AIR THREAT: KHARKIV UAV APPROACH (1445Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Russian UAVs detected approaching Kharkiv from the west. This atypical vector suggests either a flanking maneuver or transit from launch sites in the Belgorod/Kursk border regions.
INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV HEATING CRISIS (1454Z, Klitschko/RBK-UA, HIGH): Approximately 800 residential buildings in Kyiv remain without heat. Given the confirmed -20°C cold front (1418Z previous sitrep), this represents a critical humanitarian and morale vulnerability.
TACTICAL RECON: ZAPORIZHZHIA SPOTTING (1446Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): An enemy reconnaissance UAV is active near Zaporizhzhia, assessed as a spotter for indirect fire/missile strikes. UAF assets are currently engaged in interception.
INTERNAL SECURITY: PERM BRIDGE SABOTAGE CLAIM (1440Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): FSB claims to have intercepted a "terrorist attack" by Ukrainian special services targeting the Chusovoy railway bridge in Perm Krai. Assessed as likely partisan activity or FSB narrative construction to justify domestic crackdowns.
COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE: TREASON SENTENCING (1458Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): A former Ukrainian military cadet has been sentenced to 15 years for high treason, specifically for providing tactical and recruitment-related intelligence to RF handlers.
HYBRID OPS: RELIGIOUS FRACTURING NARRATIVE (1443Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): Russian Foreign Intelligence (SVR) is alleging that the Constantinople Patriarch, supported by the UK, is intensifying a religious "schism" in the Baltics.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Northern Sector (Kyiv): The operational focus has shifted from active kinetic strikes to infrastructure survival. The lack of heat in 800 buildings (1454Z) during extreme sub-zero temperatures creates a "frozen rear" effect, potentially diverting military engineering assets to civil support.
Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv): The UAV threat from the west (1445Z) indicates RF is attempting to bypass established AD corridors to the north and east of the city.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Continued presence of reconnaissance UAVs (1446Z) confirms RF intent to exploit the recent tactical breach at Belogorye (0959Z Daily Report) with precision fires.
Russian Strategic Rear: The alleged incident at the Chusovoy bridge (Perm Krai) highlights the vulnerability of RF rail GLOCs over 1,500km from the front line.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is utilizing "Oreshnik" missile rhetoric to degrade NATO's resolve (1447Z). Tactically, they are maintaining high-frequency UAV reconnaissance to map AD gaps during the cold snap.
Internal Security: The FSB’s focus on the Perm bridge suggests a heightened threat perception regarding Ukrainian long-range sabotage or partisan cells targeting the Trans-Siberian/Urals rail network.
Course of Action: RF is combining kinetic pressure (UAVs over Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia) with psychological pressure (heat crisis in Kyiv and "Oreshnik" threats) to force a defensive culmination.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF Air Force is actively engaging low-RCS targets over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
Counter-Intelligence: The successful prosecution of the treason case (1458Z) indicates an effective internal sweep of potential RF assets within military training institutions.
Logistics: The Kyiv heating deficit (1454Z) is the primary non-kinetic constraint on force readiness in the capital region, as personnel may be redirected to assist in civilian emergency response.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Propaganda: RF is framing the UK's role in Baltic religious affairs as "piracy" and "schism-building" (1430Z, 1443Z) to undermine British-Baltic military cooperation.
Strategic Signaling: NATO Secretary General Rutte’s comments on the "Oreshnik" system (1447Z) acknowledge the psychological impact of the weapon while framing it as an attempt to break Western support.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a saturation UAV/missile strike targeting Kyiv's remaining energy/heat nodes within 12 hours to weaponize the -20°C weather and force a mass civilian displacement or unrest.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the Western-vector UAV approach to Kharkiv (1445Z) to conduct a deep-strike mission against logistics hubs or HQs that have been positioned based on traditional "threat from the east" AD geometry.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect high-intensity AD activity over Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. The civil situation in Kyiv will likely deteriorate as night-time temperatures drop further, potentially requiring the deployment of State Emergency Service (DSNS) reserves.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Kharkiv UAV Vector: Determine the exact launch point of the UAVs approaching from the west (Sumy/Poltava border or RF territory).
[MEDIUM] Perm Sabotage Details: Verify if the Chusovoy bridge incident involved actual kinetic damage or was an FSB staged event.
[MEDIUM] Oreshnik Readiness: Monitor for any movement of transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) associated with intermediate-range systems in the Kapustin Yar or western RF regions.
