KINETIC: BALLISTIC THREAT TO KYIV & NORTH (2207Z-2208Z, KMVA/Air Force, HIGH): Active air alert in the capital and northern regions due to confirmed ballistic missile threats launched from the north.
KINETIC: KHARKIV STRIKES & UAV SATURATION (2211Z-2222Z, Sinegubov/Terekhov/Air Force, HIGH): A "high-speed target" (ballistic/supersonic) impacted the Kharkiv outskirts, resulting in fires. Simultaneously, a "large concentration" of UAVs is maneuvering around the city, likely for BDA or target saturation.
GEOPOLITICAL: U.S. IRAN POLICY ESCALATION (2201Z-2226Z, Operativno ZSU/Alex Parker, HIGH): Confirmed reports of 25% tariffs on nations trading with Iran. U.S. citizens have been issued an "immediate" directive to depart Iran via Armenia or Turkey.
KINETIC: NEW UAV VECTORS (2215Z-2227Z, Air Force, HIGH): UAVs detected transiting Northern Kherson toward Zelonodolsk (Dnipropetrovsk region) and Northern Zhytomyr toward Rivne.
INFORMATION OPS: GREENLAND NARRATIVE (2215Z, Starshiy Eddy, LOW): RF-linked sources are circulating claims of a U.S. Congressional bill to annex Greenland. UNCONFIRMED and assessed as a distraction narrative.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded into a multi-axis air campaign. RF is utilizing the "Northern Vector" for ballistic launches while simultaneously saturating the "Eastern Vector" (Kharkiv) and "Western Vector" (Zhytomyr/Rivne) with loitering munitions.
Weather/Environment: Extreme cold (-20°C) remains the decisive factor. Grid stability in Kyiv and the occupied South (Berdyansk/Mariupol) is at a breaking point; kinetic strikes are timed to maximize thermal degradation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation: RF is now synchronizing high-speed ballistic strikes with large-scale UAV swarms. The "large concentration" around Kharkiv (2219Z) suggests a "search and destroy" mission or a deliberate attempt to exhaust AD interceptors before a second missile wave.
Course of Action: RF is pushing UAVs deep into the West (Zhytomyr/Rivne). This suggests an intent to map AD corridors protecting Western logistical hubs or to target energy infrastructure that supports the cross-border rail network.
Logistics/Sustainment: The U.S. tariff announcement and evacuation order for Iran suggest a looming disruption in the RF-Iran military-industrial pipeline, potentially forcing RF to accelerate current missile expenditures before supply chains tighten.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
AD Posture: UA Air Defense is currently engaged in a multi-domain defense across Kyiv (Ballistics), Kharkiv (UAVs/Missiles), and the Western regions (UAVs).
Resilience: Local authorities in Kharkiv (Terekhov/Sinegubov) are actively managing fire suppression on the outskirts to prevent urban spread. The "Zelonodolsk" vector (2215Z) indicates a threat to the Kryvyi Rih power cluster.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Diplomatic Signaling: The rapid spread of the U.S.-Iran tariff news across both UA and RF channels indicates its perceived impact on the war's duration and supply.
Propaganda: The "Greenland" narrative (2215Z) appears to be an attempt by RF mil-bloggers to portray U.S. foreign policy as erratic or expansionist, likely intended for Global South audiences or as "noise" to drown out the Iranian evacuation news.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the Kharkiv UAV swarm to pin down AD assets while attempting a breakthrough ballistic strike on Kyiv or Dnipro energy infrastructure within the next 3-6 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The "Western Vector" UAVs (heading for Rivne) identify a gap in the AD screen, leading to a cruise missile or "Shahed" strike on the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant's distribution nodes or the Beskydy Tunnel logistics line.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Risk: Continued ballistic launches from the North (RF territory/Belarus) targeting Kyiv.
Kinetic: Expect impact reports from the Zhytomyr/Rivne axis as UAVs reach their terminal phases.
Infrastructure: Monitor for secondary grid failures in Kharkiv following the reported fires on the city outskirts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Kharkiv BDA: Identify the specific target hit on the Kharkiv outskirts (2222Z). Determine if it was a power substation or a military staging area.
[HIGH] Ballistic Launch Points: Confirm launch sites for the Kyiv ballistic threat (Bryansk vs. Kursk vs. Belarus) to refine early warning times.
[MEDIUM] Iran Logistics: Monitor for any "last-minute" heavy transport flights (Il-76/An-124) from Tehran to RF hubs before the U.S. tariff/evacuation window closes.
