STRATEGIC MANDATE: US SECURITY GUARANTEES (1518Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has ordered the finalization of a formal security guarantee document with the United States for high-level review, signaling a move to codify long-term defense commitments.
TACTICAL SHIFT: OREKHIV ENVELOPMENT (1521Z, TASS/Marochko, MEDIUM): RF sources claim the capture of Novoboykovskoye (Zaporizhzhia) and the commencement of an envelopment maneuver targeting the UAF stronghold of Orekhiv.
MARITIME ISR: ODESA UAV THREAT (1505Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A Russian reconnaissance UAV has been detected over the Black Sea near Odesa. UAF AD assets are currently engaged. Assessed as fire-spotting for coastal/maritime strikes.
INTERNAL SECURITY: MOBILIZATION EVASION CRACKDOWN (1500Z, Gen Prosecutor, HIGH): Ukrainian authorities interdicted a multi-region scheme facilitating illegal border crossings for draft evaders, involving over 5.8 million UAH.
STRATEGIC SIGNALING: NATO RESOLVE (1500Z, Poddubny/Rutte, HIGH): NATO SecGen Mark Rutte confirmed that RF "Oreshnik" strikes are interpreted as intimidation tactics and will not result in a cessation of Alliance support.
MOLDOVAN ALIGNMENT: UNIFICATION DISCOURSE (1503Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): President Maia Sandu publicly signaled support for Moldova-Romania unification in the event of a referendum, citing the deteriorating regional security environment.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa): The frontline in Zaporizhzhia is destabilizing following RF claims of capturing Novoboykovskoye. This suggests an attempt to bypass the primary defensive line at Orekhiv. Near Odesa, the presence of a maritime recon UAV (1505Z) indicates a widening of the ISR umbrella to include coastal logistics and grain corridor infrastructure.
Strategic Rear (Kyiv/National): The focus remains on two fronts: infrastructure survival (800 buildings without heat at -20°C, per 1454Z report) and administrative integrity. The registry hacks (1413Z) and the high-value corruption busts (1500Z) indicate a state under significant non-kinetic stress.
Weather Factor: Persistent -20°C temperatures continue to degrade battery life for FPV/UAV operations and increase the logistics burden for heating/fuel across all sectors.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Manuever: RF "Vostok" grouping (1500Z) appears to be transitioning from frontal assaults to wide envelopment near Orekhiv. By targeting Novoboykovskoye, they aim to force a UAF withdrawal from fortified positions to avoid encirclement.
UAS Operations: RF MoD is highlighting "Unmanned System Forces" (1506Z), confirming the systemic integration of FPV teams at the platoon/company level to maintain pressure during the cold snap.
Hybrid Ops: RF sources are actively circulating a "near-miss" narrative (1519Z) regarding a strike on Western officials in Ukraine to deter diplomatic visits and international oversight.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Strategic Posture: UAF is prioritizing the "Guarantee of Security" document (1518Z, 1520Z) as a diplomatic counterweight to RF escalation.
Kinetic Response: DSHV (Air Assault) units are maintaining high-tempo drone strikes despite the weather (1504Z), specifically targeting RF personnel and logistics "presents."
Maritime Defense: Air Force units near Odesa are actively intercepting ISR leakers to prevent high-precision missile follow-on strikes against port facilities.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Disinformation Alert: RF-linked channels (Operation Z, 1506Z) are promoting a narrative that former FM Kuleba claims Ukrainian society is ready for territorial concessions. This is assessed as a coordinated influence operation to undermine domestic morale and Western resolve.
Narrative Conflict: While RF emphasizes the "Oreshnik" threat (1500Z), NATO and Ukrainian sources are framing it as a sign of RF desperation and a failure to break the Alliance (1513Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify reconnaissance-in-force around Orekhiv to confirm UAF second-line dispositions following the Novoboykovskoye maneuver. Concurrently, a maritime-launched missile strike on Odesa/Mykolaiv is likely within 12-24 hours, following the current UAV spotting mission.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the envelopment near Orekhiv to trigger a broader collapse of the southern front, combined with a saturation strike on Kyiv's remaining energy nodes during the peak of the cold front tonight.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect increased kinetic activity in the Orekhiv sector. Air defense alerts are likely for Odesa and the southern coastline. Diplomatic tension will rise as the US-Ukraine security document moves toward finalization, potentially triggering Russian "pre-emptive" rhetorical or kinetic escalation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Orekhiv Geometry: Immediate BDA and imagery required to confirm the status of Novoboykovskoye and the extent of the RF "envelopment" maneuver.
[HIGH] UK Missile Capability: Monitor for confirmation/specs of the "new long-range missile" mentioned by RF sources (1502Z).
[MEDIUM] Odesa UAV Signature: Identify the specific UAV model near Odesa (e.g., Mohajer-6, Orlan-10, or a newer variant) to assess the likely payload of the subsequent strike package.
