BALLISTIC THREAT REPRIEVE (1644Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): The threat of ballistic missile employment from the Voronezh vector has been cleared; however, high-readiness posture remains due to technical launch capabilities.
UAV THREAT SHIFT: KRYVYI RIH (1651Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Strike UAVs have been detected moving toward Kryvyi Rih from the north, indicating a redirection of the "Southern Vector" previously noted near Zaporizhzhia.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV STABILIZATION (1634Z, DTEK/RBC-UA, HIGH): Emergency power outages on Kyiv’s Right Bank have been partially lifted. Stabilization schedules are now active in Shevchenkivskyi, Podilskyi, Obolonskyi, Solomianskyi, and Sviatoshynskyi districts.
TECHNICAL ADAPTATION: GERAN-5 (1632Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim the introduction of a "Geran-5" loitering munition variant. Details suggest iterations in range, EW resistance, or payload over the Shahed-136/Geran-2 series.
TACTICAL KINETIC: ZAPORIZHZHIA TOS-1A (1633Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems by the 35th Combined Arms Army confirmed in the Zaporizhzhia sector against UAF engineering positions.
UNCONFIRMED NAVAL INCIDENT: ODESA (1642Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Reports of a burning vessel off the coast of Odesa. Sourcing is contradictory; currently treated as unconfirmed/potential disinformation or incidental fire.
STRATEGIC COORDINATION: RU-IRAN (1642Z, TASS, HIGH): Sergey Shoigu and Iranian counterpart Ali Larijani held high-level talks to coordinate against "external interference," signaling tightening military-political integration.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather/Environment: The extreme cold (-20°C) remains the dominant environmental factor. While Kyiv has stabilized some power grids (1634Z), the technical strain on the "Frozen Rear" infrastructure persists. Ground mobility is restricted to established routes.
Air Domain: The tactical situation has shifted from a ballistic focus to a renewed multi-axis UAV probe. The threat to Kryvyi Rih (1651Z) suggests the enemy is searching for gaps in central Ukrainian AD.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Weapon Systems: The deployment of TOS-1A in Zaporizhzhia (1633Z) indicates RF is prioritizing the destruction of UAF defensive fortifications and engineering works. This likely supports a localized offensive to seize tactically significant high ground or nodes.
Technical Iteration: The "Geran-5" (1632Z) suggests a continuous upgrade cycle aimed at circumventing UAF electronic warfare (EW) and mobile AD groups.
Naval Claims: The report of a burning vessel near Odesa (1642Z) may be a Russian attempt to project maritime threat following the UK's "Shadow Fleet" seizure announcement.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Infrastructure Resilience: UAF/DTEK engineering teams have successfully transitioned Kyiv from emergency to stabilization schedules (1634Z), mitigating the immediate risk of total humanitarian collapse in the capital despite the freeze.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force successfully managed the ballistic alert window; mobile AD units are now re-orienting to intercept the Kryvyi Rih-bound UAVs.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Hybrid Narratives: RF state media is mocking UAF efforts to draft security guarantees for the incoming US administration (1644Z), while also pushing bizarre narratives regarding US "annexation" of Greenland (1640Z) to distract from domestic issues or Eastern European theater developments.
Personnel Signaling: The appointment of a Colonel accused of war crimes in Irpin (Sergey Karasev) to Samara Vice-Mayor (1654Z) serves as an internal signal of "untouchability" for RF officers and a psychological provocation against Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue using the Kryvyi Rih-bound UAVs to map AD positions. We anticipate a localized mechanized push in the Zaporizhzhia sector supported by the TOS-1A strikes recorded earlier.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Geran-5" swarm targeting the newly stabilized Kyiv energy nodes during the peak-load evening hours, combined with a re-initiation of the Voronezh ballistic threat to overwhelm the mid-tier AD envelope.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The tactical focus shifts to Kryvyi Rih and the Zaporizhzhia line. Expect continued UAV maneuvers through the night. The energy situation in Kyiv is stable but remains "fragile" given the -20°C forecast.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Geran-5 Technical Specs: Obtain SIGINT or physical wreckage data to identify the differences between "Geran-5" and previous iterations (specifically frequency bands for EW jamming).
[HIGH] Odesa Maritime Verification: Confirm the status of the vessel reported "burning" off Odesa (1642Z) via satellite imagery or coastal radar to determine if this was a kinetic strike or disinformation.
[MEDIUM] Samara Internal Shift: Monitor if the appointment of Karasev (1654Z) indicates a wider trend of "veteran" integration into civilian governance to bolster domestic military-political control in RF.
