INFRASTRUCTURE: BERDYANSK GRID COLLAPSE (2132Z, TASS/Balitsky, HIGH): Following the Mariupol blackout, a total power failure is now confirmed in occupied Berdyansk and the surrounding district. Occupation authorities cite an "accident," but timing suggests a coordinated UAF campaign against the Southern Occupation Grid.
KINETIC: MULTI-AXIS UAV SWARM & STRIKES (2149Z-2158Z, UA Air Force/Vanyok/RBK-UA, HIGH): Simultaneous UAV incursions detected heading for Kharkiv (from East and West), Odesa (from the sea), and Northern Kyiv (heading toward Zhytomyr). Explosions confirmed in Pavlohrad and Odesa.
GEOPOLITICAL: TRUMP IRAN TARIFFS (2149Z, TASS/RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Donald Trump has announced 25% tariffs on all countries conducting business with Iran. This represents a significant potential disruption to the RF-Iran drone/missile supply chain.
MARITIME: VENEZUELA TANKER INTERDICTION (2137Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): White House spokesperson Leavitt announced that only US-approved tankers will exit Venezuela; stateless vessels will be detained. This mirrors the UK "Shadow Fleet" seizure policy.
DIPLOMATIC: UNSC RHETORIC HARDENING (2134Z-2146Z, TASS/Nebenzya, HIGH): RF Representative Nebenzya stated Russia will pursue "military methods" until "realistic" negotiations are accepted, specifically threatening "harsh responses" to strikes on RF civilians.
INFORMATION OPS: DELEGITIMIZATION CAMPAIGN (2147Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF state media/proxy channels (Rozhin) have intensified narratives questioning President Zelenskyy's legitimacy ("stolen president").
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a "Symmetric Infrastructure Attrition" phase. While RF targets Kyiv/Dnipro's heating, UAF is systematically dismantling the energy architecture of the "Land Bridge" (Mariupol and now Berdyansk).
Weather: Extreme cold (-20°C) persists. Grid failures in occupied Berdyansk will likely cause immediate humanitarian and logistical strain on RF rear-area operations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Aviation/UAVs: RF has transitioned from "pathfinding" to "saturation." Current tracks show a sophisticated attempt to stretch UA Air Defense (AD) by attacking from the East (Kharkiv), South (Odesa), and North (Kyiv/Zhytomyr) simultaneously.
Tactical Shifts: Map data (2155Z) indicates renewed RF focus on the Western Flank of the Zaporizhzhia sector. This may be an attempt to secure ground near the failing energy nodes of Berdyansk.
Diplomatic Intent: Nebenzya’s comments (2135Z) suggest the RF is setting a formal diplomatic justification for a significant escalation in "retaliatory" strikes against Ukrainian civil-administrative centers.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Success: UAF is successfully leveraging long-range strike capabilities to create a "blackout zone" across the occupied south, likely aimed at freezing RF rail and port logistics in Berdyansk and Mariupol.
AD Posture: UA Air Force and mobile groups are actively engaged in multi-city defense. The detection of UAVs heading for Zhytomyr (2153Z) suggests RF is hunting for deep-rear Western equipment hubs or AD nodes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Reflexive Control: RF sources are pushing a claim that Zelenskyy supports "kidnappings" by the 225th Regiment (2156Z, UNCONFIRMED). This is likely a "mirror" narrative to counter international focus on RF forced deportations or to justify future "military methods."
Global Economy: The simultaneous announcements regarding Venezuela tankers and Iran tariffs suggest a tightening of the global energy/logistics squeeze on RF and its primary military suppliers.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the current multi-axis UAV swarm into the morning hours to identify gaps for a follow-on cruise missile strike on Pavlohrad (rail hub) and Dnipro (energy).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the Berdyansk/Mariupol blackout as a pretext for "asymmetric retaliation" against the Kyiv Reservoir dam or other critical hydro-infrastructure, as hinted at by the recent UAV terrain-masking maneuvers (1421Z daily report).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Sustained AD activity over Odesa, Kharkiv, and Zhytomyr. High risk of missile arrivals in Pavlohrad following current UAV probing.
Infrastructure: Expect reports of civilian hardship in Berdyansk; monitor for RF attempts to divert military generators to occupied administrative centers.
Diplomatic: Monitor for formal Iranian reaction to the 25% tariff announcement, which may impact the delivery of short-range ballistic missiles.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Berdyansk BDA: Determine if the Berdyansk outage is a result of kinetic strikes on the 330kV lines or localized sabotage/internal grid failure.
[HIGH] Pavlohrad Impact: Assess damage to Pavlohrad rail/logistics nodes following explosions (2149Z) to determine impact on Eastern Front supply lines.
[MEDIUM] Iran-RF Logistics: Monitor Omsk/Tehran airbridge for any sudden increase in flights following the US tariff announcement.
