AIR ALERT: BALLISTIC THREAT RE-EMERGES (1345Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new threat of ballistic missile employment from the southern vector has been declared, superseding the 1318Z clearance.
CYBER/REAR: GOVERNMENT REGISTRIES OFFLINE (1356Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Critical Ukrainian Ministry of Justice registries, including the Unified Registry of Debtors and the State Registry of Civil Status Acts (DRACS), are currently non-functional. Cause (kinetic vs. cyber) is not yet confirmed.
INTERNAL SECURITY: SBU LEADERSHIP CONFIRMED (1340Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): The Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee has officially refused to dismiss SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk, solidifying C2 stability within the intelligence services.
BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): LVIV STRIKE (1355Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM): Russian MoD and multiple state media outlets have explicitly identified the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant as the target of the Jan 9 "Oreshnik" strike, claiming the facility is now disabled.
FRONTAL COMBAT: POKROVSK SECTOR (1343Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): The "SKELETON" (Skelya) Regiment is engaged in high-intensity daily urban/suburban combat in the Pokrovsk direction, reporting successful repelling of Russian assault groups.
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: KHERSON SHELLING (1331Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Russian artillery fire on the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson killed a 79-year-old civilian.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia): The operational tempo is high. A renewed ballistic threat (1345Z) indicates a potential second wave of strikes following the morning's activity. Kherson city remains under heavy indirect fire (1331Z).
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk): The situation remains the most kinetically intense. While RF claims progress in Berestok (previous sitrep), UAF units like the Skelya Regiment (1343Z) are maintaining high-readiness defensive postures, indicating a fluid frontline where positions are contested hourly.
Western Sector (Lviv): If RF claims regarding the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant (1355Z) are accurate, the UAF has lost a critical node for fixed-wing maintenance (F-16/MiG-29). This aligns with the RF strategy of targeting the "long-tail" of Western military aid.
Internal Rear: The outage of Ministry of Justice registries (1356Z) creates an immediate administrative and potentially logistical bottleneck, affecting legal documentation and civil governance.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is transitioning from the "demonstration phase" of the Oreshnik system to a "justification phase." By flooding the information space with BDA claims (TASS, Kotsnews, MoD), they aim to validate the weapon's precision and strategic utility.
Tactical Changes: In the South, the RF is utilizing persistent artillery harassment of civilian centers (Kherson) to fix UAF resources and suppress local morale while preparing for larger missile sorties.
Internal RF Adaptation: The appointment of a war veteran accused of crimes in Ukraine as Samara’s Vice-Mayor (1342Z) suggests the "Time of Heroes" program is accelerating, integrating combatants into domestic political structures despite international legal standing.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
C2 Continuity: The retention of Vasyl Malyuk (1340Z) ensures that the SBU’s counter-intelligence and sabotage operations (including recent Caspian strikes) maintain their current operational trajectory without leadership disruption.
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Force is maintaining a high state of alert in response to fluctuating ballistic threats from the south (1345Z).
Tactical Success: The Skelya Regiment's performance in Pokrovsk indicates that despite RF pressure, elite UAF formations are still achieving tactical overmatch in localized engagements (1343Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Strategic Signaling: Pro-RF channels are framing the "Oreshnik" strike as a direct ultimatum to NATO (1359Z), attempting to leverage the strike to create a rift between Kyiv and its Western backers.
Iranian Posture: Tehran is projecting a "ready for war, but open to talk" stance (1331Z), likely aimed at deterring US escalation while maintaining strategic ambiguity regarding their support for Russia.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a limited ballistic strike from the southern vector (Crimea/Black Sea) within the next 3-6 hours targeting energy or logistics hubs. Concurrently, they will intensify the "Oreshnik" propaganda to overshadow any UAF tactical gains in the East.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated cyber-kinetic attack where the current registry outages (1356Z) are exploited to mask a major ground push in the Pokrovsk sector, utilizing the administrative chaos to delay the activation of UAF reserves.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High alert for southern Ukraine due to ballistic threat. Expect continued information operations regarding the Lviv strike. UAF must prioritize the restoration of digital registries to prevent administrative paralysis.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Registry Outage Root Cause: Determine if the Ministry of Justice outage (1356Z) is a result of a cyber attack, hardware failure, or collateral damage from kinetic strikes.
[HIGH] BDA Verification: Need independent satellite or ground-level imagery of the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant to confirm the "disabled" status claimed by RF MoD (1355Z).
[MEDIUM] Ballistic Vector: Identify the specific launch platforms (land-based Iskander vs. sea-based Kalibr/Zircon) involved in the 1345Z alert.
