EMERGING THREAT: COMBAT UGV DEPLOYMENT (1900Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF 3rd Motor Rifle Division (20th Army, Zapad Group) has deployed "Courier" Unmanned Ground Combat Vehicles (UGVs) equipped with 12.7mm NSVT machine guns and EW modules against UAF strongholds. This marks a shift toward mechanized robotic assaults to mitigate infantry attrition.
MARITIME INTERDICTION ESCALATION (1902Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH): "Rubikon" units have continued kinetic strikes on civilian tankers near Odesa. RF information channels are actively framing these as "reciprocal actions," signaling a sustained campaign against Ukraine’s maritime corridor (Operatsiya Z, 1902Z).
REAR AREA KINETIC ACTIVITY: YELETS (1909Z, Artamonov, MEDIUM): RF Air Defenses and EW systems are actively engaged over Yelets (Lipetsk Oblast). This confirms the expansion of UAF deep-strike operations beyond the previously reported Orel TPP targets (Artamonov, 1909Z).
STRATEGIC PERSONNEL SHIFT (1916Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has reassigned Volyn OVA head Ivan Rudnytskyi to the position of Deputy Head of the SBU. This suggests a prioritization of counter-intelligence and border security in the northwestern sector (RBK-UA, 1916Z).
TACTICAL SUCCESS: 36TH MARINE BRIGADE (1906Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, HIGH): UAF marines captured RF personnel near Kostiantynivka, including a local collaborator from the Melitopol district, providing actionable intelligence on RF recruitment and forced contracts (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 1906Z).
AERIAL THREAT: KAB LAUNCHES (1924Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Sumy region, likely aimed at disrupting UAF logistics supporting the Kursk salient or border defense (Air Force UA, 1924Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains static, but the operational depth is expanding. RF is increasingly utilizing "stand-off" tactical assets (KABs) and "unmanned-forward" tactics (UGVs) to probe UAF defenses.
Weather/Environment: Extreme cold (-15°C to -20°C) persists. The focus remains on the "thermal battle"—RF targeting heat/power, while Ukraine incentivizes energy repair crews with "winter bonuses" (RBK-UA, 1911Z).
Strategic Resources: Ukraine has announced its first lithium mining project, signaling long-term economic resilience and an intent to integrate into the Western high-tech supply chain despite the conflict (RBK-UA, 1928Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Adaptation (UGVs): The use of "Courier" UGVs (1900Z) suggests RF is testing robotic platforms to clear minefields or suppress strongpoints where human infantry loss is deemed unacceptable. The integration of on-board EW with these UGVs indicates a sophisticated attempt to counter UAF FPV drones.
Air Defense (AD): Buk-M3 systems in the South Donetsk direction claim successful intercepts of HIMARS and GMLRS (Voin DV, 1900Z). This indicates a high density of RF tactical AD in sectors where they expect UAF counter-battery fire.
Internal Security (Russia): A communication blackout in Kamchatka Krai (1925Z, ASTRA) and AD activity in Lipetsk suggest high internal friction within RF rear-area security, likely due to increased UAF asymmetric pressure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF remains in a high-readiness defensive posture. The reassignment of Rudnytskyi to the SBU (1916Z) may indicate a crackdown on internal security threats or preparation for increased pressure on the Belarusian border.
Tactical Successes: The 36th Marine Brigade (1906Z) continues to demonstrate high efficacy in the Donetsk sector, maintaining the ability to take prisoners and gather human intelligence (HUMINT) despite the extreme weather.
Resilience Measures: Government-mandated bonuses for energy repair crews (1914Z) are critical to maintaining grid stability during the forecasted "thermal shock" period.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: Russian sources are increasingly focused on the "Rubikon" maritime strikes (1902Z) and UGV successes (1900Z) to project an image of technological parity and dominance in the Black Sea.
UAF Strategic Comms: Emphasis on strategic resource development (lithium) and administrative reform (SBU reshuffle) aims to project stability to international partners, specifically the incoming US administration.
Geopolitical Context: Reports of Iran seeking dialogue with the US (1904Z, RBK-UA) could signal a potential future disruption in the RF-Shahed supply chain, though this remains a long-term diplomatic factor rather than a tactical one.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv to soften defenses ahead of the anticipated massed missile strike. The "Courier" UGVs will be used more frequently in the Zapad sector to test UAF drone-defense saturation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF uses the Yelets/Lipetsk AD activity as a pretext for a significant "retaliatory" strike on Kyiv's remaining thermal power infrastructure (TPP-5/6) within the next 6 hours to trigger a humanitarian collapse during the night-time temperature trough.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of massed UAV/missile saturation targeting the energy grid between 0000Z and 0400Z. Continued tactical pressure from RF UGVs in the Kupiansk/Lyman axis (Zapad Group) is expected. UAF maritime assets near Odesa should remain at maximum alert for loitering munition strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] UGV Technical Specs: Obtain SIGINT on the frequency ranges used by the "Courier" UGV's EW module to provide counter-measures for drone operators.
[HIGH] Yelets Strike Assessment: Confirm BDA for the Yelets/Lipetsk area to determine if RF logistics or AD assets were successfully neutralized.
[MEDIUM] SBU Reshuffle Intent: Assess if the Volyn-to-SBU transfer is linked to specific intelligence regarding Belarusian border incursions.
