MARITIME STRIKE: PANAMANIAN TANKER HIT (1704Z, Operativno ZSU/Kuleba, HIGH): A Russian UAV successfully struck a Panama-flagged tanker awaiting vegetable oil loading at a Ukrainian port. This confirms earlier unconfirmed reports of maritime fires and marks a significant escalation in RF targeting of commercial shipping.
DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT: NORWEGIAN AID (1711Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): Norway has committed a $400M aid package following a meeting in Kyiv between President Zelenskyy and FM Espen Barth Eide, specifically targeting military and energy sector resilience.
KYIV ENERGY STATUS: FRAGILE RESTORATION (1704Z, DTEK/Tsapliienko, HIGH): All Kyiv residences have been reconnected to the grid, but emergency outages persist in the Left Bank, Holosiivskyi, and Pecherskyi districts due to system strain in -20°C conditions.
POKROVSK SECTOR: RF MARGINAL GAINS (1721Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF sources claim an advance into the Shcherbakova settlement on the northern outskirts of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). If confirmed, this indicates a bypass of UAF "kill zones" noted in earlier reports.
ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV THREAT (1724Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new wave of strike UAVs has been detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from the southern vector (Azov direction).
UK TROOP POLICY (1720Z, Starshe Eddy/UK Media, MEDIUM): The Chief of the Air Staff (UK) reportedly stated that London will not deploy troops if a safety threat exists, which RF propaganda is framing as a collapse of the "coalition of the willing."
RF REAR DEFENSE (1729Z, TASS/MoD RF, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims the destruction of 56 UAF UAVs over Russian regions within a four-hour window, suggesting high-intensity UAF deep-strike activity.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded into a clear maritime interdiction phase. The strike on the Panamanian tanker (1704Z) suggests RF is attempting to enforce a de facto blockade in response to the UK’s "Shadow Fleet" seizure authorization.
Environmental Factors: Temperatures remain at -20°C. While power is technically restored to Kyiv homes (1704Z), the closure of supermarkets due to localized outages (1725Z) indicates a breakdown in commercial logistics and civilian "warm-chain" security.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Shifts: In the Pokrovsk sector, RF is likely attempting to exploit the extreme cold to penetrate northern outskirts (Shcherbakova) while UAF drone battery life is compromised by sub-zero temperatures.
Maritime Course of Action: RF is using loitering munitions against stationary commercial vessels (1718Z). This is a low-cost, high-impact method to drive up insurance premiums and deter neutral shipping.
Aviation: RF continues to amplify claims regarding the strike on the Lviv Aviation Repair Plant (1716Z), likely to project a narrative of degraded UAF F-16 maintenance capabilities.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
UAF Posture: High-skill tactical drone operations continue; the 13th Brigade "Khartiya" is successfully interdicting high-speed motorcycle "banzai" assaults (1716Z).
Strategic Reserves: The $400M Norwegian package (1711Z) provides critical sustainment for energy infrastructure and military hardware as winter attrition peaks.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Demoralization Narratives: RF channels are heavily amplifying statements by UK military leadership regarding troop deployment (1720Z) to create a perception of Western abandonment.
Economic Distraction: Reports of the "auction" of Domodedovo Airport (1705Z) may be an attempt to signal economic restructuring or distract from the impact of sanctions on Russian infrastructure.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV pressure on Zaporizhzhia (1724Z) and the Kyiv energy grid to force UAF to expend limited AD interceptors. Expect a continuation of the maritime drone campaign against any vessel entering the grain/oil corridor.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed mechanized breakout in the Pokrovsk/Shcherbakova axis (1721Z) synchronized with a total blackout of the Kyiv Left Bank, intended to spark civilian panic and administrative collapse.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued UAV strikes on energy nodes in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. Maritime transit in the Black Sea is now a HIGH risk (kinetic strike zone). UAF units in Pokrovsk must prepare for intensified RF infantry infiltration under the cover of the night/freeze.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Shcherbakova Confirmation: Verify RF presence in northern Pokrovsk outskirts via geolocated drone footage or ELINT to determine if the 155th OMBr "kill zone" has been bypassed.
[HIGH] Tanker Damage Assessment: Determine the extent of the damage to the Panamanian vessel and if it resulted in a spill or blockage of port access.
[MEDIUM] UK Policy Context: Verify the exact wording of the UK Air Chief’s statement to counter RF "abandonment" narratives in the domestic Ukrainian information space.
