirements or the deployment of military heating points to the Irpin/Bucha axis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Disinformation/Propaganda: RF sources (NgP Razvedka) are attempting to internationalize the conflict's narrative, framing strikes on Kryvyi Rih as a surrogate for Middle Eastern tensions ("Kryvyi Rih will answer for Iran"). This is likely intended to weaken Western domestic support by associating the Ukraine war with broader, more controversial geopolitical escalations.
Capability Mockery: Direct targeting of the US Secretary of Defense-designate's reputation regarding AD effectiveness (2355Z) indicates a coordinated psychological effort to undermine confidence in Western security assistance.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAV groups currently over Zhytomyr will attempt to strike regional distribution nodes in Rivne or Khmelnytskyi within the next 2-3 hours to further fragment the national grid. Ballistic strikes on Zaporizhzhia/Volnyansk will continue as long as UAVs remain in the vicinity to provide sensor saturation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the confirmed blackout in Irpin/Hostomel to launch low-altitude cruise missiles through the "dark" sector where civilian radar/observation might be degraded, targeting remaining thermal power plants (TPP-5/6) or government centers in Kyiv.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Risk: Prolonged utilities failure in Kyiv suburbs; humanitarian emergency in Irpin/Bucha due to -20°C temps.
Zaporizhzhia: High probability of ballistic impacts in Volnyansk area; emergency services should remain on high alert.
Western Ukraine: Increased UAV activity expected in Rivne and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Zhytomyr BDA: Confirm if the 330 kV substation in Beloshitsy is totally non-functional or if bypass circuits remain.
[HIGH] Volnyansk Impact: Identify the specific target of the 2357Z ballistic launch—assess if it targeted the local rail node or energy storage.
[MEDIUM] IR/Thermal Signatures: Monitor for "high brightness" signatures in Zaporizhzhia/Zelenodolsk to confirm BDA on energy assets following the 2355Z missile alerts.
