KINETIC ALERT: BALLISTIC THREAT (1956Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): UAF Air Force has issued a warning of imminent ballistic missile deployment from the northeast. This aligns with previous predictions of a night-time saturation strike during extreme temperature troughs.
GOVERNMENT RESTRUCTURING (1933Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM-HIGH): Credible reports indicate the Verkhovna Rada will dismiss Prime Minister Shmyhal and Deputy PM Fedorov tomorrow for reassignment. This signals a major cabinet reshuffle aimed at economic/technological optimization ahead of diplomatic shifts (RBC-Ukraine, 1933Z).
STRATEGIC SIGNALING: UVB-76 ACTIVE (1955Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): The RF shortwave station UVB-76 ("The Buzzer"), historically linked to high-level military C2 and strategic readiness, has resumed active transmissions. This may indicate a heightened readiness state for RF strategic forces or a precursor to large-scale operations (Colonelcassad, 1955Z).
TACTICAL SUCCESS: SSO RAID (1955Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The 8th Special Operations Forces (SSO) Regiment conducted a successful winter raid in Donetsk, neutralizing an RF observation post in -15°C conditions. This demonstrates sustained UAF offensive capability despite environmental extremes (Operativno ZSU, 1955Z).
DIPLOMATIC PREPARATION: TRUMP ENVOYS (1949Z, Zelenskiy Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed daily contact with the incoming US administration's team, stating documents are "prepared for signing." This suggests a pivot toward a fast-tracked negotiation framework (Zelenskiy / Official, 1949Z).
LOGISTICAL ATTRITION: RF DRONE SHORTAGE (1950Z, Dva Maiora, MEDIUM): RF mil-bloggers have launched urgent fundraising for quadcopters in the Krasny Lyman sector, citing high loss rates. This confirms a "bottleneck" in RF tactical ISR supply (Dva Maiora, 1950Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains heavily contested in the Pokrovsk sector. RF "Tsentr" grouping is claiming mass destruction of UAF counter-attacking units (1959Z), though these claims remain unconfirmed.
Weather/Environment: Severe frost (-15°C) is now a primary combat factor. While RF logistics struggle (1950Z), UAF SSO continues specialized operations (1955Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Strategic Posture: The activation of UVB-76 (1955Z) suggests the RF is moving to a higher state of command readiness, potentially coordinating the ballistic threat identified by the UAF Air Force.
Tactical Pressure (Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk): RF forces are attempting to expand the zone of control westward from Pokrovsk, utilizing "Tsentr" grouping assets to suppress UAF mechanized reinforcements (1959Z).
Logistics: In the Krasny Lyman direction, RF units are increasingly dependent on volunteer fundraising for essential tactical UAVs, indicating that official MoD supply chains are failing to keep pace with attrition (1950Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF specialized units (SSO, Lyut, KORD) are maintaining high operational tempo (1930Z, 1955Z). The use of specialized police units for UAV operations suggests a multi-agency integration of drone assets to fill gaps in regular army formations.
Administrative Shift: The impending reassignment of Shmyhal and Fedorov (1933Z) likely aims to synchronize the Ukrainian cabinet with the "Davos format" and the new US negotiation track mentioned by the President (1949Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Hybrid Ops: Medvedev’s rhetoric regarding Greenland (1931Z) and trolling of the Trump administration serves as a distraction from internal logistical strains and the strategic signaling of UVB-76.
Diplomatic Pressure: Croatia’s public stance against territorial concessions (1951Z) highlights the friction within the EU/NATO coalition regarding potential peace terms.
Espionage: Reports of a GRU-linked diplomat's death in Cyprus (1950Z) indicate ongoing "silent" friction in the European rear.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will execute the ballistic strike from the NE within the next 2-4 hours, targeting energy nodes in Poltava or Kharkiv to exacerbate the "Frozen Rear" crisis.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The UVB-76 activation presages a multi-domain escalation, including a massive cyber-attack on banking/logistics synchronized with the ballistic strikes to maximize social panic ahead of the Cabinet reshuffle.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Ballistic missile defense systems in the NE corridor must remain at maximum readiness.
Political Transition: Anticipate market and administrative volatility as the Verkhovna Rada processes high-level resignations at 0800Z tomorrow.
Tactical: Continued high-intensity urban combat in the Pokrovsk outskirts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] UVB-76 Analysis: Determine if recent transmissions contain new code sequences or are standard "maintenance" signaling to assess the level of strategic threat.
[HIGH] Pokrovsk BDA: Verify RF claims of "mass destruction" of UAF armor in the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk seam.
[MEDIUM] Ballistic Origin: Identify specific launch platforms (Iskander-M vs. North Korean KN-23) used in the NE threat vector to refine interception profiles.
