BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT: VORONEZH VECTOR (1601Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAF Air Force has issued a critical alert regarding the threat of ballistic missile employment originating from the Voronezh region (RF).
AERIAL MANEUVER: ZHYTOMYR VECTOR (1628Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Strike UAVs previously over northern Kyiv have changed course to the West, now threatening the Zhytomyr region. This represents a continued expansion of the "Western Vector" noted in the 1555Z report.
EXTREME WEATHER ALERT: JAN 13-15 (1608Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Confirmed forecast of sustained -20°C temperatures and snow/ice accumulation across Ukraine. This will exacerbate the ongoing "Frozen Rear" infrastructure crisis.
AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE: ODESA SECTOR (1614Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): An enemy reconnaissance UAV was detected over the Odesa region; UAF air defense (AD) assets were actively engaged in interdiction.
TACTICAL STRIKES: DONETSK KAB EMPLOYMENT (1605Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Donetsk region.
STRATEGIC REAR ALERT: LIPETSK AIR DANGER (1628Z, Lipetsk Gov, HIGH): Russian authorities have declared an air danger regime in the Lipetsk region (RF), indicating potential UAF drone activity or counter-strike operations.
NARRATIVE SHIFT: UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT (1608Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources are amplifying claims that the UK will not deploy troops to Ukraine if there is a risk to their safety, likely aimed at eroding Ukrainian confidence in Western security guarantees.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Weather/Environment: The anticipated temperature drop to -20°C and "snow rolls" (1608Z) are now confirmed operational factors. This will significantly degrade ground mobility and increase the failure rate of civilian power/heating infrastructure already under stress.
Northern/Western Sector: The UAV threat has bypassed the Kyiv reservoir corridor and is pushing further west toward Zhytomyr (1628Z). This suggests the enemy is probing for AD gaps in the rear logistics hubs.
Southern Sector: Activity in Odesa (1614Z) and the approach of UAVs toward Zaporizhzhia from the south (1613Z) indicate a coordinated effort to fix AD assets across the entire southern coast and river line.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Strike Methodology: The threat of ballistics from Voronezh (1601Z) combined with multi-axis UAVs suggests a "high-low" strike profile. Ballistics provide the heavy kinetic impact while UAVs serve as decoys or pathfinders for technical AD exhaustion.
Tactical Change: RF is maintaining high-tempo KAB strikes in Donetsk (1605Z) despite the extreme cold, suggesting that Russian tactical aviation is prioritizing ground support in the Pokrovsk/Donetsk axis regardless of environmental costs.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Readiness/Training: The General Staff confirmed the continuation of EUMAM training cycles in Poland (1620Z). This is a critical indicator that long-term force generation and professionalization of the UAF are proceeding despite the current domestic infrastructure crisis.
Active Defense: UAF AD is showing high responsiveness in the Odesa sector (1614Z), successfully identifying and engaging recon assets that typically precede missile strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Coordinated Propaganda: Russian state actors and milbloggers are simultaneously pushing themes of UK "abandonment" (1608Z) and internal Georgian political instability (1601Z). This is a classic hybrid effort to project Western disunity and regional chaos.
Religious/Soft Power: Continued attacks on the Ecumenical Patriarch (1607Z) indicate a Russian intent to weaponize Orthodox Church politics as part of its influence operations in the Baltics and Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch the Voronezh-based ballistic package within the next 2-4 hours to coincide with the arrival of UAV swarms in the Zhytomyr/Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia sectors. The objective is likely critical energy nodes or military command centers while the grid is most vulnerable to the cold.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed ballistic strike on Western Ukrainian logistics (Zhytomyr/Lviv corridor) targeting international aid arrival points, timed with a domestic disinformation wave claiming the "collapse" of the US security guarantee document.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High alert for ballistic impacts across Central and Western Ukraine. Continued UAV maneuvers are expected to test the western-most AD boundaries. Expect humanitarian pressure in Kyiv to peak as -20°C temperatures set in overnight.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Voronezh Launch Platforms: Identify specific units and launch platforms (Iskander-M or potentially more "Oreshnik" test beds) active in the Voronezh region.
[HIGH] Zhytomyr Vector Targets: Determine if the UAV shift toward Zhytomyr (1628Z) is targeting the Ozerne airbase or rail infrastructure.
[MEDIUM] Lipetsk Activity: Clarify the nature of the "air danger" in Lipetsk—assess if this reflects a successful UAF deep-strike operation or an RF false-flag/defensive drill.
