KINETIC: KHARKIV STRIKES & CASUALTIES (2230Z-2252Z, Sinegubov/Suspilne, HIGH): Multiple explosions confirmed in Kharkiv. One 42-year-old male civilian injured in a strike outside the city limits.
KINETIC: MULTI-AXIS UAV THREAT (2233Z-2255Z, Air Force, HIGH): New loitering munition (Shahed-type) vectors detected: Sumy from the north; Kharkiv from "multiple directions"; and Zaporizhzhia from the southeast.
AIR DEFENSE: KYIV ALL-CLEAR (2249Z, KMVA, HIGH): The air alert in the capital has been terminated following the ballistic threat reported in the previous sitrep. No immediate reports of impact within city limits.
GEOPOLITICAL: U.S. IRAN EVACUATION ORDER (2232Z-2250Z, Kotenok/NgP RaZVEdka, HIGH): Further confirmation of U.S. State Department directives for citizens to depart Iran immediately via Turkey or Armenia.
STRATEGIC BDA: Lviv Aviation Plant Claim (2242Z, TASS/RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims a January 9th "Oreshnik" (ballistic) strike successfully disabled the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant. UNCONFIRMED by UA sources; likely intended to degrade morale regarding F-16 sustainment.
KINETIC: KHARKIV LOGISTICS TARGETING (2237Z, NgP RaZVEdka, LOW): RF sources claim a strike on a "Nova Poshta" terminal in Kharkiv, alleging its use for military logistics. UNCONFIRMED.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The aerial engagement zone has shifted from the capital toward regional hubs. Kharkiv is currently the focal point of a multi-vector UAV saturation effort. New vectors toward Sumy and Zaporizhzhia indicate a broadening of the strike envelope to stress regional Air Defense (AD) density.
Weather/Environment: Extreme cold (-20°C) continues to impact both drone battery performance and the severity of any infrastructure damage. Grid stability remains the primary strategic vulnerability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing "terminal-phase saturation" in Kharkiv, approaching from multiple directions simultaneously (2245Z) to confuse local AD tracking and maximize the probability of a leaker hitting the city or its immediate logistics outskirts.
Strategic Messaging: The retroactive claim of using "Oreshnik" against Lviv (2242Z) serves a dual purpose: asserting technical overmatch (hypersonic/advanced ballistic) and signaling a long-term capability to deny F-16 maintenance deep in the UA rear.
Course of Action: RF is likely using the UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia as "pathfinders" or secondary targets to draw AD assets away from the Kharkiv and Dnipro corridors.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: Kyiv AD has successfully reset. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are now heavily engaged in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Resilience: Kharkiv ODA (Sinegubov) is providing rapid BDA and casualty updates, suggesting high administrative continuity despite the "multi-direction" UAV threat.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Logistics Disruption Narratives: RF-linked channels (NgP RaZVEdka) are specifically targeting "Nova Poshta" (2237Z), attempting to frame civilian logistical infrastructure as legitimate military targets. This may be a precursor to expanded strikes on civilian delivery hubs.
Iran Escalation: The synchronization of Iran evacuation news across RF "Voenkor" channels suggests an effort to prepare the domestic RF audience for potential disruptions in the Iranian drone/missile supply chain.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Kharkiv through the 0000Z-0400Z window, likely followed by a secondary missile wave once AD interceptors are depleted or positions are unmasked by the current swarm.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The "Oreshnik" claim is a psychological preparation for a new strike on a Western UA transit hub (e.g., Rzeszów-border logistics or energy nodes near the EU border) to test Western resolve during the Iran-related diplomatic crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Risk: Kinetic impacts in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia as UAV swarms reach terminal locations.
Logistics: Possible disruption to postal/logistics hubs in Eastern Ukraine if targeting of civilian delivery networks escalates.
Strategic: Monitor for UA official response to the "Oreshnik" / Lviv Aviation Plant claims to assess actual damage levels.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Lviv BDA: Verify the functional status of the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant. Assess if the Jan 9 "Oreshnik" claim correlates with known kinetic events and identify any degradation in F-16/MiG-29 maintenance capacity.
[HIGH] Kharkiv Terminal Strike: Confirm the specific location and nature of the "Nova Poshta" strike. Determine if it was a civilian or dual-use facility to refine RF targeting patterns.
[MEDIUM] SE Vector Origin: Identify the launch site for the Zaporizhzhia-bound UAVs (Primorsko-Akhtarsk vs. occupied Crimea/Zaporizhzhia) to estimate flight time and quantity.
