KINETIC: MASS BALLISTIC SURGE (2306Z-2316Z, KMVA/Air Force/Vaněk, HIGH): A multi-wave ballistic missile attack targeted Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region. At least 3-4 ballistic targets were tracked toward Kyiv; 5+ toward Zelenodolsk/Volnyansk.
KINETIC: ZELENODOLSK SATURATION (2313Z-2328Z, Air Force/Vaněk, HIGH): A high-density "mixed strike" is underway against Zelenodolsk. ~20 UAVs (Shahed-type) and at least 5 ballistic missiles (including launches from Crimea) are currently converging on the town.
KINETIC: KHARKIV CASUALTIES (2317Z, Syniehubov, HIGH): Confirmation of one fatality and three injuries following strikes in the Kharkiv suburbs. New UAV groups are now approaching Kharkiv from the east (2319Z).
TACTICAL: DONETSK STRIKE (2304Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF sources released footage claiming the destruction of UAF positions in Hryshyne (west of Pokrovsk).
GEOPOLITICAL: U.S.-IRAN ESCALATION (2320Z-2329Z, Operatsiya Z/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports indicate U.S. consideration of kinetic strikes on Iran and the imposition of 25% tariffs on nations trading with the Iranian regime.
AIR DEFENSE: KYIV INTERCEPTION ANOMALY (2311Z-2315Z, RBK/Vaněk, MEDIUM): Explosions heard in Kyiv; however, tracking data for several ballistic targets "ceased to fix," potentially indicating successful high-altitude interceptions or the use of sophisticated RF decoys.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a period of intense "Rear Area Suppression." The RF is currently executing a coordinated strike against three primary nodes: Kyiv (Command/Control), Kharkiv (Regional Hub), and the Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih axis (Energy/Industrial).
Key Terrain: Zelenodolsk is critical as a major energy node; the massing of ~20 drones and 5 ballistics on this single point suggests an attempt to cause catastrophic grid failure.
Weather: Continued extreme cold (-20°C) remains the primary force multiplier for RF infrastructure strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing "Time-on-Target" synchronization, where ballistic missiles from the NE and Crimea are timed to impact just as large UAV swarms reach the terminal phase. This is designed to overwhelm Air Defense (AD) fire control.
Cryptic Signaling: Pro-RF channel NgP Razvedka (2316Z) signaled a successful impact in the Kryvyi Rih/Zelenodolsk area ("too bright"), possibly referring to a strike on an electrical substation or fuel depot.
Course of Action: RF is likely exploiting the focus on Kyiv's AD to strip protection from the Dnipropetrovsk energy infrastructure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UAF AD is currently red-lined. Multiple ballistic threats to Kyiv (2315Z) were engaged, but the diversion of resources to the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia sector is stretching the interceptor inventory.
Civil Resilience: Kharkiv regional authorities are managing casualties in real-time, but the suburban strikes indicate a shift from city-center targeting to the logistics/habitation fringe.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Psychological Operations: RF-linked channels are emphasizing the "brightness" of strikes, likely to lower morale in frozen urban centers.
Strategic Distraction: The heavy focus on U.S.-Iran news in RF channels (2320Z) serves to frame the Ukraine theater as a secondary front in a global conflict, aiming to undermine Western long-term commitment.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The ~20 drones currently over Zelenodolsk will impact or be engaged within the 0000Z-0030Z window. Impact on the energy grid in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is highly probable.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the current AD saturation to launch a second "Oreshnik" or advanced ballistic missile at a previously un-targeted high-value asset (e.g., a critical bridge or remaining thermal power plant) while MFGs are distracted by the UAV swarm.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Risk: Infrastructure failure in Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih.
Kyiv: Likely to remain under periodic ballistic "harassment" alerts to prevent the movement of AD assets to the south.
Kharkiv: Continued "East-Vector" UAV arrivals will likely focus on suburban logistics nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Zelenodolsk BDA: Determine if the "too bright" report (2316Z) corresponds to a strike on the Zelenodolsk TPP or a major substation.
[HIGH] Ballistic Tracking: Investigate why ballistics "not fixed" (2311Z) over Kyiv—identify if this indicates a new RF stealth capability or a specific UAF EW/AD success.
[MEDIUM] Hryshyne Strike: Confirm the extent of damage to UAF positions in Grishino (2304Z) and identify the units affected (likely supporting the Pokrovsk defense).
