KINETIC: DEEP STRIKE ON MARIUPOL GRID (2110Z-2118Z, Tsaplienko/Sternenko, HIGH): Ukrainian UAV strikes have caused a total blackout in occupied Mariupol and the surrounding Telmanove, Novoazovsk, and Starobesheve districts.
TACTICAL SUCCESS: RF AIR DEFENSE ATTRITION (2120Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF "SBS Birds" (Special Operations UAVs) confirmed the destruction of a P-18 "Prima" radar, a "Tor" SAM system, and a "Tunguska" SPAAG in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk sectors.
AERIAL OPS: SATURATION PROBING (2109Z-2119Z, UA Air Force/Vanyok, HIGH): "Chaotic" UAV movement detected over Kharkiv and approximately five Shahed-type UAVs approaching Odesa/Fontanka from the sea.
GEOPOLITICAL: IRANIAN INSTABILITY (2127Z, RBK-Ukraine/Zelenskyy, MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy characterized massive protests in Iran as a strategic threat to the RF-Iran alliance, while Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu condemned "external interference" in Tehran (2100Z, Alex Parker).
INFRASTRUCTURE: DNIPRO RESILIENCE (2118Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Mayor Filatov confirmed the deployment of mobile generators directly to high-rise residential buildings to bypass damaged grid nodes.
HYBRID OPS: PENTAGON "PIZZA INDEX" DISINFORMATION (2118Z, Operation Z, LOW): Russian proxy channels are circulating "high pizza order" data and unconfirmed B-52 movements (2111Z, Parker) as indicators of imminent US military escalation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: Operations have expanded into a reciprocal "grid war." While RF maintains pressure on Kyiv’s heating, UAF has successfully struck the power architecture of the occupied Southern Donbas (Mariupol sector).
Environment: Extreme cold (-20°C) continues to dictate the tempo. The failure of the Mariupol grid significantly increases the humanitarian burden on RF occupation authorities.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Dispositions: RF is utilizing "chaotic" UAV flight paths in Kharkiv (2109Z) to confuse AD radar and map remaining interceptor positions.
Asset Loss: The confirmed loss of a P-18 radar and "Tor" system (2120Z) indicates a localized degradation of RF’s short-to-medium range air defense envelope in the Zaporizhzhia sector, likely creating a window for further UAF deep strikes.
Logistics/Sustainment: RF is heavily reliant on the Iranian missile deal; however, internal Iranian unrest (2127Z) presents a potential risk to the delivery timeline or the stability of the supply chain.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Tactical Posture: UAF is demonstrating high-efficiency "asymmetric attrition." The use of specialized UAV units (SBS Birds) against high-value AD assets suggests a coordinated campaign to blind RF forces before larger operations.
Civil-Military Integration: The deployment of mobile generators in Dnipro (2118Z) represents an effective adaptation to the "Frozen Rear" crisis, maintaining urban viability despite localized grid failures.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Reflexive Control: RF state media continues to push the "Greenland Referendum" satire (2109Z) and "Nebenzya/UN" denials of civilian targeting (2126Z) to distract from the Mariupol blackout.
War Fever Narratives: The amplification of the "Pizza Index" and B-52 takeoffs (2111Z-2118Z) is designed to create a sense of global instability, potentially aimed at pressuring Western domestic audiences regarding the costs of escalation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a retaliatory missile strike on the Dnipro energy hub within the next 6 hours to offset the Mariupol blackout. The current UAV movement in Odesa and Kharkiv is likely a precursor to distract AD assets.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF integrates the newly acquired Iranian ballistic missiles (if delivery has occurred) into a synchronized strike against the Kyiv Reservoir and Dnipro mobile power nodes to cause a cascaded collapse of the central and eastern utility corridors.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Expect high kinetic activity in the Odesa and Kharkiv airspaces; residents should remain in shelters.
Infrastructure: Possible expansion of the Mariupol blackout as the regional grid destabilizes.
Hybrid: Continued focus on Iranian internal stability in official rhetoric; monitor for RF claims of "Western sabotage" in Iran.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Mariupol BDA: Confirm if the Mariupol blackout was caused by a single substation strike or a series of hits on the transmission line from the RF-integrated grid.
[HIGH] SBS Capabilities: Identify the specific UAV platform used by "SBS Birds" to successfully bypass "Tor" and "Tunguska" EW/AD screens.
[MEDIUM] US Stratofortress Verification: Confirm current US B-52H global posture to debunk or validate RF claims of "strategic takeoffs."
